“Filling the hand up before we outta here”. Lol. Yes that is ominous to say the least from the sibling.
As was his lip reading “This is why I’m out” after the Draymond confrontation. My eyes blushed when I saw that.
You are right: Harbaugh’s teams do get tight in these spots. The Indiana game, a tight game Indiana had no business being in (except for the weak but still relevant lookahead spot effect) showed the cracks in the armor a week early. That could DEFINITLEY happen vs. OSU, a highly flawed team that it must be noted, can still score...on anyone at any time.
Bettors here are all over Michigan? Why?
Well OSU just gave up 51 to Maryland. And Purdue rocked them. Their defense is beyond suspect. But they most certainly can score on anyone, even Michigan.
But if you look at the cappers here, they don’t want to touch the spread. They want the ML. The problem with that is this: If you won’t be laying 4, you believe this game will be close. Therefore, this “revenge tour” Harbaugh is on (waxing Penn State and Michigan State and Wisconsin) SHOULD include OSU right?
That’s a good theory. The problem is if you just want the ML, and won’t lay 4, this should be a 3 to 6 point game in the final minutes either way. And Michigan’s offense with Speight has not proven to me it can manufacture a game winning or clock killing drive at that point. Or at a minimum, I don’t trust Speight or Harbaugh in such a spot after putting the ball in OSU’s hands when failing to get a late first down.
Now would Michigan be able to stop them in that spot? It won’t matter because if the game has Michigan leading by 1 to 3 points, OSU backers win with the 4. If they lead by 6, who’s to say OSU can’t break one in front of 100k+ at home? They are walking into a viper’s pit here.
OSU amazingly also STILL has national title hopes on the line so there is so much more to play for on the other side of the ball, a rarity.
Cappers here always want to talk spread value.
Well here’s some value:
The preseason line on this game was OSU -9. It went to -11 after Michigan lost to Norte Dame. You are telling me Michigan is now 15 points better than OSU in the biggest rivalrly game in all of CFB (next to Texas OU and Bama LSU)? Both one loss teams? Both playing for a national title spot (OSU a long shot but still)? I’ll take OSU with every bit of the 4 points there. I have other games this weekend that I have too much money on but I’d love to see OSU cover to back our psychology angle that rivalry matters. Brady Hoke had some truly awful Michigan teams and still covered against ELITE OSU teams (didn’t win, but covered). This rivalry matters. Metrics say Michigan will cover. Rivalry and psychology and spread value say OSU will. And I’d love to see the latter happen because it fortifies my and your “bread and butter capping”.
Oh yeah, OSU has won 13 of 14 SU. A Michigan SU win has been largely extinct since the mid-90’s. Now they’ll just waltz into OSU’s viper pit and lay 4 and saunter on to the national championship game.
Not for my money...
Well said and true. More people recognize this than you may realize though because those other handicappers still do get their props. I appreciate League as well of course.
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