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I NEED HELP WITH THIS ONE.

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Posted: #1
A GUY IN HERE PLAYED A 2 TEAM PARLAY i BELIEVE IT WAS TAMPA BAY AND THE OVER ON THE OKC GAME...620 MADE 1381.. SO HE ASKED IF HE SHOULD HEDGE AND TAKE THE UNDER STRAIGHT.MY ADVICE WAS TO TAKE THE UNDER FOR 100O IF THE OVER HIT HE WOULD MAKE 381 IF THE UNDER HIT HE WOULD MAKE 380..THEN I'M TOLD BY SOMEONE ELSE THAT MY ADVICE IS WRONG....IS MY ADVICE WRONG AND IF SO WHY?
 
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Posted: #2
It depends on how possible he think the over will hit. If he think over has a chance more than 27.5%, then EV(expected value of not taking under)>1380*27.5%+0*72.5%=381, so he shouldn't bet the under. Otherwise he should.
 
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Posted: #3
In this case I think the bettor thinks he has a chance more than 27.5% to hit the over, so he should not bet the under.
 
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Posted: #4

Listen my thinking has alway's been if you can make money get it.with gambling as unpredictable as it is i think getting out with a profit is alway's positive. By not hedging the wager and actually it's more like insuring the wager he can end up with nothing. So the logical move is to INSURE it's the one time you cant lose!!!!

 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Daywalker331:

Listen my thinking has alway's been if you can make money get it.with gambling as unpredictable as it is i think getting out with a profit is alway's positive. By not hedging the wager and actually it's more like insuring the wager he can end up with nothing. So the logical move is to INSURE it's the one time you cant lose!!!!



You didn't get my point... It's all about expected value...The  outcome itself doesn't matter... If you bet the under in the same circumstances for 1000 times, you'll end up losing huge compared to not betting the it. You would've known what I mean if you've taken 2-level math class in college, or you are into poker... If you still think taking under is the better move, then you'd better take a math class or we can't discuss anymore...
 
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Posted: #6
NO I GOT YOU POINT I UNDERSTAND AND IT'S SOUND BUT IT'S STILL GAMBLING ..KNOW WHAT I MEAN?
 
MVP
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Posted: #7
Listen, you are going to hedge ... why parlay??????


The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
 
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Posted: #8
I RESPECT YOUR OPINION...BUT I'M A GARANTEE TYPE OF GUY..WHICH IS WHY I ML THE MAJORITY OF MY PLAY'S...EVERBODY HAS TO DO WHAT THEY'VE FOUND TO BE SUCCESSFUL FOR THEM. I HAVE DONE THAT PARTICULAR STRATEGY A FEW TIMES NEVER WITH A TWO TEAM PARLAY BUT I HAVE DONE IT.I DON'T MIND TAKING LESS MONEY GARANTEED THEN TAKING A SHOT A BIG MONEY NOT GARANTEED. AND THAT'S REALLY WHAT IT BOILS DOWN TO . 
 
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Posted: #9
Hedging is only smart if you hedge on losses the same way you hedge on winners.

Otherwise you always win small and lose big....
 
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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

Listen, you are going to hedge ... why parlay??????


LOL ...SORRY I'M GOING TO BED... I'M EXHUSTED OVER THIS TOPIC !!! READ THIS POST AND THE OTHER ONE IF YOUR INTERESTED... THERES A MATHMATIC MAJOR IN  THE OTHER POST WHO IS BOTHERED BY CAPITOL LETTER'S ..BUT CAN GIVE YOU THE FORMULA FOR LAUNCHING THE SPACE SHUTTLE!!!

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Daywalker331:

LOL ...SORRY I'M GOING TO BED... I'M EXHUSTED OVER THIS TOPIC !!! READ THIS POST AND THE OTHER ONE IF YOUR INTERESTED... THERES A MATHMATIC MAJOR IN  THE OTHER POST WHO IS BOTHERED BY CAPITOL LETTER'S ..BUT CAN GIVE YOU THE FORMULA FOR LAUNCHING THE SPACE SHUTTLE!!!



Good night :)
And good luck tomorrow.

The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
 
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Posted: #12


There are not enough of these to justify this thread.
 
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Posted: #13
lol you started a thread

got more people telling you its wrong to hedge a 2 teamer

yet your still not agreeing or listening

like you said... go to bed LOL
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by yysmer:



You didn't get my point... It's all about expected value...The  outcome itself doesn't matter... If you bet the under in the same circumstances for 1000 times, you'll end up losing huge compared to not betting the it. You would've known what I mean if you've taken 2-level math class in college, or you are into poker... If you still think taking under is the better move, then you'd better take a math class or we can't discuss anymore...


https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101354348

Enjoy.
 
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Posted: #15

Quote Originally Posted by SJSharks99:

lol you started a thread

got more people telling you its wrong to hedge a 2 teamer

yet your still not agreeing or listening

like you said... go to bed LOL

I WILL NEVER AGREE WITH PASSING ON MAKING GARANTEED MONEY. NEVER ..THERES NOONE WHO WILL EVER CONVINCE ME THAT PASSING UP ON GARANTEED MONEY IN A ATTEMPT TO MAKE MORE PROFIT IS SOUND ADVICE. I KEEP HAVING THIS SAME ARGUMENT WITH MY STOCK BROKER!!!    

 
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Posted: #16
then why did you bother starting a thread wanting other peoples advice? simply to ignore it and get bent out of shape?
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by SJSharks99:

then why did you bother starting a thread wanting other peoples advice? simply to ignore it and get bent out of shape?


Dude it's pointless. It's like providing proof that 2+2 =4.

People are still going to believe the answer is 5 if they really want to.
 
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Posted: #18
Mods, can we change the topic of this thread to: I NEED HELP WITH THIS ONE.

LOL
The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
 
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Posted: #19
I'M NOT BENT OUTTA SHAPE...LOL AND I'M NOT IGNORING IT.. IT'S JUS,  AS STUBBORN AS MOST OF YOU ARE THAT YOUR RIGHT....I'M JUS THAT STUBBORN....YOU ALL THINK YOUR THE GAMBLING KING'S OF THE UNIVERSE THROUGH YOUR PERSONAL EXPERIENCE AND SO DO I. YOU'VE WON THOUSANDS DOING THIS THAT AND THE THIRD AND SO HAVE I . I MADE OVER 30 K GAMBLING THIS NBA SEASON AND PLAYOFF'S SO AS FAR AS I'M CONCERNED I KNOW WHAT I'M DOING.....AND YOUR RIGHT I SHOULDN'T HAVE POSTED ASKING FOR ADVICE. I'M NOT IGNORING THE ADVICE I JUS STILL DON'T AGREE WITH IT WHICH I THINK IM ENTITLED TO..... NO?????    BUT THANKS FOR YOUR REPLY'S!!!
 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by yysmer:



You didn't get my point... It's all about expected value...The  outcome itself doesn't matter... If you bet the under in the same circumstances for 1000 times, you'll end up losing huge compared to not betting the it. You would've known what I mean if you've taken 2-level math class in college, or you are into poker... If you still think taking under is the better move, then you'd better take a math class or we can't discuss anymore...

 

Exactly, by hedging you pay the vig twice.

If he plan to hedge why play the last game of the parlay . Just leave it off then your not  betting against yourself paying the vig twice.

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by SJSharks99:

then why did you bother starting a thread wanting other peoples advice? simply to ignore it and get bent out of shape?
totally agreed !!!!
 
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by diabloman:

totally agreed !!!!

3 POST'S JUST JOINED AND YOUR ON THE BANDWAGON!!!! I LOVE IT!!!

 
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Posted: #23
OK HOW BOUT THIS.... I UNDERSTAND GUY'S I'M WRONG AND YOUR ALL RIGHT...THANK YOU FOR YOUR IMPUT.I WAS REALLY LOST ON THAT TOPIC,I'M ALL STRAIGHTENED OUT NOW...THANKS A BUNCH ..GOODLUCK TO YOU !!!! .   
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Daywalker331:

OK HOW BOUT THIS.... I UNDERSTAND GUY'S I'M WRONG AND YOUR ALL RIGHT...THANK YOU FOR YOUR IMPUT.I WAS REALLY LOST ON THAT TOPIC,I'M ALL STRAIGHTENED OUT NOW...THANKS A BUNCH ..GOODLUCK TO YOU !!!! .   


This is like Michael Scott breaking down sarcasm.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Daywalker, if you were inclined to hedge after the 1st result came in, why incl. that 2nd bet in a parlay in the first place? Making a 2 team parlay, only to buy out of it after the first game is in, is handing your money away free to the man. It's insane.
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