If I was a Betting Man

• The bookmakers want a LINE that has about the same money on both sides. This guarantees that they will make money on commissions, regardless of the outcome. Thus, the resulting LINE may or may not be statistically indifferent. What I mean by that is simple: the line doesn't necessarily give you a 50/50 chance of winning. The biases of all the individuals of the betting pool factor into where the LINE moves.
• This model attempts to find the true LINE, the one free of biases. After which if it is found to be statistically significantly different from the biased line, then the appropriate betting recommendation is given.
• The model will only make a bet if it is favored to do so; therefore, it will not make a bet just for the sake of betting.
• The OVER/UNDER LINE represents the predicted sum of two teams. Therefore, points and points allowed should be analyzed.
• Teams generally play better at home than on the road. Thus, home scoring for the home team and road scoring for the away team should also be analyzed.
• The only data that are processed are the end scores. This is done so to maintain simplicity as there are infinite potential conditions that could be considered.
• Assuming a juice rate of 10%, the model has to be right at least 52.38% of the time. This also assumes that the same sized wager is made for the long run.
• This model will most likely have "bad streaks," just like how Shaq might have missed five free throws in a row. But even his career FT% of 52.7 would make money in the long run.

1. Input the AWAY and HOME teams
2. Model gathers the scoring average [SA], opponent scoring average [OSA], and road scoring average [RSA] for the AWAY team
3. Model also gathers the SA, OSA, and home scoring average [HSA] for the HOME team
4. Input the betting LINE
5. Model factors in skew characteristics for all relevant variables (an explanation for this step would require its own thread). Adjust variables from step 3 if needed.
6. Model compares AWAY SA + HOME SA, AWAY OSA + HOME OSA, RSA + HSA to LINE
7. Model provides three recommendations based on the three comparisons in step 6
8. If the three recommendations from step 7 are the same, then the appropriate OVER/UNDER bet will be recommended. If they aren't the same, then NO BET is recommended.

1. We'll set the risk tolerance (actually risk aversion rate) to 53%. Each recommendation has to be at least 53% statistically sure for OVER/UNDER, otherwise, NO BET
2. For the teams, we'll use LAL/DEN on FEB 25, 2013
3. AWAY SA + HOME SA = 207.7; 210.7(skew adjusted)
4. AWAY OSA + HOME OSA = 203; 203
5. RSA + HSA = 211.1; 211.6
6. LINE of 217.5
7. First recommendations: UNDER 68.3%/UNDER 80.6%/UNDER 67.5%
8. Last recommendations: UNDER because previous recommendations matched with reasonable certainty
9. Watch the game
10. Curse obscenities as LAL/DEN goes OVER

• LAL/DAL   UNDER   WIN
• GS/MIN   UNDER   WIN
• CLE/MIA   NO BET
• SAC/NO   UNDER   LOSS
• MEM/BKN   OVER   LOSS
• PHI/NY   OVER   WIN
• SAN/PHX   UNDER   WIN
• BOS/POR   NO BET
• CHI/OKC   NO BET

• WAS/TOR   NO BET
• ATL/DET   NO BET
• LAL/DEN   UNDER   LOSS
• BOS/UTA   OVER   WIN

did you bet under or over for the lal/den game. coz here's how i see it.

both teams had a road and home scoring average of 211. line was set at 217. to the average bettor, it would seem that he got value to his under bet because of the 6 point margin from the actual line. however it must have been set by vegas that high for a reason. it is bound to go over.