Posted:
#26
No, either u know ur shit or u don't. Line movement lol
is it possible just to cap games by line movement?
Posted:
#28
Dont get too heavily involved in line movement and picking sides where the public is on this side or against that total etc. You'll get burned.
once in a while in a high profile heavily bet game AKA something like Seahawks vs. Broncos superbowl you can look at line movement and juice. If you think they (Vegas casinos) are happy with 50% split and collect the juice on a solid game you have to be naive. That movement is them moving it cuz they have a stake in the game and are gambling with you. Corporations like Lehman brothers did it in their field.... they (vegas) do it too except Lehman gambled a shiit ton more than Vegas does, they play safe Lehman bit of more than they could chew and folded.....
best advice on a night/weekly/monthly basis I wouldn't put too much into RLM. Do your best to cap games and play it out in your head. don't get stuck getting into too much action, hit a bet or two and thats it..... you'll get burned instantly betting more than 1 or two games a night..... and even then that's a lot sometimes too.
Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:
Dont get too heavily involved in line movement and picking sides where the public is on this side or against that total etc. You'll get burned.
Dont get too heavily involved in line movement and picking sides where the public is on this side or against that total etc. You'll get burned.
once in a while in a high profile heavily bet game AKA something like Seahawks vs. Broncos superbowl you can look at line movement and juice. If you think they (Vegas casinos) are happy with 50% split and collect the juice on a solid game you have to be naive. That movement is them moving it cuz they have a stake in the game and are gambling with you. Corporations like Lehman brothers did it in their field.... they (vegas) do it too except Lehman gambled a shiit ton more than Vegas does, they play safe Lehman bit of more than they could chew and folded.....
best advice on a night/weekly/monthly basis I wouldn't put too much into RLM. Do your best to cap games and play it out in your head. don't get stuck getting into too much action, hit a bet or two and thats it..... you'll get burned instantly betting more than 1 or two games a night..... and even then that's a lot sometimes too.
ncaa on fri or sat not sure but there were 9 games where the fav had 80% of bets on them and the opening line went down against them 9 dogs covered i was only on a few due to bankroll being low , ill def put that to use for march madness fon the first round ,
everyone is crying about the lakerrs game when the mavs had 80% of bets -7.5 , if i wouldnt have been asleep i would have taken lakers lol...but it opened at 6.5 which some took and won
yes i know not all games will turn out like that but i feel like dogs and fading that 80% is better then alway sbeing on the fav which vegas wants
Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by itsonnow1:
Line movement methods work just like any new method....they are very profitable short term.
Line movement methods work just like any new method....they are very profitable short term.
And then get evened out in the long run.
If you're method does not beat every sport, every season? Then you are only, slowly, avoiding the inevitable.
been hot in college but like you say eventually it will get evened out
Posted:
#34
One thing about college is that at IMO its tougher for vegas to make a sharper line. College only 4 years. in case of NCAA baskets its 1 year for most NBA talent to even stick around os they have a smaller sample size. Even if they profile a guy from earlier years its irrelevant as hes growing, maturing, and his competition is changing. Guys are moving and changing all the time in college. Vegas does get sharper lines on top 25 teams though.... so tread carefully. notice how that makes sense in terms of them having an interest in it. Top 25 teams are heavily televised with public interest. 
FSU noles, Kentucky, Duke, Notre dame, etc.....
FSU noles, Kentucky, Duke, Notre dame, etc..... Same for College Football. Football in general is a whole other animal for the simple aspect of non linear scoring and the fact that defense can put up points when the offense is stagnant and still win games/or cover spreads.
IMO, need to really break down everything and get a full grasp on how all games play out.
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:
One thing about college is that at IMO its tougher for vegas to make a sharper line. College only 4 years. in case of NCAA baskets its 1 year for most NBA talent to even stick around os they have a smaller sample size. Even if they profile a guy from earlier years its irrelevant as hes growing, maturing, and his competition is changing. Guys are moving and changing all the time in college. Vegas does get sharper lines on top 25 teams though.... so tread carefully. notice how that makes sense in terms of them having an interest in it. Top 25 teams are heavily televised with public interest. FSU noles, Kentucky, Duke, Notre dame, etc.....
One thing about college is that at IMO its tougher for vegas to make a sharper line. College only 4 years. in case of NCAA baskets its 1 year for most NBA talent to even stick around os they have a smaller sample size. Even if they profile a guy from earlier years its irrelevant as hes growing, maturing, and his competition is changing. Guys are moving and changing all the time in college. Vegas does get sharper lines on top 25 teams though.... so tread carefully. notice how that makes sense in terms of them having an interest in it. Top 25 teams are heavily televised with public interest.
FSU noles, Kentucky, Duke, Notre dame, etc..... Same for College Football. Football in general is a whole other animal for the simple aspect of non linear scoring and the fact that defense can put up points when the offense is stagnant and still win games/or cover spreads.
IMO, need to really break down everything and get a full grasp on how all games play out.
thanks for sahring information man.
i dont know much this is my first year.
Posted:
#38
I use an RLM system and agree you will have hot streaks followed by cold streaks. With about 2-3 yrs experience following RLM in MLB, NBA, CBB, and CFB, I am confident one can make money using it with solid money management and discipline. I think you must also research the games and even read comments on ESPN conversation boards to see if all the fools are saying things like "EZ $" for the public team.
RLM has been on fire the last four days. Hitting at 67% out of 63 plays. I hit two 4team parlays
Posted:
#40
But using line movement just like everyone said isn't foolproof, but can be effective if you know what you're doing. I use line movement alot and do very well. But you really have to understand things like what lines are supposed to be given the two teams and any other circumstances that could affect the game as well as why lines move(knowing which line move actually means something, knowing which is just to throw you off, and knowing when the books are exaggerating the line move, etc). It comes with experience but you really have to study it. Like I hate when a line moves and people are automatically like oh its sharp money. Lol its alot more to it that simple garbage like that
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:
The sharps had -6.5 on dallas early on...
i had LAL +7.5, does that make me sharp? Lol
The sharps had -6.5 on dallas early on...
Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by JNaylor07:
I use an RLM system and agree you will have hot streaks followed by cold streaks. With about 2-3 yrs experience following RLM in MLB, NBA, CBB, and CFB, I am confident one can make money using it with solid money management and discipline. I think you must also research the games and even read comments on ESPN conversation boards to see if all the fools are saying things like "EZ $" for the public team.
I use an RLM system and agree you will have hot streaks followed by cold streaks. With about 2-3 yrs experience following RLM in MLB, NBA, CBB, and CFB, I am confident one can make money using it with solid money management and discipline. I think you must also research the games and even read comments on ESPN conversation boards to see if all the fools are saying things like "EZ $" for the public team.
RLM has been on fire the last four days. Hitting at 67% out of 63 plays. I hit two 4team parlays
damn nice two 4teamers !!
yea it has been hitting im just limited to what i can play my bankroll is small
Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by GTD:
No, either u know ur garbage or u don't. Line movement lol
No, either u know ur garbage or u don't. Line movement lol
You obviously don't know your garbage, line movement reveals information and if you haven't realised information is valuable then you should go back to school.
It's not as simple as capping the games based on superior team wins etc or everyone would be winning. We aren't talking about EXCLUSIVELY line movement, we compare what's happening irl with how the lines are reacting. Ya dig?
Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by itsonnow1:
Line movement methods work just like any new method....they are very profitable short term.
Line movement methods work just like any new method....they are very profitable short term.
And then get evened out in the long run.
If you're method does not beat every sport, every season? Then you are only, slowly, avoiding the inevitable.
New?
Once again you are incorrect. Systems that incorporate line movement have been profitable since 1999 over multiple leagues and sports.
Posted:
#45
On second thought, I'm staying away from Wizards +1.5 tonight. Instead considering Minnesota +7.5. Here is my thought process:
We see RLM in both at this time, although that could change before gametime. I am using betting percentages from thespread.com which use data from Sports Insights.com. Currently 60% of wagers are on Charlotte vs. Wizards, yet line has moved from Charlotte -2 to -1.5 and similarly 57% of wagers are on Clippers vs. Minnesota, yet line has moved from LAC -8 to -7.5.
I believe the line movement in the Washington/Charlotte game can be attributed to the report that Bradley Beal will play tonight. As you can see in the following chart, the line changes right after this was reported at 8:53AM by J. Michael on Twitter.
https://account.sportsinsights.com/spreadbasic.aspx?sport_id=2&v_nss=701&v_date=3/9/2015>ype=4
Yet the line movement in the Minnesota/LAC game is less clear. It seems money was going Minnesota's way early on before the line moved....it appears to be a move by bookies to induce more betting on LAC. Here is the chart for that one:
https://account.sportsinsights.com/spreadbasic.aspx?sport_id=2&v_nss=715&v_date=3/9/2015>ype=4
Therefore, I'd be more inclined to bet Minnesota +7.5 tonight. With that said, any bet can lose.
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