I know, but the hardcore squares who thought the Lakers wouldn't lose two in a row are likely chasing tonight. The enlightened bettors who read this thread closely will not be so eager to lay it with the Lakers.
except usually covers is littered with Lakers backers especially with a line as low as -5 at home, but not this time. A public dog usually never ends up being a good bet...We both know that.
Cant get my head around this game...I think there are better games on the board.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
I know, but the hardcore squares who thought the Lakers wouldn't lose two in a row are likely chasing tonight. The enlightened bettors who read this thread closely will not be so eager to lay it with the Lakers.
except usually covers is littered with Lakers backers especially with a line as low as -5 at home, but not this time. A public dog usually never ends up being a good bet...We both know that.
Cant get my head around this game...I think there are better games on the board.
No, I don't lean to the over. I believe some NBA games are fixed for the over, but very few of them. I still remember seeing the line move dramatically upward last January 2nd (of '09) at Pinnacle just a few minutes before tip-off. I remember feeling helpless that my under 196.5 was going to get fucked somehow. Then the game began. And so did the whistles. BAM!
Kinda like that line tonite with Golden State and the Knicks. Up to 236.5 and will probably still go over!
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
No, I don't lean to the over. I believe some NBA games are fixed for the over, but very few of them. I still remember seeing the line move dramatically upward last January 2nd (of '09) at Pinnacle just a few minutes before tip-off. I remember feeling helpless that my under 196.5 was going to get fucked somehow. Then the game began. And so did the whistles. BAM!
Kinda like that line tonite with Golden State and the Knicks. Up to 236.5 and will probably still go over!
Not sure if this was discussed in this thread but I was going to take the Jazz for this reason. Line opens at -5, the lowest line all year for a LAL home game the only other was against Boston but no Kobe so that doesn't count. Against all the elite teams it was -6 or higher. It opens at -5 and drops half a point. My gut was telling me as soon as I researched it that the Jazz was the play. Are they a full 1.5 points better than everyone else in the league? NO, oddsmakers feel the Jazz walk out with a WIN tonight. Since everyone on this forum is now on the Jazz because of this thread I am not sure what I am going to do now. I will probably take it but for what the line is telling me and nothing else. Too safe taking the LAL tonight.
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Not sure if this was discussed in this thread but I was going to take the Jazz for this reason. Line opens at -5, the lowest line all year for a LAL home game the only other was against Boston but no Kobe so that doesn't count. Against all the elite teams it was -6 or higher. It opens at -5 and drops half a point. My gut was telling me as soon as I researched it that the Jazz was the play. Are they a full 1.5 points better than everyone else in the league? NO, oddsmakers feel the Jazz walk out with a WIN tonight. Since everyone on this forum is now on the Jazz because of this thread I am not sure what I am going to do now. I will probably take it but for what the line is telling me and nothing else. Too safe taking the LAL tonight.
National TV audience in Los Angeles, a day after LA Kings (NHL hockey) blow out and put on a show for los angeles I would expect the Lakers to put on a good show for the fans. I think the Lakers will win moneyline.
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National TV audience in Los Angeles, a day after LA Kings (NHL hockey) blow out and put on a show for los angeles I would expect the Lakers to put on a good show for the fans. I think the Lakers will win moneyline.
tuck321, did you just tell WizrduvOdz that the Lakers are not coming off a loss?
No I said there were not coming off A LOSS. I believe the fact that this will be a chance to for the second time this year lose 3 in a row but this time at home is fairly key. If this were just a 1 loss situation no interest and I still have made no bet.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
tuck321, did you just tell WizrduvOdz that the Lakers are not coming off a loss?
No I said there were not coming off A LOSS. I believe the fact that this will be a chance to for the second time this year lose 3 in a row but this time at home is fairly key. If this were just a 1 loss situation no interest and I still have made no bet.
Excellent analysis, per usual, MrBator. I myself had this game circled after I read this ESPN Insider article regarding the Lakers' shitiness:
worst margin of the West's top eight. Ready for the really depressing news? Seven teams in the East are ahead of the Lakers, too.
Playoff Odds give them only a 1-in-6 chance of coming out of the West. While one can argue the Playoff Odds might be a bit too democratic in spreading the probabilities around, it's notable that Utah grades out as much more likely to advance and that Phoenix and San Antonio are projected to have chances roughly equal to the Lakers'.
Derek Fisher is a great guy and has earned all the rope he's been given, but we're 70 games into the season and he's shooting 37.9 percent with a 9.27 player efficiency rating, output that screams, "Replace me," from the hilltops. Unfortunately, backup Jordan Farmar hasn't been any better. The Lakers had a golden opportunity to trade Adam Morrison's expiring contract for backcourt help at the trade deadline and failed to pull the trigger. They might regret that move deeply come May.
Kobe Bryant isn't producing at the level of the previous two seasons. This has been partly masked by his increased minutes -- he's playing 38.8 minutes per game compared to last season's 36.1 -- and his penchant for spectacular last-second shots. So his per-game numbers look fine, and he's making memorable plays. But on a per-minute basis, he hasn't been the same player. He's headed for his worst PER in a decade, with his turnover ratio in particular spiking noticeably from last season.
Jazz +5 no questions asked.
I love this post..... It's expresses my thoughts exactly, Only thing I would change is that you didn't advise hammering the Jazz ML also.
THE WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED HERE. I repeat the wrong team is favored. If you're not going to wager on the value out there on this game, I shudder to think on what you could be waiting for.
Honestly, the only tricky part about this to me is getting the best possible line, (when to pull the trigger), As of right now the ML is +180, I think it may go higher, but I'm still fairly satisfied with where it's at now.
Additionaly, I would much rather have a futures ticket for the Jazz to come out of the West than the Lakers. This is not just a recent opinion I've developed, I've had this feeling ever since they had to acutally go on the road after that crazy home court sced. they opened the year with. I think that inflated their percieved greatness way to much and it still hasn't came back to reality yet. Hence, the reason why I believe there is monster value with the Jazz tonight. I'm going to be on this for at least two units both ML and pts. GL to all on the same side, Nice post MB
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Quote Originally Posted by PistolPete21:
Excellent analysis, per usual, MrBator. I myself had this game circled after I read this ESPN Insider article regarding the Lakers' shitiness:
worst margin of the West's top eight. Ready for the really depressing news? Seven teams in the East are ahead of the Lakers, too.
Playoff Odds give them only a 1-in-6 chance of coming out of the West. While one can argue the Playoff Odds might be a bit too democratic in spreading the probabilities around, it's notable that Utah grades out as much more likely to advance and that Phoenix and San Antonio are projected to have chances roughly equal to the Lakers'.
Derek Fisher is a great guy and has earned all the rope he's been given, but we're 70 games into the season and he's shooting 37.9 percent with a 9.27 player efficiency rating, output that screams, "Replace me," from the hilltops. Unfortunately, backup Jordan Farmar hasn't been any better. The Lakers had a golden opportunity to trade Adam Morrison's expiring contract for backcourt help at the trade deadline and failed to pull the trigger. They might regret that move deeply come May.
Kobe Bryant isn't producing at the level of the previous two seasons. This has been partly masked by his increased minutes -- he's playing 38.8 minutes per game compared to last season's 36.1 -- and his penchant for spectacular last-second shots. So his per-game numbers look fine, and he's making memorable plays. But on a per-minute basis, he hasn't been the same player. He's headed for his worst PER in a decade, with his turnover ratio in particular spiking noticeably from last season.
Jazz +5 no questions asked.
I love this post..... It's expresses my thoughts exactly, Only thing I would change is that you didn't advise hammering the Jazz ML also.
THE WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED HERE. I repeat the wrong team is favored. If you're not going to wager on the value out there on this game, I shudder to think on what you could be waiting for.
Honestly, the only tricky part about this to me is getting the best possible line, (when to pull the trigger), As of right now the ML is +180, I think it may go higher, but I'm still fairly satisfied with where it's at now.
Additionaly, I would much rather have a futures ticket for the Jazz to come out of the West than the Lakers. This is not just a recent opinion I've developed, I've had this feeling ever since they had to acutally go on the road after that crazy home court sced. they opened the year with. I think that inflated their percieved greatness way to much and it still hasn't came back to reality yet. Hence, the reason why I believe there is monster value with the Jazz tonight. I'm going to be on this for at least two units both ML and pts. GL to all on the same side, Nice post MB
National TV audience in Los Angeles, a day after LA Kings (NHL hockey) blow out and put on a show for los angeles I would expect the Lakers to put on a good show for the fans. I think the Lakers will win moneyline.
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Quote Originally Posted by Damix:
National TV audience in Los Angeles, a day after LA Kings (NHL hockey) blow out and put on a show for los angeles I would expect the Lakers to put on a good show for the fans. I think the Lakers will win moneyline.
The Lakers just seem to be cruising going into the playoffs. The one seed is locked up and they are the defending champs. This team does not need to rack up wins to impress, they have seen it all and done it all. I see no reason for Jackson to be stomping on the gas too hard.
The Jazz are in that Western conference mess that has little room beteen 2 and 8. They seem to be the best fit for the 2 seeds as many of these other teams are sinking at a crucial time. Deron has blossomed into one of the true great 1's in the game and off the top of my head, may be the best going right now.
My Take- the Lakers have little to play for. They will not play a great first half. The Jazz have plenty of motivation (playing the champs is ALWAYS MOTIVATON FOR ANY TEAM IN ANY SPORT!).
The Jazz race off to a lead. The Lakers don't panic. They have proven they can go on big runs against this squad. I think they perk up in the fourth and try to run down the Jazz. The question to me, how big is the hill and can they climb it in time.
Taking the Jazz first half. Thanks for the write up Bator. Uh Oh- a Bator write-up.....
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My take-
The Lakers just seem to be cruising going into the playoffs. The one seed is locked up and they are the defending champs. This team does not need to rack up wins to impress, they have seen it all and done it all. I see no reason for Jackson to be stomping on the gas too hard.
The Jazz are in that Western conference mess that has little room beteen 2 and 8. They seem to be the best fit for the 2 seeds as many of these other teams are sinking at a crucial time. Deron has blossomed into one of the true great 1's in the game and off the top of my head, may be the best going right now.
My Take- the Lakers have little to play for. They will not play a great first half. The Jazz have plenty of motivation (playing the champs is ALWAYS MOTIVATON FOR ANY TEAM IN ANY SPORT!).
The Jazz race off to a lead. The Lakers don't panic. They have proven they can go on big runs against this squad. I think they perk up in the fourth and try to run down the Jazz. The question to me, how big is the hill and can they climb it in time.
Taking the Jazz first half. Thanks for the write up Bator. Uh Oh- a Bator write-up.....
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