Johnson's NBA Tuesday 11/25

OVERALL RECORD:  42-45  (-$600)

ATS:  16-18
O/U:  11-18
1ST Q: 9-6
1ST H:  1-1
3RD Q:  1-1
2ND H:  2-0
TEAM TOTALS:  2-1

2 UNIT PLAYS:  7-5
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Welp...another losing night.  Clippers went crazy offensively and the Mavericks were on pace to hit...but couldn't do anything late in the game to help me out.  Just in a bad stretch right now and gotta keep trusting the stats and trends to get it going back in the right direction

I'm going to go back to my old method that worked very well and I just lost time to do it...

I'm going to try and start the thread for the next day the night before with write-ups and some basic analysis and see where the line goes throughout the day.

Just keep picking man. You'll be alright. Your one of my favs for NBA to follow. Everyone has rough stretches. BOL man 

Atlanta vs Washington -

Game will end up between Wizards -5 and -7.  Atlanta is very well rested but schedule wise this is an interesting game...1 game road trip before returning home tomorrow night to face the Raptors.  Huge look ahead scenario for the Wizards as they have won 8 out of their last 10 games and have a big game in Cleveland tomorrow night.  Initial lean would be towards the OVER if it stays under 200 points as the Hawks have been on the road against the East 4 times this year and 3 of them have gone WAY over the total.  4 of the 6 home games for the Wizards have gone over the total this year...and although they are 5-1 SU they are only 2-4 ATS...so I would tend to stay away from that.

Golden State vs Miami -

I would set this line at about Golden State -4 and O/U of 205.  Lean towards the UNDER if it's anything much higher than that.  Golden State defense has done a really good job this year on the road only allowing 93.6 points per game while the Heat offense is only putting up 94 points per game at home.  The injuries to Bogut and Barbosa will be huge...and if one or both of them is OUT you have to take another serious look at the UNDER

Detroit vs Milwaukee -

Lean towards the Bucks at the short spread to start off this one because of how terrible the Pistons have been as underdogs this year.  Would be very surprised if this line stays put if Jennings is actually ruled out of this game.  If anything seems fishy in this one, the Bucks in the 1st quarter could be a very tasty bet...heading out on the road after this game so there is a possibility of losing interest in the 2nd half while focusing on building a big lead early on.

Sacramento vs New Orleans -

Strong lean towards the Kings in this one as the Pelicans should take a little bit of time to figure out the new rotation without Eric Gordon.  He hasn't been putting up electric offensive numbers...but he's a 30 minute a game player...and that's tough to replace.  Kings are very good ATS on the road this year, and might take the place of last year's Suns as being the surprise team that nobody expected.  Another big factor is the scheduling for New Orleans...been on the road for over a week now, and have to head right back out on the road after this game.  Kings heading to Texas for a tough stretch so they might REALLY want to win this one.

Chicago vs Denver -

Big lean towards the UNDER in this one if it's anywhere near 200 points.  Bulls have been on the road for over a week now, and don't have a break in sight as they have to fly out to Boston after this game.  Bulls offense has been sputtering a little bit this week without Hinrich and Gibson in the rotation...and if they are ruled out tomorrow...an under play might have to be in order.

I completely agree with u on sC all the more reason for me to double up on my bets lets freakkkkiinn do this mr johnson 

Atlanta vs Washington OVER 200.5  ($110 to win $100)

No Nene worries me a little bit...but I settled on believing that it should open up Horford and Millsap to do a lot better down low.  Horford hasn't had a break out type game yet this year and has been fading away slowly over the past two years...so that might be a bit much to ask...but with an important early season road game I expect all hands on deck.

Prediction:  Wizards 107  Hawks 103

Chicago vs Denver UNDER 203  ($110 to win $100)

Bulls started off the road trip with a nice win against the Clips...but have faded off very quickly.  Got a win last night just barely despite wanting to give that game away.  Either way, without Gibson and Hinrich their offense doesn't have the balance it usually has.  I wouldn't expect many offensive rebounds and second chance points for the Bulls tonight with Noah going up against Faried.  If Rose can't go tonight due to his weekly injury...I just can't see points from the Bulls.  Would be a 200 play if Rose was definitely out.

Prediction:  Nuggets 99  Bulls 91

Agree with both picks.  Back to winning TONIGHT! 

Chi/Den opened at 201.5

BOL CMJ, try and read some of your insights when I can , although I don't comment much. Liking the Nuggets ATS tonight, def agree with your assessment. Just from Thibs comments, you can tell he is frustrated with Rose right now. Even if Rose plays tonight, I just wonder how many minutes he will play as he was fatigued last night but Thibs kept him on the court. I can see the Bulls wearing down a bit especially in the 2nd half in denver

Well were definitely on the same train of thought despite differencing opinions on the NO/SAC game. The two games that stuck out to me were ATL/WAS over 200 and the CHI/DEN game to be under 199. Atlanta has no injuries and are so versatile its insane. They are also hungry and determined; even if they're looking ahead they are going to try their best to win both games. And as you've said the Wizards are in a similar situation with CLE tmw. Chicago's leading scorer, Jimmy Butler, played 43 minutes last night and the other Bulls logging in serious minutes may find themselves very fatigued very quickly. Denver still won't be able to perform their usual high flying antics against this Bulls team, most likely shooting below 45% and under 35% from the 3.

CM.....Thoughts on Chicago Team Total UNDER 101 -120?

WWow CM, no idea how we pulled out that over in the Hawk game. 22 points in the final minute just sick. 

Never a doubt

Do you know how to delete a topic? please help.