Quote Originally Posted by NFLJOE:
Just out of curiosity I know you like to "split the difference" when it comes to totals and previous meetings.
But do you think Vegas sets the lines that way? It just seems a bit too convenient.
For example, if 2 teams meet twice and they hit 230 in a record setting game in one meeting but have an average shooting night the next and hit 190, do you automatically assume the total should be 210 for the third game? Even if its 2 good defensive teams?
I'm not hating, just asking. Because there are so many variables that come into play like injuries in the previous games, back to backs, look aheads and so on.
I personally never looked at totals that way. I've always looked at pace, shooting percentages, offensive and defensive and so on.
Great question...everything you mentioned there is pretty much what I look at.
A few minutes looking at the box score will immediately point out the important points of the game. Perfect example tonight would be the Kings/Grizzlies game. Before even looking at the box scores, just take into consideration the teams involved. Kings are young, inconsistent, more offensively geared, faster at home and slower on the road. Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league, and just recently lost their premier scorer and heart guy with Rudy Ghay.
I take a look at the first meeting...113-81 Grizzlies...OVER 188. Grizzlies played a phenomenal offensive game getting 29 assists on 39 made shots. Rudy Ghay struggled, but they also got 26 out of Wayne Ellington....so that evens out, it could have easily been 26 for Ghay and 8 for Ellington. A lot of free throws, great 3 point shooting...overall the Kings were about where they should be expected...not abnormally terrible shooting....good amount of rebounds.
Second meeting the Grizzlies didn't get the same number of free throws, or 3-pointers...despite having a similar assist ratio...21 assists on 34 made shots. More turnovers, and less offensive rebounds...figure they won't be at the 85 point mark...but certainly not the 113 mark either...they should be in the mid to low 90's more often than not. The Kings in this game were the story however. Shot even worse in the second matchup...made nothing from beyond the arc...couldn't get to the free throw line...a bunch of turnovers...and only 9 assists on 29 made shots.
Now I expect that the Kings won't be that bad, they should fall a lot closer to the first matchup where they were able to get 81 points against the tough Grizzlies defense. After looking at the basics of the box score, I check the injuries and situations (3rd in 4, 4th in 5, after long home stand or road trip, etc.). There are no injuries for these teams, and nothing really sticking out as far as the situations. Finally, I take a look at the referees and see if they could seriously impact what happens....what we see with tonight's game is that Brent Barnaky is on the crew...and he is notorious for hating the home team and loving the OVER. That definitely needs to be considered.
Final thing I do is analyze what it would take to get the OVER...it's predicted at 99-90 or so in favor of the Grizzlies. Despite the Kings defensive limitations, getting the Grizz to 100 points seems a bit too much to ask. What would be the maximum from the Grizzlies? I'd say 106.
So that's basically my methodology that I follow with just about every game that I look at. It takes time, but it gives me a good feel on the total...so to answer your question, does Vegas know this? Yes they do...of course they do. But if you pay attention to abnormalities, and do this for a while, you get a good feeling for predicting this game.
Hot Forum Topics
