Johnson's NBA Wednesday 2/20

Question

OVERALL RECORD:  160-153 (&#x2B;4.25u)Record vs. Spread/ML:  79-80  (-1.45u)Record vs. O/U:  80-71  (&#x2B;7.5u)Record vs. Parlay:  1-2  (-1.9u)========================================================================Lost out on the Wizards last night...and didn&#x27;t get a chance to get back from work in time to make my late plays, which of course looked pretty good. I&#x27;m going to experiment with a new system.  I&#x27;ve found that I spend so much time researching each game and giving my write-ups for each game...that it becomes difficult to trim it down to a normal number of plays.  I often find that I stray from my initial gut feelings and start to force plays.  On a side note, for a majority of the season I have picked every game and every total in the NBA Contest here on Covers....and have done very well.  I will try and convert that success into my every day plays.  Now obviously, going from betting 1-4 games a day to betting 10&#x2B; games per day I will have to seriously adjust my units being bet.  Doesn&#x27;t make any sense still betting the same amount of money on a game and multiplying the plays big time.  1 unit for me throughout the season has been $100.  I&#x27;m not a big money gambler as I&#x27;ve said on many occasions...I do this for entertainment and small investment return purposes.  I will now lower my "unit" of betting to $10 and will be making a play on just about every play for the evening.  I will also be keeping a separate record in addition to my full unit betting record.I will give this until the end of the month...and see how we do.

CMJohnson1 · Answer

OVERALL RECORD:  160-153 (&#x2B;4.25u)Record vs. Spread/ML:  79-80  (-1.45u)Record vs. O/U:  80-71  (&#x2B;7.5u)Record vs. Parlay:  1-2  (-1.9u)========================================================================Lost out on the Wizards last night...and didn&#x27;t get a chance to get back from work in time to make my late plays, which of course looked pretty good. I&#x27;m going to experiment with a new system.  I&#x27;ve found that I spend so much time researching each game and giving my write-ups for each game...that it becomes difficult to trim it down to a normal number of plays.  I often find that I stray from my initial gut feelings and start to force plays.  On a side note, for a majority of the season I have picked every game and every total in the NBA Contest here on Covers....and have done very well.  I will try and convert that success into my every day plays.  Now obviously, going from betting 1-4 games a day to betting 10&#x2B; games per day I will have to seriously adjust my units being bet.  Doesn&#x27;t make any sense still betting the same amount of money on a game and multiplying the plays big time.  1 unit for me throughout the season has been $100.  I&#x27;m not a big money gambler as I&#x27;ve said on many occasions...I do this for entertainment and small investment return purposes.  I will now lower my "unit" of betting to $10 and will be making a play on just about every play for the evening.  I will also be keeping a separate record in addition to my full unit betting record.I will give this until the end of the month...and see how we do.

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Toronto Raptors -Both teams coming into this game off a nice win last night.  Grizzlies have a shorter flight in however, as they are coming in from Detroit, while the Raptors are flying in from Washington DC.  The last six games for the Grizzlies have all gone OVER the total, and by an average of 9.16 points per game.  This is the first meeting against Rudy G., and he will no doubt be motivated to go big against his old team and old friends.  The Grizzlies in the past couple games have figured out a fantastic offense centered around Mike Conley handling the ball and getting it down low to Randolph, Gasol, and Ed Davis.  The spread in this one is a tough one to figure out because of the conflicting motivating factors.  Will Memphis want to come out and beat their former All-Star?  Will Rudy G. buckle down and find a way to will his team to a win at home?  Raptors are 10-2 ATS on B2B games.  Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS against the Atlantic Division.  What this game really comes down to in my opinion is rebounds.  The Grizzlies outrebounded the Raptors in the first matchup big time.  I also don&#x27;t think the total has adjusted to the newer style of the Grizzlies.Prediction:  Grizzlies 98  Raptors 96Grizzlies &#x2B;1  (1.1 to win 1)OVER 186.5  (1.1 to win 1)

TheForbes777 · Answer

Nice write up man, but the difference on the B2B for me is that MEM has been living in hotels on this b2b while TOR gets to go home for the most part. A roady on a B2B against the best team ATS on B2B. Looking tough man, I like that OVER though. Rudy G will explode on MEM, and IMO Tor got the better road win. DET is just awful while with Beal and Wall WAS has been a formidable opponent. Be wary of TOR. GL man!

CMJohnson1 · Answer

New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers -One of the best three point shooting teams against one of the best defensive 3pt percentage teams.  First matchup between these two only hit 164 points with the Knicks shooting 28% from 3 and 36% from the field, but won by 12 at home being able to force 19 turnovers.  Second matchup in Indiana featured no Carmelo Anthony, 20% 3 point shooting from the Knicks (including a 2-9 performance from Jason Kidd) and 34% from the field.  Amare Stoudamire had still just barely returned from his injury at that point as well.  The Pacers have improved very much in the past couple weeks as far as FG%...and have been able to get closer to the 100 point mark more regularly.  The biggest thing I&#x27;ve pointed to in the first couple matchups is that the Knicks have been able to out-rebound the Pacers in both games.  Pacers have led the league in rebounding pretty much from the start of the year.  I look for Carmelo to come out of the All-Star break...and I certainly look for them to get the 3-point shot going tonight.  The Knicks are 25-5 this season when they hit 11 or more 3pointers.  Prediction:  Knicks 99  Pacers 94Knicks &#x2B;3.5  (2.2 to win 2)OVER 185.5  (1.1 to win 1)

CMJohnson1 · Answer

I am always wary of Toronto!!  They are a sneaky team

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Detroit Pistons vs. Charlotte Bobcats -Pistons coming off a double digit loss against the Grizzlies, while the Bobcats got a rare road win against the Magic in Orlando.  Bobcats defense has been playing a little bit better in the past week or so once they got out of the road trip with teams such as the Rockets, Lakers, Spurs, and Cavaliers.  Now that they have been able to play slower paced teams, they have improved a little bit.  The Pistons would certainly qualify for a slower paced team, ranking 20th in PPG and 15th in FG% and 28th in FT%.  Only 3 of the 12 B2B games for the Pistons have gone OVER the total...only 1 game in the month of February for the Bobcats has gone OVER the total.  With person Bavetta on the court as well, I think there is only one logical play on this game.Prediction:  Pistons 96  Bobcats 91UNDER 195  (1.1 to win 1)

CMJohnson1 · Answer

New Orleans Hornets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers -Tough to see the Hornets being able to compete with the faster paced, guard orientated Cavaliers without Eric Gordon in their lineup.  Even last night he was able to put up 20 points with an injured knee.  Cavaliers have lost three straight home games against the Western Conference, and this is a rare opportunity for a nationally televised game where they can get a big win.  They also have to fly out for a three game road trip after this game...so I would tend to lean on the fact that Kyrie Irving and his boys will be ultra-focused for this game.  Spread seemed to be set right about where it should be, and I would expect it to continue to rise as the public will pound the Cavs.  As far as the total is concerned, it&#x27;s tough to tell with the key injury for the Hornets.  I like the Cavaliers to get over the 100 mark just barely, but it&#x27;s just way too difficult to tell what the Hornets will be able to put up.  Will they have the 111 or 105 on the road like against the Hawks and Pistons?  Or will it be the 86 or 89 point performance on the road that they gave against the Raptors and Wolves?  Prediction:  Cavaliers 102  Hornets 91Cavaliers -2.5  (1.1 to win 1)

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks -I am very interested to see how the Miami Heat and they&#x27;re 3 all-star&#x27;s come out after the break.  They entered the All-Star break as one of the hottest teams in the league, winning 4 straight games by double digits, all against playoff caliber teams.  They also have absolutely dominated the Hawks in Atlanta...winning and covering the last 6 meetings in ATL.  Hawks have struggled all season at home...and the spread is set low enough that a wide majority of the public bettors will pound the hell out of the Heat.  First matchup hit 184 and the second matchup hit 193...strong feeling towards that trend continuing.  Heat were able to shoot almost 60% in the second meeting in Atlanta despite Ray Allen only shooting 1-8 from the field.  Now usually I go with the third meeting middling the first two totals, but with the lack of Dwayne Wade in the first game between these two, you have to take that with a grain of salt.  So the second meeting is what we are looking at.  Do we see 193 points as high, low, or average for these two teams?  Clearly, Vegas looks at it as being low, as they have set the total in this one at the 197 mark.  Biggest question in this game is the motivation and energy from the Heat.  I&#x27;m sure that the Hawks will come out pumped up to shut down this long streak.Prediction:  Heat 104  Hawks 100OVER 197  (1.1 to win 1)

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks -Second game of the home and home between these two, and last night was certainly not a disappointment.  Last night was very fast paced, great shooting by both teams, especially from beyond the arc.  History and logic tells me that the Bucks will come out tonight and get the win...as that&#x27;s how home and home&#x27;s usually go.  Also really having a hard time seeing both of these teams getting over 100 points in regulation once again.  Brandon Jennings went nuts in the 3rd quarter to get the Bucks back into the game, and the Nets went nuts from 3, especially Joe Johnson hitting two crazy shots to send it to OT and win the game.  Nets struggle to win in Milwaukee...and on the road in general.Prediction:  Bucks 96  Nets 89UNDER 195  (1.1 to win 1)

Agaver · Answer

CMJ...I love reading your analysis each day...BOL

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets -22 point win.  30 point win.  That&#x27;s the two results from the first two meetings between these teams.  Thunder have absolutely OWNED the Rockets so far this season.  Putting up 120 and 124 is no joke as well.  Thunder struggled going into the All-Star break, losing against the Jazz in a look ahead game to the Heat...and then got shmacked down by the Heat on national television.  What might be the biggest factor for me is the Thunder&#x27;s incredible trend of winning SU and ATS or losing SU and ATS in games.  They just don&#x27;t win games but not cover.  The last time they won a game, and failed to cover was on January 18th against Dallas...the time before that was December 27th against Dallas.  As a matter of fact, it&#x27;s only happened 7 times all season.  So what are the odds that the Rockets win this game SU?  They are only 15-14 SU this season against teams with a winning record.  They are only 6-13 SU this season against teams that average 100&#x2B; points.Prediction:  Thunder 112  Rockets 108NO PLAY - - - - ENJOY THE GAME!!

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Philadelphia Sixers vs. Minnesota Wolves -Last 5 games for the Sixers they are averaging 83 points.  Last 7 games for the Sixers the games have averaged 169 points total.  First matchup between these two in Philly hit 193 points.  To me, that would be on the higher side.  It will either go up or down, and I highly doubt that this game approaches the 200 mark.  The Sixers have some meetings with the Heat and Knicks on the horizon and the Wolves have the Thunder and some Western rivals on the horizon.  No matter how much I look at this game, I can&#x27;t see much motivation.Prediction:  Wolves 90  Sixers 85UNDER 188  (2.2 to win 2)

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Orlando Magic vs. Dallas Mavericks -Is there any reason to take the Orlando Magic?  Because I&#x27;ve been looking at this game for a while, and I can&#x27;t&#x27; find one.  Mavericks very well rested being home since the 5th of February...only with one blip on the radar against the Hawks.  Magic struggle against teams with losing records.  Dallas is putting up 107 in their last 5 games, the Magic are allowing 104.  I can&#x27;t see any scenario where the Magic get 100 points in this game.  The only scenario I can see where the Mavericks don&#x27;t get over 100 is if they come out extremely lazy.  Without any big games on the schedule ahead, I don&#x27;t see it happening.Prediction:  Mavericks 108  Magic 92Dallas Mavericks -10.5  (1.1 to win 1)

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors -Good game here for the Warriors to get their defensive identity back.  First meeting on opening night hit a whopping 172 points...second matchup was a faster pace, and the Warriors went nuts and the total reached 206.  I have no idea what happened to this team that was supposedly going to be focused on defense...giving up 120 points routinely, and even a 140 spot thrown in there.  I&#x27;ll split the difference between the first two matchups in this game.Prediction:  Warriors 102  Suns 92UNDER 205  (1.1 to win 1)

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers -Called last night&#x27;s game against the Nuggets perfectly by saying that the spread was just a BIT TOO HIGH.  Well, the Celtics covered by a points.  Tonight is the qualifying "what the funk?" game of the night.  Do I see the Lakers winning this game?  Yes I do.  These teams routinely alternate wins during the regular season...both SU and ATS.  The Celtics aren&#x27;t as terrible this season as they have been in the past on B2B games...5-6 ATS.  The Celtics do very well this season against teams that give up 100&#x2B; points and they do very well against teams with a losing record.  The Lakers on the other hand are 7-14 ATS against the Eastern Conference, 12-17 ATS against teams with a winning record.  The referees in this game are not very home friendly either...and what this game really comes down to is that I don&#x27;t see the first matchup repeating itself where it is a blowout type of game.  I see the Lakers pounding the ball down low to Dwight Howard a lot more...the media pressure is high to do such a thing.  If that happens, it slows down the game, limits the rebounding potential (a Laker advantage), and keeps the game closer.  Prediction:  Lakers 97  Celtics 94Boston Celtics &#x2B;7  (2.2 to win 2)

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Good luck to everyone.  We will see how this new system works!!

HumbledGambler · Answer

Great stuff man.  Good luck to you. I will be on Memphis

p-lane1 · Answer

been at this a long time, and playing even more games is NOT the answer. Try 1 game on the days u gamble, and take frequent days off.

Jedi-Yorda · Answer

Good luck, CM!  Hope this method works better for you than it did for me.

CMJohnson1 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by p-lane1]    been at this a long time, and playing even more games is NOT the answer. Try 1 game on the days u gamble, and take frequent days off.    [/Quote]Like I said...I agree with that, but I wanted to test this theory out.Hopefully it will be profitable.

GilZero · Answer

I just read that ATL starting lineup is : Teague,Deshawn,Smith,Pachulia,Horford...

Man that is big lineup. I think they want to bang with Miami ( Indiana Pacers style)

I was thinking that This ATL lineup can hold Miami to under 101 points. They already played twice this season.

Your opinion?

GilZero · Answer

And ATL coach is talking how they prepared defensivly against miami, that they need to stop their transition... i really like this bet

docterd597 · Answer

Good job and good luck buddy, thanks for posting.

Johnson's NBA Wednesday 2/20

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