Posted:
#1
Good morning to all my American mates from here Down Under! This is my first post on this forum after lurking for a week, so I certainly don't expect anyone to be hanging off every word I say... but hopefully you will be by the end of the year. I'm a young aspiring journalist who already has a gig with an NBA magazine and will be heading to the States next year to study and play ball. Although it doesn't mean anything without written proof, I'm in a very tidy profit after starting the season with $10 and building my way up.
Anyway, on to the picks! I will start 0-0, as you normally do.
First of all, I thoroughly enjoy the looks of Boston +1.
The 'home court advantage' is non existent for the Bucks, who are 1-3 at home already in 2015-16 and have gone 12-13-1 as home favourite since last season. Their last four games have been against lottery teams in which they have won very unconvincingly without Michael Carter-Williams, who is out again for this encounter. To a much lesser extent, OJ Mayo is also sidelined. Not to mention they have only managed to accumulate 97.7 points per game against the aforementioned lottery teams in New York (twice), Brooklyn (twice), Philadelphia, as well as in losses to Toronto and Washington, whom the Bucks fell to by a combined margin of 34 points. You also can't forget the 25 point blow out at the hands of the Knicks to open the season, albeit the absence of The Greek Freak...
Defensively, the Bucks are 23rd in the league when it comes to efficiency, allowing 104.7 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, Boston have been putting up numbers on offence, 7th most in the league in fact, against quality opposition (TOR, SAN, IND, WAS) including the 20 point pumping of Washington a few days ago. Although against such sound opposition so far, the Cs are very defensively efficient as well, ranking 6th in the league in opposition points per 100 possessions. Quite amazingly the Celtics are 23-11-1 as road underdogs since last season too.
Perhaps the biggest contrast between the two teams is simply game pace, with almost a 10 possession gap between Cs and Bucks per game so far this season, 105.3 possessions and 96.1 possessions respectively. The much quicker paced Celtics will be looking to break open the game early and control the tempo, lead by lightning quick guard Isaiah Thomas, replacing the injured Marcus Smart at the 1 (hardly a downgrade, if a downgrade at all). This, along with the other facts supporting their line, all but enforce Boston +1 upon the statistical man like myself, while the fans of Milwaukee +1 may only see a (unconvincing) four game winning streak (against teams we won't see this post season).
As always, bet at your own risk but the statistics above are why I am backing the Cs this fine Tuesday! Also looking at Isaiah Thomas scoring over 21.5 points, which is also superbly backed by my above statements. Hopefully it doesn't blow out too much so IT can maximise his minutes. 30+ minutes equals 21+ points.
Let me know in the comments if you want my other pick written up, otherwise I'm heading to bed early so I can wake up early for another day of NBA action!
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