What’s happening covers family, the big day is just around the corner. This game is going to be super duper tight according to the odds maker and KC opening up @ - 1.5. I’ve never seen KC favs by this small of a # before. For me KC are favs because of their experience. Philly is an outstanding team but, there was no way Vegas were going to make the Eagle’s the fav , at least not at the opening line. Philly statistically is better on Defense. Philly: Pts allowed per game ( 17.9 ) Yards allowed ( 289.3 ) opponents 1st downs ( 17.5 ) opponents yards per passing attempts ( 5.5 ) opponents average passer rating ( 80.9 ) all better than KC by stats . KC isn’t far behind in any of those stats and are better in a few metrics defensively over Philly. It’s like comparing a S600 Benz to a M6 Turbo BMW, one is as good as the other. So don’t think Philly’s defense is elite over KC’s because they’re not . Defense wins championships. Philly’s SOS defensively ( offenses they’ve faced ) comes in @ around ( 16th + 0.5 % in strength ) , KC comes in @ around ( 17th + 0.3 % ) neck and neck. But, offensively Phillys offense had the easiest of defensive strength in the league @ a + 4.3 % ranked 32nd dead last in the league, KC’s offense of SOS vs defense league wide is @ 7th @ - 1.5 %. The lower the number the tougher it is. Philly had it easy on offense all year long, KC didn’t. The handle on this game tells me everything I need to know. Philly is the public team but, KC has a higher betting % & cash wagered %. If you understand what I’m saying, you understand it. Read between the lines. The team that lost the previous SB in a rematch vs the same team are 0-5 SU. Reid & Spags , are a lot smarter than Sirianni, Fangio and Moore. Reid & Mahomey are 8- 0 SU vs Fangio, with him as a HC or D coordinator. 8-0! Again. Would you rather have a Bugatti or a Range Rover ? Both very nice but, nothing compares to the Bugatti. KC’s coaching staff are superior. Philly. They should’ve let SB break ED’s rushing record. That shows me the mindset of this team. Reid would’ve let him break the all time record he SB played for him. Hurts was talking to the reporters the other day and said , this game is just like another game for him. Tells me , they don’t think they can beat KC. KC will play loose . Philly will play not to lose. Mahomes will dink and dunk his way all the way down the field on almost every possession. His passer rating throwing between 10 - 20 yards is 92%. They’ve played this way all year round and I don’t see this changing much. Philly ranks 21st league wide in stopping short passes of 10 to 20 yards per attempt. KC will have to stuff the block, which I know they will, because if they don’t, Philly will beat them. Philly is capable of winning this game only if , Spags doesn’t stack the box , which won’t happen. I’m not afraid of Hurts throwing but, they have to contain his run game as well. Mahomes is also running @ a very high rate as well in the postseason so that is a wash comparison. Special teams: KC ranks 12th , Philly ranks 14th. PFF have the chiefs winning by margin, and so do I . Been capping this game for 2 weeks. Phillys defense is very young, good but young . I think they get overwhelmed here against Reid and his squad and I believe KC wins by & least a touchdown. Only 3 remaining defensive players for Philly from the last SB. Matt Stafford shredded the eagles secondary a few weeks ago in a game they probably should’ve won ( Rams ). I’m not afraid of Hurts , their defense but, I’m concerned about SB. If Spags doesn’t his thing, which I know he will, KC wins comfortably. This will be an extremely large play for me. And remember KC won all year while , being banged up. They’re pretty much healthy now , and should win this to make history ( 3 in a row ) Let’s go! KC ML extremely large… GL
lets ride!
Great writeup, your reasoning seems sound to me. Bravo!!! 
...Kansas City CHEIFS
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