i had the lakers at -3 not a virtual pick'em.... besides la coming off a slow start in game 1, which i think was due to the long lay-off, the lake show dominates houston... yes i know d-fish is out but so what, i rather much have shannon brown or farmar on the floor as they can keep up with the speed of aaron brooks and kyle lowry...i just dont see the lakers going down 2-1 and having to win game 4 in houston...i might just be high and wrong but i just dont see it...
please inform me if im missing something....
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
i had the lakers at -3 not a virtual pick'em.... besides la coming off a slow start in game 1, which i think was due to the long lay-off, the lake show dominates houston... yes i know d-fish is out but so what, i rather much have shannon brown or farmar on the floor as they can keep up with the speed of aaron brooks and kyle lowry...i just dont see the lakers going down 2-1 and having to win game 4 in houston...i might just be high and wrong but i just dont see it...
You can check the public action coming in on the game tomorrow. I always look at line moves and try to see if the "money" is on one side and the "public" is on the other.
I think in this case both may be on the Lakers. But do check.
GL. I like the Lakers at that price myself, and can't help wondering why the line opened low and moved a half point against the Lake Show.
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You can check the public action coming in on the game tomorrow. I always look at line moves and try to see if the "money" is on one side and the "public" is on the other.
I think in this case both may be on the Lakers. But do check.
GL. I like the Lakers at that price myself, and can't help wondering why the line opened low and moved a half point against the Lake Show.
i agree mcalpine, this just seems waaayyyyyy tooo fishy... how can the line be moving the other way??
lakers have won the last 3 of 4 in houston. lakers won by 6,5, and 3 points in those contest making the avg. win margin by 4.67...so lets just say 4.5 fisher MIGHT be worth bringing the line down 1.5 points but that is being VERY generous so line should be -3 like i said in thread number 1.... and the game the lakers lost pasol, bynum and ariza didnt play. as for houston yao didnt play. kinda of weird game in 08 that i dont think it really can be counted into what is going on right now.
ahhhh am i soo confused somebody please help!!
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i agree mcalpine, this just seems waaayyyyyy tooo fishy... how can the line be moving the other way??
lakers have won the last 3 of 4 in houston. lakers won by 6,5, and 3 points in those contest making the avg. win margin by 4.67...so lets just say 4.5 fisher MIGHT be worth bringing the line down 1.5 points but that is being VERY generous so line should be -3 like i said in thread number 1.... and the game the lakers lost pasol, bynum and ariza didnt play. as for houston yao didnt play. kinda of weird game in 08 that i dont think it really can be counted into what is going on right now.
well houston has proved they can play with lakers in first 2 games line is about right dont really think its a trap houston is really goood home team fisher is out wont be suprised if houston wins
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well houston has proved they can play with lakers in first 2 games line is about right dont really think its a trap houston is really goood home team fisher is out wont be suprised if houston wins
OK, I checked an overseas book and found action on the Lakers coming in at 83%, yet the line moved 1/2 point in Houston's favor. Money is coming in on Houston.
Interestingly, 69% of the action is coming in on Boston tomorrow, yet the line moved half a point in Orlando's favor. Money is coming in on Orlando.
I guess both are red flags, but the "public" is not always wrong, and these line movements are early.
(I kind of like the Orlando bet.)
Still, I think the Lakers are better, deeper, and motivated. I may bet "square" on that one.
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OK, I checked an overseas book and found action on the Lakers coming in at 83%, yet the line moved 1/2 point in Houston's favor. Money is coming in on Houston.
Interestingly, 69% of the action is coming in on Boston tomorrow, yet the line moved half a point in Orlando's favor. Money is coming in on Orlando.
I guess both are red flags, but the "public" is not always wrong, and these line movements are early.
(I kind of like the Orlando bet.)
Still, I think the Lakers are better, deeper, and motivated. I may bet "square" on that one.
McAlpine, i'm still up in air about the celtics tomorrow, i think they may pull it off w/ the points... i imagine no matter what they made the line that the celtics would still be a heavy fav with alston out vs the defending champs.
I'm thinking this may also turn out like when d. howard was out and c. lee yet they still steam rolled the sixers. We could all get taken in this situation, kind of why it's harder to cap games when injuries or people are suspended.
Right now I like the Celtics... I think the public cashes on them tomorrow, then I like the Rockets to give the Lakers a loss in Houston, then win the next game.
Rockets coming home, crowd will be amp'd, Artest will be amp'd, Scola was made to look soft by the Lakers - he'll play extra hard, and Yao will dominate.
Just my thoughts.
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McAlpine, i'm still up in air about the celtics tomorrow, i think they may pull it off w/ the points... i imagine no matter what they made the line that the celtics would still be a heavy fav with alston out vs the defending champs.
I'm thinking this may also turn out like when d. howard was out and c. lee yet they still steam rolled the sixers. We could all get taken in this situation, kind of why it's harder to cap games when injuries or people are suspended.
Right now I like the Celtics... I think the public cashes on them tomorrow, then I like the Rockets to give the Lakers a loss in Houston, then win the next game.
Rockets coming home, crowd will be amp'd, Artest will be amp'd, Scola was made to look soft by the Lakers - he'll play extra hard, and Yao will dominate.
*Right now I like the Celtics... I think the public cashes on them
tomorrow, then I like the Rockets to give the Lakers a loss in Houston,
then the Lakers win the next game.
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*Right now I like the Celtics... I think the public cashes on them
tomorrow, then I like the Rockets to give the Lakers a loss in Houston,
then the Lakers win the next game.
I don't believe this is a trap. The Lakers are without Fisher and on the road and Houston is very good at home. I am a Lakers fan but actually leaning towards Houston in Game 3. Then the Lakers will come back and win Game 4 and 5. BOL whatever you do.
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I don't believe this is a trap. The Lakers are without Fisher and on the road and Houston is very good at home. I am a Lakers fan but actually leaning towards Houston in Game 3. Then the Lakers will come back and win Game 4 and 5. BOL whatever you do.
i wouldn't call this game a trap, rockets proved they could beat the lakers, they are a strong team, even beat the lakers in staples center, now the rockets are at home and will be an even tougher team.
plus derek fisher is suspended.
so i believe the line sits at the correct spot.
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i wouldn't call this game a trap, rockets proved they could beat the lakers, they are a strong team, even beat the lakers in staples center, now the rockets are at home and will be an even tougher team.
Rockets will take this game I feel. They are my favorite team and I really wanted them to win this series. Think they are in great position now. Just got to take care of home court!
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Rockets will take this game I feel. They are my favorite team and I really wanted them to win this series. Think they are in great position now. Just got to take care of home court!
Rockets aren't scared of the laker and know they can play against them. If Kobe needs to score 40 point every game just for the Lakers to have a chance, their going to be in trouble. Remember the Lakers vs Phoenix pre Gasol with no help, don't look if it repeat itself in this series.
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Rockets aren't scared of the laker and know they can play against them. If Kobe needs to score 40 point every game just for the Lakers to have a chance, their going to be in trouble. Remember the Lakers vs Phoenix pre Gasol with no help, don't look if it repeat itself in this series.
the line moves because publlic is putting money on one side so in order for bookmaker to balance out and earn on the juice they have to tilt the market...
plus did you say houston should be 3.5?
houston-backers china market? how many people are in china
bynum is not 100% and it recently shows- bookmakers are aware of that?-pt value taken
fisher out SUSPENDED -pt value taken
referries-missed out the call last game so i think houston got the favor for this specially with yao's game?
make sense?
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im working in a sportsbook company
the line moves because publlic is putting money on one side so in order for bookmaker to balance out and earn on the juice they have to tilt the market...
plus did you say houston should be 3.5?
houston-backers china market? how many people are in china
bynum is not 100% and it recently shows- bookmakers are aware of that?-pt value taken
fisher out SUSPENDED -pt value taken
referries-missed out the call last game so i think houston got the favor for this specially with yao's game?
You are right the Booksmakers are drinking Coronas just planning on how they can TRAP everyone- They are so smart that they sit there and have the CRYSTAL ball and say okay we already know the winner, so lets now just trap everyone---
Lakers -1-- It could be a TRAP right cause lakers are awesome and Fisher is out, so is too easy?
Rockets+1- lakers beat them up last game, at home, only 1 point, is it a TRAP or too easy?
There is no TRAPS in sports, the only TRAP is in the bettors HEAD-
Last time I checked this is a basketball game decided by 10 players and not the oddsmakers with the Crystal ball--
Think about this, nothing is a TRAP, A TRAP is just a WEAK MENTALLY person who complains and blames losses on TRAPS-
Understand this it will save you huge money.
0
You are right the Booksmakers are drinking Coronas just planning on how they can TRAP everyone- They are so smart that they sit there and have the CRYSTAL ball and say okay we already know the winner, so lets now just trap everyone---
Lakers -1-- It could be a TRAP right cause lakers are awesome and Fisher is out, so is too easy?
Rockets+1- lakers beat them up last game, at home, only 1 point, is it a TRAP or too easy?
There is no TRAPS in sports, the only TRAP is in the bettors HEAD-
Last time I checked this is a basketball game decided by 10 players and not the oddsmakers with the Crystal ball--
Think about this, nothing is a TRAP, A TRAP is just a WEAK MENTALLY person who complains and blames losses on TRAPS-
A trap is a deception created to suck you in. Vegas oddmakers set lines based on public perception of that particular game, and hope they deceived them by making it very easy for them to make their selections.
Traps do exist believe it or not. It happens more often in the NFL and top 25 college games. If you been gambling long enough, how many NFL games have you ran into that was just to good to past, yet you still lose. I'm fairly certain many, Especially in them conference Rival games.
If I had to pick this game blindly, I would go with the Lakers for obvious the reason. Kobe Bryant, Last year West finals Champs, Phil Jackson 9 Championship, I mean how can you pass that up. That is what the vast majority will look at and ride with. And if the Lakers lose, the trap has been set and Vegas makes a huge profit. If not they're still get it back later during the week, because that's what most degenerate's do. Lose it right back!
0
A trap is a deception created to suck you in. Vegas oddmakers set lines based on public perception of that particular game, and hope they deceived them by making it very easy for them to make their selections.
Traps do exist believe it or not. It happens more often in the NFL and top 25 college games. If you been gambling long enough, how many NFL games have you ran into that was just to good to past, yet you still lose. I'm fairly certain many, Especially in them conference Rival games.
If I had to pick this game blindly, I would go with the Lakers for obvious the reason. Kobe Bryant, Last year West finals Champs, Phil Jackson 9 Championship, I mean how can you pass that up. That is what the vast majority will look at and ride with. And if the Lakers lose, the trap has been set and Vegas makes a huge profit. If not they're still get it back later during the week, because that's what most degenerate's do. Lose it right back!
You are right the Booksmakers are drinking Coronas just planning on how they can TRAP everyone- They are so smart that they sit there and have the CRYSTAL ball and say okay we already know the winner, so lets now just trap everyone---
Lakers -1-- It could be a TRAP right cause lakers are awesome and Fisher is out, so is too easy?
Rockets+1- lakers beat them up last game, at home, only 1 point, is it a TRAP or too easy?
There is no TRAPS in sports, the only TRAP is in the bettors HEAD-
Last time I checked this is a basketball game decided by 10 players and not the oddsmakers with the Crystal ball--
Think about this, nothing is a TRAP, A TRAP is just a WEAK MENTALLY person who complains and blames losses on TRAPS-
Understand this it will save you huge money.
yes and no... yes there are traps because the oddmakers DO know what they are doing...they are risking a lot of money and they better make sure their investment pays off...they set lines because they know how the public bets and they have super computers spitting out lines for them, thats is why they HATE sharp betters as they too usually have tools that can spit out numbers and if they see a weak line they exploit it...
for example, this season there was a game on 11/29 g-state vs.knicks and the total was set at game time 223.5 and i believe it opened at 228. the reason for the huge line movement was because these 2 teams never played a game totaling this number in a very long time and an opening number at 228 at that point of the season was the highest total, so everyone pounded on the under thinking it was easy money and BAM final score 125-138. a total of 262 with NO OT...but you know what the sharps definitaly cashed in BIG with the easy over.... i have many other games to go through even with ATS but i hope you get my point, the bookmakers dont pass out free money and the under in that game looked so dam easy but it wasnt. and i would have to call that a trap.
no there are no traps because the example i showed you wont happen EVERY game and a lot of time it is in your head and you just cant pull the trigger. i also think the bookmakers job is to create debate and make you think so it alters your decision but like you said it is decided by the players and not a crystal ball....
So with all this being said, I just want to make sure im on the RIGHT side and i guess im thinking this could be a trap cuz i am from LA and i still dont think houston is as solid as everyone is saying they are...maybe im biast but YAO will look tired as he is caring all the load for this rocket team, dont you think he got in foul trouble because LA was much sharper in defense since they finally got back into the playoff mode after a long layoff? also since he is getting tired really fast, he makes silly fouls that will send him to the bench and then who does the rockets have inside? also people say homecourt advantage but the first game with all those ticky tacky calls on bynum in la? c'mon wheres the home court love there? if it could happen to bynum in la why cant it happen to yao in houston? still very conflicted but starting to lean toward houston and i do believe orlando will be solid tomorrow...
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Quote Originally Posted by Sammy_Meatballs:
You are right the Booksmakers are drinking Coronas just planning on how they can TRAP everyone- They are so smart that they sit there and have the CRYSTAL ball and say okay we already know the winner, so lets now just trap everyone---
Lakers -1-- It could be a TRAP right cause lakers are awesome and Fisher is out, so is too easy?
Rockets+1- lakers beat them up last game, at home, only 1 point, is it a TRAP or too easy?
There is no TRAPS in sports, the only TRAP is in the bettors HEAD-
Last time I checked this is a basketball game decided by 10 players and not the oddsmakers with the Crystal ball--
Think about this, nothing is a TRAP, A TRAP is just a WEAK MENTALLY person who complains and blames losses on TRAPS-
Understand this it will save you huge money.
yes and no... yes there are traps because the oddmakers DO know what they are doing...they are risking a lot of money and they better make sure their investment pays off...they set lines because they know how the public bets and they have super computers spitting out lines for them, thats is why they HATE sharp betters as they too usually have tools that can spit out numbers and if they see a weak line they exploit it...
for example, this season there was a game on 11/29 g-state vs.knicks and the total was set at game time 223.5 and i believe it opened at 228. the reason for the huge line movement was because these 2 teams never played a game totaling this number in a very long time and an opening number at 228 at that point of the season was the highest total, so everyone pounded on the under thinking it was easy money and BAM final score 125-138. a total of 262 with NO OT...but you know what the sharps definitaly cashed in BIG with the easy over.... i have many other games to go through even with ATS but i hope you get my point, the bookmakers dont pass out free money and the under in that game looked so dam easy but it wasnt. and i would have to call that a trap.
no there are no traps because the example i showed you wont happen EVERY game and a lot of time it is in your head and you just cant pull the trigger. i also think the bookmakers job is to create debate and make you think so it alters your decision but like you said it is decided by the players and not a crystal ball....
So with all this being said, I just want to make sure im on the RIGHT side and i guess im thinking this could be a trap cuz i am from LA and i still dont think houston is as solid as everyone is saying they are...maybe im biast but YAO will look tired as he is caring all the load for this rocket team, dont you think he got in foul trouble because LA was much sharper in defense since they finally got back into the playoff mode after a long layoff? also since he is getting tired really fast, he makes silly fouls that will send him to the bench and then who does the rockets have inside? also people say homecourt advantage but the first game with all those ticky tacky calls on bynum in la? c'mon wheres the home court love there? if it could happen to bynum in la why cant it happen to yao in houston? still very conflicted but starting to lean toward houston and i do believe orlando will be solid tomorrow...
A trap is a deception created to suck you in. Vegas oddmakers set lines based on public perception of that particular game, and hope they deceived them by making it very easy for them to make their selections.
Traps do exist believe it or not. It happens more often in the NFL and top 25 college games. If you been gambling long enough, how many NFL games have you ran into that was just to good to past, yet you still lose. I'm fairly certain many, Especially in them conference Rival games.
If I had to pick this game blindly, I would go with the Lakers for obvious the reason. Kobe Bryant, Last year West finals Champs, Phil Jackson 9 Championship, I mean how can you pass that up. That is what the vast majority will look at and ride with. And if the Lakers lose, the trap has been set and Vegas makes a huge profit. If not they're still get it back later during the week, because that's what most degenerate's do. Lose it right back!
YEAH WHATEVER HE SAID!! LOL YOU SAID IT SO MUCH BETTER THAN I DID
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Quote Originally Posted by frostno98:
A trap is a deception created to suck you in. Vegas oddmakers set lines based on public perception of that particular game, and hope they deceived them by making it very easy for them to make their selections.
Traps do exist believe it or not. It happens more often in the NFL and top 25 college games. If you been gambling long enough, how many NFL games have you ran into that was just to good to past, yet you still lose. I'm fairly certain many, Especially in them conference Rival games.
If I had to pick this game blindly, I would go with the Lakers for obvious the reason. Kobe Bryant, Last year West finals Champs, Phil Jackson 9 Championship, I mean how can you pass that up. That is what the vast majority will look at and ride with. And if the Lakers lose, the trap has been set and Vegas makes a huge profit. If not they're still get it back later during the week, because that's what most degenerate's do. Lose it right back!
YEAH WHATEVER HE SAID!! LOL YOU SAID IT SO MUCH BETTER THAN I DID
the line moves because publlic is putting money on one side so in order for bookmaker to balance out and earn on the juice they have to tilt the market...
plus did you say houston should be 3.5?
houston-backers china market? how many people are in china
bynum is not 100% and it recently shows- bookmakers are aware of that?-pt value taken
fisher out SUSPENDED -pt value taken
referries-missed out the call last game so i think houston got the favor for this specially with yao's game?
make sense?
MAKES TOTAL SENSE now leaning toward houston....
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Quote Originally Posted by da__man:
im working in a sportsbook company
the line moves because publlic is putting money on one side so in order for bookmaker to balance out and earn on the juice they have to tilt the market...
plus did you say houston should be 3.5?
houston-backers china market? how many people are in china
bynum is not 100% and it recently shows- bookmakers are aware of that?-pt value taken
fisher out SUSPENDED -pt value taken
referries-missed out the call last game so i think houston got the favor for this specially with yao's game?
OK, I checked an overseas book and found action on the Lakers coming in at 83%, yet the line moved 1/2 point in Houston's favor. Money is coming in on Houston.
Interestingly, 69% of the action is coming in on Boston tomorrow, yet the line moved half a point in Orlando's favor. Money is coming in on Orlando.
I guess both are red flags, but the "public" is not always wrong, and these line movements are early.
(I kind of like the Orlando bet.)
Still, I think the Lakers are better, deeper, and motivated. I may bet "square" on that one.
if this is true i will go with orlando and houston but my book still has orlando at -4 and lakers at -1 so until i see movement im going to hold off cuz wats the difference from -1 to -1.5 if im on the right side...
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Quote Originally Posted by McAlpine:
OK, I checked an overseas book and found action on the Lakers coming in at 83%, yet the line moved 1/2 point in Houston's favor. Money is coming in on Houston.
Interestingly, 69% of the action is coming in on Boston tomorrow, yet the line moved half a point in Orlando's favor. Money is coming in on Orlando.
I guess both are red flags, but the "public" is not always wrong, and these line movements are early.
(I kind of like the Orlando bet.)
Still, I think the Lakers are better, deeper, and motivated. I may bet "square" on that one.
if this is true i will go with orlando and houston but my book still has orlando at -4 and lakers at -1 so until i see movement im going to hold off cuz wats the difference from -1 to -1.5 if im on the right side...
2 Digits-- I wont comment too much on the LINES and how they put out certain lines cause it is irrelevant--
I will comment on one thing though my friend--
When you cap a game the reason you think its a TRAP is because you are giving too much importance on the LINE--
Cap the game on the FINAL SCORE and the TEAMS involved--
If you think lakers win easily TAKE THEM tomorrow--
If you think Rockets win easily TAKE them tomorrow--
The game is always capped with the teams and after that you look at the SPREAD--
Imagine in a game with 2 teams, 10 NBA players tomorrow being played in HOUSTON--
CAPPER A- He caps the game and figures that Lakers are too strong and KOBE and company are better and should win tomorrow and bets LAKERS -1 for $500--
CAPPER B- He is on the fence is not really sure, but is leaning towards LAKERS-- However he then THINKS wait its too easy its only -1, they are trying to TRICK ME- wait maybe its a REVERSE TRAP to make people take HOUSTON cause lakers will win anyway?
What has HAPPENED HERE IS SIMPLE MY FRIEND--
ONE CAPPER HAS CAPPED THE GAME BASED ON WHO HE THINKS WILL WIN THE GAME--
THe other CAPPER has CAPPED the game BASED ON A NUMBER- Imagine letting a NUMBER INFLUENCE your decision-- That is what CAPPER B did--
NEVER be afraid of a NUMBER--
If you belive in TRAPS you are AFRAID OF NUMBERS---
If you dont believe your NUMBERS are stronger than the BOOKS numbers you are in the wrong business--
THink about this clearly it is 100% correct--
Game is decided on the COURT< tie game late, will the game be decided by KOBe hitting that last shot or that NUMBER that Vegas created?
Its just a NUMBER in reality- remember that.
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2 Digits-- I wont comment too much on the LINES and how they put out certain lines cause it is irrelevant--
I will comment on one thing though my friend--
When you cap a game the reason you think its a TRAP is because you are giving too much importance on the LINE--
Cap the game on the FINAL SCORE and the TEAMS involved--
If you think lakers win easily TAKE THEM tomorrow--
If you think Rockets win easily TAKE them tomorrow--
The game is always capped with the teams and after that you look at the SPREAD--
Imagine in a game with 2 teams, 10 NBA players tomorrow being played in HOUSTON--
CAPPER A- He caps the game and figures that Lakers are too strong and KOBE and company are better and should win tomorrow and bets LAKERS -1 for $500--
CAPPER B- He is on the fence is not really sure, but is leaning towards LAKERS-- However he then THINKS wait its too easy its only -1, they are trying to TRICK ME- wait maybe its a REVERSE TRAP to make people take HOUSTON cause lakers will win anyway?
What has HAPPENED HERE IS SIMPLE MY FRIEND--
ONE CAPPER HAS CAPPED THE GAME BASED ON WHO HE THINKS WILL WIN THE GAME--
THe other CAPPER has CAPPED the game BASED ON A NUMBER- Imagine letting a NUMBER INFLUENCE your decision-- That is what CAPPER B did--
NEVER be afraid of a NUMBER--
If you belive in TRAPS you are AFRAID OF NUMBERS---
If you dont believe your NUMBERS are stronger than the BOOKS numbers you are in the wrong business--
THink about this clearly it is 100% correct--
Game is decided on the COURT< tie game late, will the game be decided by KOBe hitting that last shot or that NUMBER that Vegas created?
There is no trick line. This is a totally even game and that's why the line is at a virtual pick'em. Derek Fisher is out and the loss of a veteran leader with plenty of postseason experience hurts in a hostile enviornment. Rockets probably have a little advantage in this game but the Lakers have Kobe. The line is correct. So just pick'em boys
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There is no trick line. This is a totally even game and that's why the line is at a virtual pick'em. Derek Fisher is out and the loss of a veteran leader with plenty of postseason experience hurts in a hostile enviornment. Rockets probably have a little advantage in this game but the Lakers have Kobe. The line is correct. So just pick'em boys
also the reason why i think this is a trap is like what i said in thread number 1 and 3 the line should be somewhere from -3 to -4.5 lakers. but its at -1 lakers AND a lot of you are saying houston wins game 3 and for game 4 the lakers will take it and the line being at -4, -4.5... this makes total since and if this holds up then i would have fell right into the trap if i didnt listen to you guys....
obvioulsy i was thinking the opposite as lakers take a commanding 2-1 lead after game 3 and barely sqeek by game 4 but letting the rockets cover late in the game at the higher number...
still flip flopping like kobe...will be back tomorrow as i am waay too tired and high to keep thinking about this....
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also the reason why i think this is a trap is like what i said in thread number 1 and 3 the line should be somewhere from -3 to -4.5 lakers. but its at -1 lakers AND a lot of you are saying houston wins game 3 and for game 4 the lakers will take it and the line being at -4, -4.5... this makes total since and if this holds up then i would have fell right into the trap if i didnt listen to you guys....
obvioulsy i was thinking the opposite as lakers take a commanding 2-1 lead after game 3 and barely sqeek by game 4 but letting the rockets cover late in the game at the higher number...
still flip flopping like kobe...will be back tomorrow as i am waay too tired and high to keep thinking about this....
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