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Lesson to be learned in sports betting. (Blazers @ Heat)

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Legend
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Posted: #1
How many time have I seen this?
 
Countless......
 
Portland Trailblazers -4 (or -3.5) at Miami Heat
 
When a line looks way too good to be true, and an overwhelming percetange bets are one-sided and the line moves the opposite direction, it's a tell from our friends from Vegas.
 
Tonight, it's either Heat or pass.
 
Sportsinsights.com
71% on Blazers spread
75% on Heat Moneyline.
 
Too many times I've seen this and people still don't get it.
 
B E W A R E
 
(Blazers can win by 30, but I ain't touching them tonight)
 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #2
Could not agree with you more.  NBA lines are notorious for this.  9 times out of 10 if its seems to good to be true there is a reason.  The only thing that pisses me off is that you now see this in the NFL, NCAAB, and NCAAF.  It used to be just in the NBA(which I hate to bet because no one gives a fuck), but unfortunately it is trickling down to the others. 

GL ALL.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Portland 1st ¼  
 
Banned
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Posted: #4
I see youve read my book....
 
 
Legend
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Posted: #5
I can guarantee you those people playing Heat moneyline are a few wiseguys with large amount of money.
 
Why play -110 when you can get +145 or better?
 
 
 
Legend
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by A_Lamb_of_God:

I see youve read my book....
 

I just saw your thread. It's the same topic. I should've answered there.

It's true.

There will be nights when Vegas releases a whacky line and people think it's a gift from God, only to see it lose. (Not saying Blazers will not cover, just the majority of cases the overwhelming team don't cover.

 
Legend
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Posted: #7
Heat are 2-15 ATS in the last 17 games.
 
Watch this... (Last 17 games for Heat, ATS results)
 
L - 1
L - 2
L - 3
L - 4
L - 5
W - 1
L - 1
L - 2
L - 3
L - 4
L - 5
W - 1
L - 1
L - 2
L - 3
L - 4
L - 5
?? - ??
 
Rookie
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Posted: #8
Quite often, veteran gamblers become paranoiae, they overanalize things and we can't blame them because of their past painful experiences.  Las Vegas loves this.  Frequently, we miss a real opportunity when it is really THE one which Las Vegas wants to give back.  We end up more confused than ever and subsequently, we once again, become paranoid and overanalize the game.  Let me put it this way.  What IF Las Vegas makes Miami a chalk of -2 tonight!.  Whom shall you pick?  So tonight, who is a more talented team?  as simple as that. Donot overanalize and complicate things in your life.  This is my 2 cents contribution.
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
Yes agreed, although i could never play heat in the spot cause i d kick my self if they are down 30 by halftime, but did play on the total over only to see in the paper which i never read, that reily been preaching defense in practice yesterday hoping it doesnt work and 1 the run and gun like they did against Chi or 2. they get into foul trouble and push it over that way
 
Legend
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by jeopardy:

Quite often, veteran gamblers become paranoiae, they overanalize things and we can't blame them because of their past painful experiences.  Las Vegas loves this.  Frequently, we miss a real opportunity when it is really THE one which Las Vegas wants to give back.  We end up more confused than ever and subsequently, we once again, become paranoid and overanalize the game.  Let me put it this way.  What IF Las Vegas makes Miami a chalk of -2 tonight!.  Whom shall you pick?  So tonight, who is a more talented team?  as simple as that. Donot overanalize and complicate things in your life.  This is my 2 cents contribution.

If you go by Power Ratings, Blazers are about 8-12 points better than Heat on a neutral court right now.

If you deduct three points for Heat HCA, you'd have Blazers laying 5-9 points at Miami.

Shaq is worth about 1 or 2 points at the spread. That's why official opening line was -3.5. But the problem is Vegas went at the lower end for Blazers rather than higher end.

 

 
Legend
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

How many time have I seen this?
 
Countless......
 
Portland Trailblazers -4 (or -3.5) at Miami Heat
 
When a line looks way too good to be true, and an overwhelming percetange bets are one-sided and the line moves the opposite direction, it's a tell from our friends from Vegas.
 
Tonight, it's either Heat or pass.
 
Sportsinsights.com
71% on Blazers spread
75% on Heat Moneyline.
 
Too many times I've seen this and people still don't get it.
 
B E W A R E
 
(Blazers can win by 30, but I ain't touching them tonight)
 

It happens almost everytime.

Another example is the suspect lines for the Houston Rockets games when McGrady isn't playing !!!!

 
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Posted: #12
 
Veteran
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Posted: #13
great insight and stats bro.  thanks for sharing. i was thinking the same thing, but no way can i put money on miami no play for me

Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

I can guarantee you those people playing Heat moneyline are a few wiseguys with large amount of money.
 
Why play -110 when you can get +145 or better?
 
 


wiseguys
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

Heat are 2-15 ATS in the last 17 games.
 
Watch this... (Last 17 games for Heat, ATS results)
 
L - 1
L - 2
L - 3
L - 4
L - 5
W - 1
L - 1
L - 2
L - 3
L - 4
L - 5
W - 1
L - 1
L - 2
L - 3
L - 4
L - 5
?? - ??

 

not like bacarat is it??  lol..

 

the heat cost me money against the bulls the other night so i tried to put on them tonight, but missed it.  oh well, hope it hits for you.

 
MVP
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Posted: #15
 Your right V  I played the  heat ml  and +4  . I'm banking on shaq  I got a bigger play on the under. Good luck on all your plays.
 
Legend
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Posted: #16
Heat down by 9 at halftime.
 
I expect the bashers to come in full force in Blazers do indeed blow out Heat.
 
They'll feel on top of the world with their "easy, gift from God" Blazers line pick.
 
Can't wait.....
 
Legend
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Posted: #17
in = if
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
HEAT 2ND HALF AND HEAT GAME ARE MY LOCKS TONITE.  I POSTED THEM. IM WITH YOU VGPOP ALL THE WAY.  LETS GO HEAT
 
Captain
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Posts: 7618
Posted: #19
Let them bash all they want if it happens - Heat wasn't and hasn't been a good side to put your money on this season.

Got them blacklisted long time ago - and now I simply ignore their games.... Just like the people of Miami seem to do
 
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Posted: #20
Great thread. This is why I said this is an absolutely perfect line for the books. In generates the desired action on both sides. Portland, the team viewed as the stronger side, looks like a fricking gimme to its backers at -3.5 to -4.5. The Heat are tempting because of their cold streak and the return of Shaq. A line like this will also have people looking at the moneyline. People will think "the hell with the points, I'll just take Miami outright."
 
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Posted: #21
Simply put, Brandon Roy is a money line machine!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
I realise that its only 3/4 time but it looks as though the wiseguys get paid
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #23
not over yet, but doesnt look promising.
This is what bad teams do, one minute they are up 7 points, the next they are down 6.
 
Legend
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Posts: 41899
Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:

not over yet, but doesnt look promising.
This is what bad teams do, one minute they are up 7 points, the next they are down 6.

4th Q was brutal for Heat backers.

Vegas indeed got a hit tonight. A lot of people won tonight. For me, I rather pass in games like this.

Heat just cannot compete.

If they can't beat Knicks, they'd be looking at 17+ games losing streak.

 
 
Captain
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

4th Q was brutal for Heat backers.

Vegas indeed got a hit tonight. A lot of people won tonight. For me, I rather pass in games like this.

Heat just cannot compete.

If they can't beat Knicks, they'd be looking at 17+ games losing streak.

 

how do you know vegas took a hit? I mean there was alot of action on the heat ml as well.

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