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#1
LOW POST: Celtics @ Heat (Honey Do)
Back by popular demand...lol.
I have some time today so I will write this one up.
I got down on the Celtics +10 tonight. I am playing them for a number of reasons, one being that Miami just returned home from a road trip that began back on January 7. Historically, the Heat are 7-19 in their first home game following a road trip 7 days or longer.
This road trip + tonights game will end a 5 game in 7 night(s) span for the Heat and will serve as a historically brutal situation for basketball teams, especially favorites.
This unattractive record, is typical for every type of sports team that comes off a long road trip. In fact, these games are so have been so historically bad for home teams that oddsmakers and, even the players, refer to it as a "honey do" game.
Honey Do basically is old phrase that refers to a list of tasks (written on paper) that are attached to a door by a wife who's husband has been gone for longer then a week. (1) Fix the light, wash the car, mow the lawn...etc. Of course the letter obviously starts with "Honey, now that your home can you do ..."
Though this old fashioned list probably wasn't stapled to the gate of LeBron James Mansion last night... you would be surprised the stuff even these guys have to do to readjust, just like us normal people, when they get home from a long trip. Much less regimented then hotel life.
In addition to the honey Do factor.... Miami has a knack for stepping it up for big games and a curiously similar knack for stepping down for less important games. This season the Heat are sporting a SU record of 10-15 versus teams under .500 and at home are just 4-6 SU against sub .500 teams.
So I factor Miami first home game angle and then add (+) their lack of interest in "non-big games) and I get (=) a Miami flat performance.
I think on the flip side the Celtics will come in with a chip on their shoulder as they could/should have beat the Heat earlier in the season but lost on a buzzer beater.
The Celtic's actually are finding themselves with Rondo's return. The return of Rondo for Boston (even though he will be limited to about 25 mins) will be a major difference for the celtics they didn't have before. Also, Boston recent run of losses, do not include Rondo as he has just returned a few games ago in a time the Celtic's look vastly improved. In addition the Celtics have given Jarred Sullinger a longer leash and he has been taking advantage and playing well. He is helped greatly by Humphries, who can steady the ship and produce on offense and defense.
Tonight, since Bayless can't go for Boston, I expect the game to be slower and lower. I think the Celtics go into the paint and try to use the big fellas, this because the speed of Bayless is gone, so it would suit their chances best. Miami's Bosh just logged a ton of minutes last night and has burdened more then his share the past couple weeks with Birdman in and out of the line-up.
Tonight Miami will do what they always do in this spot...and that is the bare minimum...but I think the Celtics are coming in swinging. Always take the team with more heart, especially +10.
Play the Celtics +10
Good Luck!
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