Wolfond: Warriors in 7
It's going to be really interesting to see the distinct ways these two offenses - which are each structured differently - maneuver around the other team's vaunted defense.
For the Celtics, it's going to mean a lot of mismatch-hunting, with Tatum and Brown dragging Curry and Poole into screening action and playing out of whatever advantage that creates, be it a switch or (more likely) a hedge. We can expect to see a lot of roll man Marcus Smart in this series. (Smart being Smart, he'll also probably try his hand at attacking Curry one-on-one and taking him into the post at various points.)
The Warriors showed in the West finals against Dallas that they can protect their weaker defenders quite effectively with pre-switches and pre-rotations, layers of help, and airtight rotations behind their show-and-recover work on the ball. They've also shown a penchant for zone and may look to emulate the Heat's strategy from the latter stages of the East finals, giving the initial switch but then immediately bringing a double-team to get the ball out of Tatum's or Brown's hands.
I'm curious how often the Warriors will switch when the Celtics run more conventional pick-and-roll with their bigs as a way to take away Williams III's dives and Horford's pops. We know they'll switch when Green is defending the screener (and they'll pre-switch to get him into those actions when possible), but what about Looney? The Warriors were more than willing to switch him onto Luka Doncic last round, but Tatum has a bit more rim-pressuring north-south pop than Doncic does, so it's unclear if they'll be as keen to pull their rim-protector away from the basket here.
There won't be much mismatch-hunting from Golden State's side because a) that's not how their offense operates, and b) Boston has no weak individual defenders to attack, save for the odd Payton Pritchard shift. Instead, the Warriors will run their egalitarian motion offense, rife with off-ball screens and weak-side activity, in an attempt to confound and poke holes in the Celtics' hyper-connected defense.
In the East finals, Boston actually leaned away from its switch-oriented base and into deep drop coverage, taking advantage of Miami's shaky pull-up shooting. That's obviously not going to be an option in this series, at least not to nearly the same extent. The Celtics will presumably look to switch most of Golden State's off-ball actions (which they also typically did against the Heat) and roll with some combination of switching and showing at the level against ball screens.
That's where Williams III's health looms large. He was magnificent at points in the Heat series, but he looked hobbled by the end of it. Two-big lineups anchored by his rim protection on the backline are Boston's best hope of defending Golden State's 3-point brigade without getting burned too badly by slips to the basket, four-on-three short-rolls, or back cuts against top-locks. The Warriors dice defenses up at the rim as often as they do so from the perimeter; there's a reason Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Grizzlies were by far the most successful team at defending them this postseason.
To that point, it will be interesting to see how often these teams roll with their "big" lineups - Golden State with Looney and Green in the frontcourt, Boston with Williams III and Horford - versus downsizing with Green and Horford (or even Grant Williams) at center. Small ball is a big part of both teams' identities, but they've both been at their best this postseason when they size up.
This feels extremely close to me, but the Warriors look healthier, have more offensive artillery, and have experience on their side, so I'm giving them the slight edge.
Early Bird gets the Worm 
Celtics +4.0 Bet 365 @ Golden State Warriors * 9:00 PM * NBA Championship * GM #1
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