Posted:
#1
It's an unconventional play if you are willing to play it.
ONE bad quarter did the Blazers in last time out against OKC. They would have lead at the half by 2 54-52 if not for a three pointer by Sefolosha at the buzzer which swung the momentum in favor of OKC 55-54.
Then came the third where the Blazers scored all of SEVEN points and that was the difference. Otherwise, Portland went neck and neck or outplayed OKC for 3 quarters. That's saying a lot against the best team in the West fighting for a number 1 seed against one of the worst teams in the West right now. The game before that they went neck and neck with the Lakers. The game before that they came roaring back against the Mavs. There is FIGHT here.
That is why, even if they have such a quarter tonight against Denver (and I don't think they won't), we can guard against it.
The line is +14.5 and we are going to take this line to where no bookie will ever allow you to take it, to +19.0 teasing it the standard 4.5.
I know you don't like teases, and I know you don't play them but they are useful in some circumstances.
One of the circumstances is when you are getting almost a quarters worth of points. Essentially we are giving Portland FIVE quarters to beat Denver who will only play 4 in the real game. THAT is a worthwhile play even in as tough a place to play as Denver is who rightfully are fighting for playoff position as well. 19 points is 19 points period. You take it an run if you can move a line to 19.
One problem? What's the other game.
Take the Lakers +4.5 and bring the line to +9.
Why? We all know teams get an initial motivational bump when their star leaves. It is strongest in the very next game where all role players and secondary stars step up. Your secondary stars are very powerful on this team in the likes of Gasol and Howard. I wish Nash was a go because he could find rhythm without Kobe but we'll have to live with Blake. We're gonna hope to see World Peace step in today and give us the 20 point performances we saw in Mid-March. Not a bad role player to have on your side no matter what you think of him.
The other reason why I LOVE the 9 here is because the last time Kobe went down they played Indiana on March 15th. NO ONE thought they'd be able to survive without Kobe and they won in a very tough place to play in Indiana 99-93 and Metta gave them 19 big ones.
So we are getting NINE in a spot where you will have a motivated Laker team, running through the bigs, who, while they have struggled as a team are two great players, and a team that is fighting for its playoff life and will fight tooth and nail to win this or keep this close making nine a gargantuan spread.
So we get an extra quarter in one game with a team that fought tooth and nail with the best outside of one quarter (now we cover that quarter if it happens again) and 9 in spot with a team in a Must Win at home.
So if you're willing to make an unconventional bet, I think it's there for the taking
THE BET (tease at +4.5 -110 juice):
BLAZERS +19.0 over NUGGETS
AND
LAKERS +9 over SPURS
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