Mak's BACK With A New York State Of Mind

Fellas!!!!!!! My sincere apologies for my prolonged absence.  You guys have always known my priority is the guaranteed green rather than the gambled green.  I did state 2 weeks ago that I would be able to post consistently however an opportunity arose that I just could not pass up.  Business will always come before ball...but it’s never far behind.  Back in town now and ready to provide my thoughts consistently for as long as I can.  Please note, although I sometimes do not have the time to share thoughts, I am always on the NBA grind, always aware of progressions and am always betting.  The past 2 weeks have been outstanding, the record is not even believable so I am not going to post, nor do I find any use in posting the record when I didn’t assist anyone in winning money with me, nevertheless I am very proud of the run.  I do however think it is vital for my readers to know who I have been backing and fading these past 2 weeks so over the next few days my write-ups will include past selections for specific teams.  In any case, I am very glad to be back and really believe I have a good feel for the season as it stands right now.  Rosters are starting to become a lot more transparent and it is becoming easier for me to read into situations and matchups.  Despite the lines being as sharp as they have been all year, I still think we are in prime position to make mid-season money in the NBA.  Looking forward to sharing thoughts with you guys this week. As always gents, I wish you the best of luck.  Peace - - - MAK

With the wear and tear of the mid-season NBA grind I have switched up my betting style a bit, depending on the hustle of my day, I get time to cap early morning but am busy most of the day.  As we evolve into the latter part of the season, injuries become a huge factor.  Teams tend to like the “game-time decision” for their players.  So what I have been doing is placing about 50% of my wagers early morning and completing a final card around 6:30 eastern time.  This has been working very well for me, so being superstitious I want to continue with this for a while, therefore I will provide my thoughts early for all to analyze and will return in the late evening each day with a final card.  Barring any unforeseen gigantic losses over the next week, this will be the most profit I have shown in an NBA season prior to the all-star break, I want to keep that rolling, as stated I won’t state the un-posted record since it is meaningless to all of you, I am however very proud of it.  I did leave covers on a 2 day 5-0 run banking 18 units so we will take it from there.  Tonight there are plenty of games I like, want to keep the card to 3 max but it may be difficult on a tempting slate.  I will be out for most of the day but will return before 7:00 and post a final card as well as reply to your posts.  Good luck fellas.

ORLANDO MAGIC @ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

It may be surprising for many of those who know me to hear, but over the course of the season I like developing little systems within NBA situations.  I have done it for about 2 years now.  I don't really believe in "systems" per say, I trust my gut and knowledge over any system, any person, anywhere, anytime.  Nevertheless, I like tweaking numbers and situational stats in order to create my own system.  The best part of a good system is the simplicity.  My systems usually involve a single team, a style of play or a group of teams and I like to adhere to specific game situations as well.  The Orlando Magic fall within a system that has been very successful as of late for me.  I have cashed consistently backing the Orlando Magic against weak perimeter defending teams.  That is it basically, you play for the Magic when they face a low efficiency perimeter defending team (below 15 in opponents 3pt makes and percentage).  You can also play against the Magic when they face a team that plays lock down defense above the arc.  I have records dating back to when I started this system if anyone is interested.  See, the Orlando Magic are a very rare team.  They have a monster for a 5 man, so they can gamble by placing shooters around him and hoping he gets doubled team.  Everyone on Orlando can shoot the 3.  They shoot even more than New York which is crazy.  28 three point attempts a game in unheard of in modern NBA history....by the end of the season you may even see Orlando get to 30 a game.  They live and die by the 3 point shot.  This “system” is not really a system because I do have to at least lean the correct way for it to be a play in my books.  Nevertheless, the Magic are as transparent a roster as any in the NBA, they have a short 8 man rotation (With Bass and emergence of Clark maybe 9) and 2 weapons.  Dwight and the long range bomb.  Tonight they face a top 10 perimeter defending team.  The best bench in the NBA and a confident crew ready to exact revenge at home.  Philly owned the Magic in both their games this season, their loss to Orlando in Amway Center was a complete fluke.  Two 4 point plays were the deciding factor in a 1 point overtime loss.  They controlled all game and lost it with a lack of focus and a little luck.  That loss still burns Philly and they want it back.  Andre the Iggy one has been a magician with the basketball as of late.  He is actually the player controlling the tempo and team.  He is an amazing fast-break facilitator (except that missed dunk last night), Iggy is averaging a ridiculous 10 assists in his last 3 including a 16 assist performance.  Doug Collins has this young team playing poised, precise basketball.  Elton is the heart and hustle and has impressed me so much this year.  Williams, Young and Evan are the most dangerous 2nd unit tandem in the NBA even more efficient than Terry, J.J and Marion in Dallas.  The 76ers are for real and I will no longer sleep on the sexy sixers.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ TORONTO RAPTORS

I will most likely go for the Spurs winning by 6 or more points in this one, however I am more scared than I really should be.  Historically, Toronto always seems to beat the Spurs when they have absolutely no reason to.  The Spurs have not won in T.O since 08 but I find myself only capping “historically” when it comes to the Raps and no other teams.  I really don’t think “history” should be prevalent in capping as much as it is. Rosters differ drastically from year to year and thus past match-ups spanning more than a year have little to no meaning to me.  This is a lean I would be more than happy to be incorrect on.  I just do not see the Raps hanging here.  The Spurs are the best team in basketball...when will people stop doubting that?  I know when....when San An beats the Lakers in a 7 game series.  That is when.  Until then, doubt the grumpy old men, keep doubting them for all I care.  They alone have increased my bankroll about 15% this year.  I give so much credit to Pop, getting blown out of the playoffs by a fast break team was a wake up call.  The Suns owned them, their style of play was infectious to Pop and he decided to implement the motion offense.  He changed a decade long system, he flushed his 4 rings down the toilet and started off clean, much respect to him and the coaching staff as well as the organization for having the balls to admit they needed to change their mentality.  With Matt Bonner returning, this team improves offensively.  He will return to Toronto and splash down at least 3 triples today.  Antonio and Timmy will dominate against Amir and Ed Davis.  I love what Amir has been doing, the heart he has shown is amazing.  Signs a major deal, and still plays with back pain and numerous other injuries, has played every game for the Raps and is one of their highest paid players.  Props to Amir Johnson.  Blair is taking his game to a new level, his ability to finish around the basket, his quick hands and rebounding ability make him as important on this roster as Timmy....yes I said it.  Don’t underestimate the Spurs under-sized center.  Jefferson should outperform Weems offensively, the 4 horsemen Manu, Tony, Gary and George will handle the 3 Raptor guards Jose (who is awful on 0 days rest), DeRozan and Barbossa (rusty, 2nd game back after a long injury) and Trey Johnson (who?...Trey Johnson bitch)  Raps have only won 9 at home...Spurs have only lost 8 all season...it’s not going to happen for my boys despite a good fight in their first meeting.  San An will sweep the season series for the first time since 08.

DETROIT PISTONS @ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

I will probably leave this game out of my card tonight.  I do feel like some of you will read this game wrong but there are too many situational and motivation factors that could sway the outcome of this game.  I will 100% be rooting for the Cavs, I really do not want the NBA in the record books as the worst professional sports team.  The Cavs are closing in on the record for most consecutive losses by a professional sports organization.  The worst part about all this is this just makes the egotistical twit that is LeBron James look even more like a greek god.  What has happened to the Cavs is just sad.  This game is more mental than anything, the Cavs have enough talent on their team to win 1 out of 25 games.  They just allowed their heads to get into the game on several occasions.  As much as all of us want the Cavs to win, we want to believe they will be pumped to end the streak at home vs a mediocre eastern team...they know this is their chance...but what everyone seems to forget is their opponents...do you really think Detroit wants to be the team that allows the Cavs to break this ridiculous streak?  First off, the Pistons are officially off my blacklist.  They were removed last week due to a consistent rotation for more than 4 games.  Their line up is finally transparent after half a season.  I like Monroe and Ben starting together.  Stuck is a cancer on this team and if he regains his starting point guard role I may decide to put them back on the blacklist.  Gordon, T Mac and Prince will fight in the starting 5 but it will be hard against an underrated starting 5 on Cleveland of Sessions (who has been playing great) Anthony Parker (who missed a majority of this losing streak), Antawn, Eyenga and Hickson (improving leaps and bounds in the glass).  The key to this game is the Detroit bench.  Depth is evident as a 2nd unit with Daye, Stuck, Hamilton (maybe), Bynum and Charlie.  Cleveland has a non-existent 2nd unit with Boobie, Moon and Hollins.  Motivation is key, if the Cavs come out strong and feed of the energy of their crowd, it could carry them throughout the 48 minutes.  Boobie will have to contribute a few threes off the bench to have any chance.  Be careful on this one, motivation for BOTH sides in my opinion.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ WASHINGTON WIZARDS

It is FINALLY time to fear the deer.  It’s about god damn time.  Both Memphis and Milwaukee were big disappointments for me this season, but I think now is the time both these teams step up and make a run in their respective conferences and make my pre-season previews look good.  The Bucks are finally healthy and have a full roster, they have a motivator and a leader on their team.  Andrew Bogut called himself and his team out.  He stated that they are half way through the season and it was unacceptable for them to still be missing defensive assignments and he was correct.  He called out his team and Bucks owner followed by visiting the team and telling them that now is the time to step it up.  The Bucks ARE a playoff team, their defense will get them there.  The Bucks have had one of the best front-courts in the NBA in the last 5-10 games.  Corey, Ersan and Andrew have been dominating.  With Mbah a Moute (a favourite of Kap, Mak and all who know what basketball really is) the prince coming off a 14 rebound performance will come to play in the nations capital tonight.  I love the Bucks forwards, always have.  Even rookie Larry Saunders has skill but doesn’t get the time.  It has always been the guard rotation that concerned me, but now with a healthy Salmons, Jennings and Delfino....this team is stacked!  Bucks only had Doolings, Boykins and CDR against Washington and still beat them.  The funny thing is, the Bucks are so much better and healthier now that Keyon,Earl and CDR are not even in the rotation now!  This meeting the Bucks arrive with more arsenal, more confidence and a lot more overall skill.  Expect a short road spread, expect a road win, accept the fear.

CHICAGO BULLS @ UTAH JAZZ

Another game I may keep off the card, but it interests me greatly.  The return of Booz to the city of Mormons...let’s hope for a warm religious welcome.  A very rare loss on my two week streak was Chicago at Portland.  I really thought the Bulls would come out and blank the Blazers.  Overall I thought the Bulls played a decent game, they seem to lose focus offensively at times, too much dribbling with no set runs, screen or dips.  Just D.Rose waiting for movement from Korver or Deng which sometimes never arrives forcing him into a desperation play late in the shot clock.  It took a career game from Big L to end a nice flawless streak I had going....and when I say nice....I mean NICCE.  He was outstanding and once Roy and Camby return, Portland will make a deep push.  Tonight this game will come down to 2 things.  First, the starting 5 of Chicago being able to keep up with a surging 5 on Utah.  Second, the ability of the scarce Utah bench to keep up with a talented, motivated 2nd unit on Chicago.  Rose, Deng and Booz do not have to out-produce D Will, Bell, AK47, Milsap and Jefferson.  They just have to keep it close.  Because Korver, Brewer & Gibson will outperform the Utah bench with ease.  I would have leaned Chicago here in a heartbeat, I love this team and once Noah returns they will bring us a lot of money early on.  But I can’t back them here despite leaning heavily towards them.  Utah is just too dangerous at home and have finally found some consistent offensive flow.  Raja Bell who has been pulling a "where is Waldo" flow this season has started to heat up, finding ways to score.  This team desperately needed it, Jefferson is playing out of his mind as is Milsap and DMW could win the game by himself tonight.  Despite not having a wager on this game, it will be my game of the night and the one I look forward to the most.  Should be a great one, two of the best PG’s in the business, I love this game.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS @ NEW YORK KNICKS

Mak has a New York State of mind.  I like the Knicks at 6. Clippers off a back to back, played well in Orlando.  Kept it close for much of the game, but it is clearly evident that without Eric Gordon this is just not the same team.  Randy Foye cannot create off the dribble the same way Eric can, he doesn’t have the shot that Gordon has.  Foye doesn’t spread the floor or attract defense.  It is just not the same team without the world champion Eric Gordon.  I have noticed teams begin to understand how to contain Blake offensively.  Constant doubles, pressure above the chin and moving him away from the block.  Tonight TImofey Mozgov and Amar’e will try to contain him, but since the Knicks try not to foul, look for easy baskets and a big night for Blake at MSG.  I cannot express how good I think Blake is.  He is playing on pure raw skill right now, once he learns the intricacies of the game he will be unstoppable. I do however think the 8 man rotation of NYC will be too much for LAC to handle.  They will not be able to keep up offensively.  Clippers are the 2nd worst perimeter defending team in the NBA allowing teams to hit about 8 3’s a game on them.  New York is #2 in the NBA hitting about 9 a game.  They hit them at a high percentage at top 10 in the NBA.  The key to this game will be fouls and free throws.  Both New York and the Clipps are top 10 in the NBA at free throw attempts, these two teams like to get up and down the floor and are aggressive taking it to the rim and getting to the line.  New York however is good at converting those “free” opportunities and sit at #3 in the NBA at FT%.  The Clipps on the other hand do not take advantage of their opportunities and sit dead last in the NBA at FT%.  That differential, combined with the 3 point disparity could make this a fairly large wager for me.  Knicks are 3-1 ATS when facing a team on 0 days rest.  In their first meeting this season Blake and Eric combined for almost 70 points, Felton, Wilson and Landry shot a horrific 10-29 from the field yet the Knicks still won by nine in Los Angeles.  I like Mozgov down low, he changes shots in the lane and gives NYC an actual post presence who can block a few shots.  Turiaf didn’t do that consistently...neither did Amar’e really.  Landry coming off one of his best games as a pro should do well vs a smaller Foye.  Amar’e off a 40+ night will want to go toe-to-toe with Blake.  Expect a big night from Stat. Galo and Wilson are the x-factors to the game, their offense should be the difference maker.  If Tony Douglas and Shawne Williams provide some offense, this one will be a double digit Knicks win.  Mak’s back with a New York state of mind state of mind.

Mak

Mak - great writeups , i think this is a very tough spot for the Cavs tonight. The other night in Dallas the Cavs put up a tremendous fight. They played well in the 1st qtr , got down in the 2nd (bench?) , battled hard to stay in the game in the 3rd , and then made multiple runs at the Mavs to lose by 3 in the end but cover the number with ease.

The pistons hung with the spurs last night for most of the game. I don't see them coming out flat tonight off of that loss

look at bynum said after the loss

Detroit will play at Cleveland on Wednesday night, with the Cavaliers trying to snap their record streak of 25 losses. Bynum was asked afterward about the possibility of being the team that finally loses to Cleveland. "We won't be," he said. "We'll be ready. That's why we get paid."

 

To me mak the cavs will win a game soon , i , just think that the effort in dallas took a lot out of them and they just may not be able to give that max effort tonight that they need to beat any team in the nba .

awesomeness  knicks & bucks 

NYN like it and will put a unit on the Bucks

The Greatest

the best capper alive.....since the best capper retired.

what about OVER 215 CLIPPERS/KNICKS game....do you think it will be up and down shooutout?

That is a high total but I see this being very high pace.

Your commitment to detail is unmatched. 

Dam..I liked the raptors tonite.

nice Mak 

i really do like the bucks

2 pac

love waking up to a thread like this

Is it just me Mak, or do the Wizards have the lowest collective basketball IQ of any team in the league?

.gl tonight Mak.....Bucks big for me

So, are you on...

Philly
San Anotonio
Milwaukee
New York Knicks
???

good luck