Mak's Mercenary Monday

Sup fellas, early start for me today as I may not get to post the rest of my card until 8:30pm Eastern time as I need to take care of some business out of town.  This is one early evening game I like.  So gents, on December 7th, I was 35.5 units down in the straight wager category and scratching my head wondering what I was doing wrong this year, instead of second guessing myself, I tried to remind myself that we are about 20% into the season and I have yet to have a losing year since I began doing this.  The last 8 days have brought my confidence back, maybe not that Mak swagger yet, but confidence for sure.  SW = 25-12 +40.50 units in my last 37.  Back in the green and I feel like I have a fresh start, let's get it going fellas.  As always, wish you the best of luck in all your wagers, peace out - - - MAK
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Mak's 2014/2015 NBA Season Investments

SW = 63-58 (+5.00)
PP = 66-39 (+19.25)
2H = 21-10 (+8.50)
YTD = 150-107 (+32.75)

Juice Approximation Averages

SW = 12.25%
PP = 13.05%
2H = 10.20%
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ORLANDO MAGIC + 8.0 (-110) - - - Yes I am well aware that I am 1-4 betting against my boys and 2-0 betting on my boys.  But here's the thing, this is not a bet against the East leading Toronto Raptors.  This is a bet for the undervalued Orlando Magic.  I love this team so much.  I think they have some of the best young talent in the NBA and if they can manage to sign Tobias Harris long-term and keep the core of Oladipo, Vucevic, Fournier and Tobias, develop Payton and add some young talent, this team is going to be playing playoff basketball very soon.  Tonight they face a gritty Toronto team who has been clawing their way to victories without their best player.  They lead the East and have made your boy Mak very proud.  Best case scenario is a win for my boys and a cover, but I actually would not be surprised if the Orlando Magic win this game.  I called the Bucks win over the Clipps on the same night I called the Magic to upset the Hawks, and I may decide to play the ML if the price is right.  Oladipo is key tonight.  Victor is a very very underrated defender. He is a 6'4 shooting guard playing the point and has the quickness and lateral movement necessary to lock down Lowry tonight.  He has 4 inches on the Philly native and after an almost 40 minute OT game where he hit his head hard on the floor after a foul by Amare, I suspect Lowry to be bruised internally (fatigue) and externally.  Evan lost his game a little after the ankle injury, but suddenly he has found it again.  He leads the NBA in consecutive 3 point shots made, he is a 6'6 quick guard who will smoke Landry Fields.  Tobias Harris could quite possibly be my favorite NBA player right now, put him on any top tier playoff team, and in my opinion, they instantly become title contenders, that is how good I think this kid is.  He is 6'9 240 going against a scronny 6'7 Ross and will lock him down with strong D, and hinder him useless where Ross excels the most which is on defense.  Big Val has been playing out of his mind with defensive perfection and rebounding grit.  But Vucevic is too skilled and too slick to be stopped on offense, he is also one of the best rebounding big men in the NBA right now.  Jacque Vaughn's love affair with Wille Green has finally come to an end, I am so very pleased.  Green has the worst +/- in the NBA and is a useless rotation player and finally got his first DNP of the season.  Now the bench rotation for Orlando boasts two serviceable bigs in O'Quinn and Dedmon, Ben Gordon who always seems to play well against Toronto and a defensive specialist with a lot of upside who reminds me a lot of his namesake Gary Payton.  He will lock down Sweet Lou tonight.  I do think the Raps bench will outscore the Magic bench by a mile, but I see heavy minutes for the Orlando starters so I am hoping (for my bankroll's sake, not my heart's sake) that it will not make a difference.  Orlando has lost both meetings to Toronto and I suspect the Magic to sprinkle some dust and exact some revenge tonight.
3 UNITS ELFRID "IF THE GLOVE FITS" PAYTON - - -   

Mak do you think Orlando has playoff aspirations this year?Because i feel like they have no motivation to win.Raptors seem to have more heart on the court.

nice write up!!! 

I'm on ORL tonight, too.  I also took them (+4) the first half.

Mak, totally agreed. I took them +8.5 as soon as it came out. So glad to see the line dropped to 7 now. Do you have any clue why the line dropped?

Glad to see the comeback first hand Mak.  vucevic is one of my favorite young under the radar players in the league.  Agree that the Magic are improving quickly.  Not thrilled that I missed the best number here, but might go ahead at 7.5 anyway.

ADDED WAGERS

The Charlotte Hornets are not as bad as the public perceives, they actually have a decent 10 man rotation.  MKG is pivotal to the success of this team, he will regain his starting position tonight sending Henderson to the bench.  He will have the job of guarding the best player on the planet.  The Lance trade rumors will either motivate Stephenson, or deflate him.  I doubt he guards LBJ at all today, am hoping he steps up his game.  Al Jefferson and Cody Zeller match up with Love and the Brazilian wild man and their defense will be key to keeping this game within single digits.  Walker and Lance must match up point-for-point with Irving and Marion and I actually think they do.  It comes down to bench play and perimeter defense tonight to stay within the number.  Cleveland will want to right the ship so to speak after some tough losses but Charlotte will also be poised to come out with their best effort after an embarrassing loss to the Nets.

Everyone who reads my writeups knows how much I love the Hawks.  Coach Bud has set this team up to win games...period.  But I love the Bulls and coach Tib even more.  If Noah plays, lovely.  If not, I still suspect the 8 man Bulls rotation to get it done vs a spectacular Hawks team.  I would have stayed away from this game if the Bulls were favored.  Them opening up as dogs to me is incorrect and the Bulls will show it tonight, this is strictly a value bet on the ML at +110.  I think the Bulls should be favored in this game therefore it's a must play for me even though I would have preferred to sit this one out.  Bulls win this game in front of a scarce Monday night crows in Atlanta.

CHARLOTTE HORNETS + 10.5 (-113) - - - - 2 UNITS
CHICAGO BULLS +2.5 (-114) - - - 2 UNITS

That will actually be it for me tonight guys, got a big business meeting today that will take up most of my time. 

MGeez - - - Yea of course they have aspirations of success and playing pas the regular season is a goal for them, but it is for every team in the East with the exception of Philly.  I don't agree with the motivation angle you have but 100% agree on your assessment of the Raps.

Nick - - - Always appreciate hearing that.  Thanks.

DAB - - - Man who is that in your avatar! It is really bugging me so much.  Mak is supposed to know every NBA player past and present.  Who is that!!

Milky - - - That's a nice number Milky, it's what I wanted but I had a feeling the line would drop.  My guess would be that the line moved because of sharp action on Orlando, no other reason seems plausible/  GL tonight Milky.

Johnny - - - Man, I don't like the fact that you don't like your boys to keep it close.  I really like them to start getting it done and keep this one close.  I appreciate the kind words buddy,

Lou - - - Always a pleasure sir.

mak my man keep doin ur thing

Against ya brother...but good luck

I never bet raptors, but totally agree with what you are saying.  I hope they walk away with it, but just can't see it happening.

Mak, I agree that the bugs are undervalued pretty much universally at this point, but just don't want to try this spot vs the Cavs so I will pass.

jiri welsch!    And Big country in back to back posts!  

With you on all except the Hornets. Im still not a fan of their offense. Cavs will blow them out. Kemba Walker is an average PG at most. A couple of game winners from him doesn't negate the fact that he shoots bricks most of the time. A big game from him and Al Jefferson are the only reasons that would keep them close with the Cavs in this game. Cavs would bounce back big. Regardless, i hope we would be both on the green side by the end of the day.

BOL

HardCheddah -

Thanks for the response beardy, I too share a love for data mining (if that wasn't already obvious), but I agree this is not a business where you want to blindly follow the data, a lot more comes into play. My real reason for posting was just to get all the people playing Orlando simply based on a fade of the Raptors fatigue to see how well this team has performed with said "fatigue". 

blindly tailing you tonight, super busy day for me,good luck to us mak!!!

ADDED WAGERS

M.CARTER-WILLIAMS OVER 14.5 AST + REB (-125)
0.75 UNITS - - -

T.HARRIS OVER 17.5 PTS (-115)
0.75 UNITS - - -

V.OLADIPO OVER 15.5 PTS (-120)
0.75 UNITS - - -

K.LOWRY UNDER 22.5 POINTS (-115)
0.50 UNITS - - -

Sorry guys short on time, thanks for your posts.  Shout out to HardCheddah for awesome data mining.  Anytime someone wants to put that kind of info on my thread, I welcome it with open arms.  Great stuff.