Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Mak, just posted this data (see below) on another thread. What's your take on this game from a matchups standpoint? The Hawks play like the Spurs (a team that has given Memphis a lot of trouble over the years). The difference is that SA has the bigs (Splitter, Duncan, etc) to bother Memphis down low, especially Randolph, who has a hard time getting his game untracked. Atlanta does not pose that problem.
Mak, just posted this data (see below) on another thread. What's your take on this game from a matchups standpoint? The Hawks play like the Spurs (a team that has given Memphis a lot of trouble over the years). The difference is that SA has the bigs (Splitter, Duncan, etc) to bother Memphis down low, especially Randolph, who has a hard time getting his game untracked. Atlanta does not pose that problem.
"Memphis is 35-18 ATS in their last 53 against teams who are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game, 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 home games against a team with a winning road record and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss.
Adding to this is a strong system. Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss as a favorite, who have won 60% to 75% of their games and are playing a team with a winning record, are 82-41 ATS since 1996. That's a 67% system in favor of the Grizzlies."
It's such a difficult game to cap. I went through it so many times, back and fourth, it was quite annoying. I love Korver and Carrol in this game. Carrol will lock down Green and Korver is too big for anyone to guard. Not Allen or Lee will do anything on him. But as you said, no bigs to stop Z-Bo. And Gasol will lock down Horford. The bench is the key, if Beno can somehow match Dennis, Allen match Baze and the Memphis 2nd unit bigs can negate the long range offense of Scott and Pero, then this is the Grizzlies game to win at home. Gun to my head I would say the Griz win at home, but I am done going against the Atlanta Hawks and I really would not touch this game. Good luck man.
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