Mak's TNT Thursday

Hey fellas, 3-2 night on Wednesday but wasn’t able to attain any profit.  I don’t mind breaking even but was off by only one point on both Boston and the Warriors spreads.  Would have been a flawless victory if not for a bucket.  Was very surprised to see Boston struggle, Warriors didn’t deserve the cover.  Indiana played well, better than I thought they would for sure.  A horrible end to the game for Memphis once again, they seem to always have these debacles to end games.  Lapse in judgment and mental focus, this team needs to make a splash and move Mayo or else they are not getting into the playoffs this year.  Clippers continue to dominate, Baron Davis doesn’t get enough credit.  This is a guy we have hounded for 2 years, for good reason as well.  He is playing well over this stretch and deserves kudos.  Philly and Orlando was a crazy game, don’t think I have ever seen two 4 point plays like that in the NBA ever, especially two deciding plays in clutch during the 4th Q and overtime. Feel sorry for Cleveland fanst, from best to worst. Grant Hill continues to amaze me, don’t think I have ever seen someone his age perform at his level except for MJ at times with the Wiz.  Grant “Hot Tub Time Machine” Hill is Mak’s hero.

TNT Thursdays are always bare and brim.  I do not like to partake in too much action on TNT Thursdays.  I usually try to focus in on one game and concentrate on that.  I am doing that tonight.  However, a word of warning, I usually try to focus in on the game I have a better feel for.  Usually on Thursdays there is at least one team I have been successful calling, today it is the Clippers and Cats but I have no interest whatsoever in those games.  Instead I am going with two teams that I have not had a good read on recently.  Keeping units low, hoping for the best.  As always, good luck fellas.  Peace - - - MAK

DALLAS MAVERICKS @ CHICAGO BULLS

PICK: DALLAS MAVERICKS + 4 (-115) - - - 2 UNITS

PICK: TYSON CHANDLER OVER 8.5 REB (-120) - - - 1 UNIT

PICK TAJ GIBSON OVER 7.5 REB (-120) - - - 1 UNIT

I am quite sure you all know the situational angles of the game by now but to reiterate; teams that beat the champs are 10-2 in their following games.  However, that stat is really negated when realizing the situation dilemma that Dallas is in right now.  Off a grueling, mentally exhausting road trip, they came back to Dallas, rested for a day and allowed adrenaline to carry them over a win at home vs the Los Angeles Lakers.  It was a gutsy performance, but on a back to back it will be very difficult for this team to find their legs.  Adrenaline can easily carry a team in the first of a back to back, but it will not on the second night of a back to back in an even deeper situational hole with their recent schedule.  As stated I am sure everyone is aware of these situational aspects, let me break down the matchup aspect of this game.  This is where Dallas holds an advantage.  First off, no one realizes what Coach Charlise subtly did last night.  By inserting Sasha Pavlovic into the starting line-up and continuing to go with Stevenson as a starter, he created the same dynamic Dallas had when they were dominating the Western Conference prior to Caron’s injury.  They have Jason “Cyclopes” Kidd as the PG, Dirk as the starting PF and Tyson as the their C.  Deshawn stays put due to his ability to go out and guard the best 2 or 3 man on the opposing team, he also spreads the floor with his range although that has not been evident over his last few games.  Sasha Pavlovic is no Caron Butler, he can't break guys off the dribble but has a shot and an ability to put it on the floor.  Sasha has been in the NBA finals, playoff games and countless other big games.  He has played alongside a star and knows what his role is.  Wait for doubles, screen and pop and take the open shot.  He will have his 10 day extended and should start again today.  As long as he doesn’t force his game, he will be an asset to the Mavs.  Now forget Sasha and Stevenson, the big change this creates is Dallas once again becomes one of the most powerful 2nd unit teams in the association.  Shawn Marion and the Jet come off the bench as a potent scoring duo.  Haywood and J.J round out the 9 man rotation.  In their last 3 games this bench is scoring 43 points per game good for #2 in the NBA.  I do understand the situational aspects do favor the Chicago Bulls, the Bulls could easily take this game by 5 or more points, I have just always been someone to hold rotational match-ups and my personal instinct over any situational statistic.  I also realize that my instinct was wrong in backing them against the Pistons, I thought their motivation would spurt in that road game, I was a game too early.  As long as Dallas plays with some heart unlike in their last road game, than they should compete and may even win this game straight up.

Playing props consistently is a recipe for disaster.  I don’t think it is a good idea and despite having a prop play now for the last 3 nights, I haven’t played that many this year.  9-2 on props this year, 5-1 posted, have hit my last 4.  These two rebound props are enticing due to the fact that each player should own the glass against their respective opponents.  Tyson scared me yesterday as it was reported he would not return to the game in the 2nd half, he picked up his sack like a man and played.  He only ended up netting 28 minutes and still grabbed 10 boards to cash the prop with ease.  Same situation tonight, Tyson is the only man on that first unit that will rebound missed shots, everyone else will look towards transition.  He will have plenty of missed shot opportunities if Dallas implements their hefty 2-3 zone defense and force guys like Rose, Bogans and Deng to shoot the three ball.  The last time Taj Gibson met the Mavs it was a brisk November evening...he decided to grab 18 rebounds....I’ll take a gamble he dominates Disco on the glass.  In the last 80 minutes of basketball, Dirk has boxed out a total of 2 men.  I am literally not even exaggerating, watch his last two games and see for yourself.  Taj is in beast mode with 12 blocks in his last 2 games...yes I said 12.  He will leap over the German tonight and grab at least 8 boards.

GL mak

good luck mak  and thnx for the writeup.

GL Mak

Thanks Ace, awesome avatar.  My favorite X-Men.  GL to you as well tonight.

Always appreciate your appreciation tonydan.

GL Dimeplayer.

NEVER underestimate a german!!
Why do you think is paying props a recipe for disaster? i consider them my strongest type of wagers for some years now. especially when it comes to rebounding, analyses of boxing out and matchups is often "easy". Already locked in those rebounding beasts!
For me, these mavs are not yet strong enough. Dirk is so much a factor, the bulls will know this after the past few games. Dunno if he is strong enough already... still looking for more reasons to pull the trigger. Good luck with your wagers, a profitable night is due my friend!

took the spurs in a teaser from you yesterday but added the nets instead of the celts as i believe the line was way to high and that the celts could of even lost outright. some how i was right.
love dallas to start rolling again.

I prefer big money fantasy leagues over daily props.  I am in some high-roller NBA fantasy leagues and feel there is a better chance to make money in those as yearly investments than daily props.  To each his own buddy.

I have a question for you then guru of rebounding props.  Am looking very closely at Dirk under 8.5 boards @ -150 or Dirk under 7.5 board -110.  Do you this Disco can grab anything over Taj, Tyson, Kurt and Asik?  I don't.

BOL Mak.  Our Raps screwed me large yday.. don't know why I took them +13 2nd half, was thinking they were going to pull off another Texas upset.. and well, Im sure you know the rest. Riding with Mavs also, but the ML.

At this stage, after his injury, i would not put a bet on him. maybe he is rebuilding very fast, as he was often enough in his career. but on the other hand he might have trouble with his knee. the mavs would not risk to lose him for more games and take him out. so... do not!

GL.

Thanks Mak.......great write-up as always but on this occasion I'm on the other side due to that gruelling schedule that you pointed out.

What up Mak, good luck today like the mavs today

Understand this is your main pic for the day, do you have a lean or feeling on the clipper game, thanks for all you insight

Mak, with ya on Dallas. Goodness gracious, lots of chicago backers tonight....

Mak,