Mak's Tumultuous Thursday

Back to basics.  Daily threads are back on, due to the time difference here in Kenya I will most likely find the time at night to provide insight on games so look for my threads around late afternoon to early evening eastern standard time.  Will continue to post the link to season previews and projections for a while, will also be posting the team previews and projections on the daily threads when I have only 1 or 2 plays like today.  Hopefully it will give you a better grasp on where I stand on each team and if you have similar thoughts or if they differ from mine.  So far I am sticking to my initial gut, but slowly I see some of my initial opinions about certain teams, players, rotations and systems are starting to change.  As the season progresses this is bound to happen.  The one thing coaches are embedding in the minds of their players is that every game counts.  In a 66 game schedule it is imperative to understand that now more than ever, teams cannot take a night off, it is going to be a constant struggle to keep up with the rigors of a schedule like this and as hard as it is, players have to give 100% every night.  This is going to make it very difficult for us wagerers as the league has never been more competitive than it is today.  We just have to play smart, use proper money management and pick our spots.  Will have some time today to respond to any questions or concerns, as always gents I wish you the best of luck.

DALLAS MAVERICKS 2012 TEAM PREVIEW - - - I love the Mavericks, because of last year’s playoffs, they have officially surpassed the Toronto Raptors as the team that has made me the most money in my 5 years of gambling on this sport.  Believe it or not, I didn’t have them to win the Championship vs Miami, I actually refrained from betting on that series due to the fact that my heart said Mavs, and head said Heat.  I decided to enjoy the series without gambling a single cent.  It was two massive series wagers that accumulated the largest profit in my 5 year capping span.  The first was a fairly large wager on the Dallas Mavericks to upset the Los Angeles Lakers.  This was when they had not played a single game yet.  I also had two fairly substantial individual game wagers on game 1 and game 2, bet the spread and moneyline and cashed the Mavs as dogs on both occasions.  After the Mavs won the first two games of the series and demolished the Lakers home-court advantage I was absolutely astonished at the minimal juice that was required to cash in on the Mavs to win the series.  When I saw this line, I decided to go all in for the first time in my NBA betting career, I watched the first two games meticulously and convinced myself that there was no way the Lakers would win this series.  This was by far my largest wagers of all-time and I seriously doubt I would ever bet an amount like that again.  The Mavs will always be my love as they seriously stacked my bankroll beyond belief.  With the playoff winnings, I decided to purchase something very special for my father, starts with the letter B, ends with the letter W and has a M in the middle.  The Champs are back and in my opinion, better than ever.  I understand the loss of Tyson Chandler is a daunting task to overcome, but with some subtle additions in the front-court, combined with Rick Charlise’s ability to create something out of nothing, I am certain they will be just fine defensively.  The thing I love about Mark Cuban, is whatever players he lost, he has relentlessly tried to replace with better players or individuals with a similar makeup.  First the loss of Tyson, it will be very difficult to replace a player of his defensive stature, but Mavs have quite a few options at the 5 position.  Haywood will most likely get the go ahead at starting center.  I doubt Dirk starts at the 5.  Another player that should get a lot more run this year is Ian Mahinmi.  Mahinmi is an underrated big man in terms of his low block defense, he will never be able to provide much offensively, but at 6’11 and almost 240 now, he has enough mass to handle any body on the low post.  His size and strength combined with his decent vertical will make him an excellent option at the 5 position off the bench.  I love Cuban’s acquisition of young centre Brandan Wright.  He was a top 10 pick in 2007 and he has never really gotten a chance to shine in the NBA, his is a very lanky, long big man with extreme defensive potential.  Last year in very limited minutes he averaged close to 10 points and 4 boards a game swatting a shot on average.  His leaping ability is excellent and as a slimmer big man his quickness is an attractive attribute.  Unlike Ian Mahinmi, Wright is also a very talented offensive player with raw potential.  I think this is a very underrated acquisition for Dallas which will prove to be big this season.  The Mavs also lost point guard J.J Barea and 2 guard Stevenson.  Cuban immediately replaced these guys with Delonte West and Vince Carter.  West is the perfect backup to Jason Kidd, West has very high basketball IQ on the defensive end which is perfect for the Mavs.  Obviously Delonte doesn’t have the penetration game of Barea, but he has the ability to knock down the open shot and enough intelligence to create for himself and others on the offensive end.  Say what you want about Vince Carter, he used to be half-man, half-amazing....now he is just half-man, nevertheless you have to agree he is a better offensive option compared to Stevenson.  This is the first time Dallas will have a starting shooting guard that could actually go off for 20 on any given night, imagine how that would help Dirk and company.  J Kidd is an ageless wonder, he will continue to be one of the best generals in the game of basketball.  Dirk will probably not duplicate his dominance from last year’s playoffs, but he proved to be one of the best forwards in the game of basketball last year and now that he knows it himself, that confidence will only continue to grow and the success last year will drive him for more.  The Jet and Shawn Marion are the perfect complimentary role players on this team, the luxury of a championship team to actually state that Marion and Jet are most likely they 4th or 5th options on this team is just amazing.  The acquisition of Lamar Odom is really just astonishing.  Forget the fact that the Lakers traded him away for absolutely nothing, the fact alone that they traded him to the Mavericks is one of the strangest things I have ever seen in the NBA.  Without the acquisition of Lamar, I wouldn’t think that Dallas would have what it takes to duplicate their playoff success.  With him, I think they are the favourites to win the Western Conference.  With all these current and former all-stars on the team, you may find it strange for me to actually state that Rodrigue Beaubois is the key to the Mavs going back-to-back.  I really believe this deep down.  Roddy B is an exceptional talent, he was riddled with injuries last year but the Mavs have always had very high expectations, he may not be as good a playmaker as J.J Barea, but what J.J did for the Mavs in last year’s playoffs, Roddy can do this year.  He has immense offensive talent, and if used correctly, can be the subtle catalyst to the successful defense of the Mavs championship.  Mavs are as good as it gets in terms of a dominant roster, they have the best rotation in the West and maybe even the NBA, if healthy, I don’t see why they can’t do it again.

DALLAS MAVERICKS 2012 PROJECTIONS - - - Robert Horry once said, that winning one championship really means nothing, going back the next year and proving it wasn’t a fluke, that is what cements your stamp in the history books.  Kidd and Dirk want to do it again, Cuban wants to do it again, with the acquisition of Lamar Odom it is more than possible.  The Dallas Mavericks are the only team in the NBA that can legitimately say they are 12 deep.  With 66 games in 124 days, their depth and roster dominance can offset the fact that some of their stars are a bit older than say the Miami Heat or Chicago Bulls.  Youth and exuberance can only do so much for a team in the playoffs, it is veteran swagger and experience that will overcome post-season obstacles.  They may not have what it takes to ensure home-court advantage throughout the NBA playoffs, but this is a team that has dominated on the road the past 2 seasons, and I suspect they will do that again.  They have the tools to repeat, the aspirations to overcome, whether or not they can overcome and repeat during a shortened season will be very interesting to see.  Never underestimate the heart of a champion.  Mak won’t.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 2012 TEAM PREVIEW - - - Internal improvement has been the name of the game for the Oklahoma City Thunder year in and year out.  This team was created the correct way, from the ground up.  They lost their ass, and built it again with 3 lottery picks.  Westbrook, Durant and Harden who are now the core for this team.  Durant was a star the day he was born, it took Westbrook a year to find his niche in this league, it took James Harden quite some time but finally the third pick overall from Arizona State is officially an NBA stud.  He is the key to this teams continued success.  Obviously Durant is the Thunder, obviously with Westbrook running the show they would be in trouble, but their key to overcoming defeat is the progression of James Harden.  I was always high on this kid, called him the key in last year’s season preview, but it took an excellent playoff campaign to finally make this guy realize he is a star.  His confidence is at an all-time hig and he will carry that swagger with him all season long.  Together these 3 young stars will take Oklahoma City to glory.  Durant and Rose are my favourite young players in the NBA, they are the present and the future of this league, Durant’s humbleness amazes me, his maturity is beyond his years.  He is the most unique superstar we have in the NBA due to his length, wingspan, quickness and shooting ability.  He is a guard in a 7 foot body.  He will once again win the NBA scoring title and be in the running for MVP.  Westbrook needs to deflate his ego a bit, he needs to understand that this is and always will be Durant’s team.  If he can check his ego at the door before every practice and game, he could be one of the better point guards to ever play the game, lightning fast quickness, excellent offensive ability but poor decision making.  He inability to pass before he shoots is aggravating, but as he grows more mature, he will understand what needs to be done in order to win a title.  Kendrick Perkins is half the man he was and I mean that in a good way.  Losing that much weight proves his dedication to the game of basketball, he didn’t like what he saw in himself in the playoffs, and he changed.  He is a lot more nimble now, he is still strong enough to get bodies off the block but now he can actually improve on his very limited offensive game.  A 5 man doesn’t really need to be lighter to play better defense, but losing weight really helps a big man’s offensive game.  I could see Perk hitting double-digit scoring in numerous games which will really help lighten the load for Durant.  Serge Ibaka is my pick for defensive player of the year.  He has that starting 4 spot solidified as his own and he will not let it go.  He in an intricate part to the success of this team.  Thabo is Thabo, one of the best all-around wing defenders in the NBA, he will go out on any given night and stop the opposing teams best 2 guard or 3 man.  He is a difference maker when it comes to capping games and in my opinion this team’s secret weapon.  The bench of the Thunder is impressive as well.  Nick Collison is the type of guy all teams need off the bench.  He can play the 4 position and a little bit of the 5.  He is a gritty, tough defender.  His rebounding capability is above-par for his size, he is the perfect role player for this team.  By far one of the most under-rated defenders in the NBA.  Cook and Maynor are the guards off the bench, Maynor needs to keep his turnovers in check and concentrate on playmaking when replacing Westbrook, Cook needs to find a little more consistency in his shot.  One night he can go 5-5 from 3 point range, the next night he could easily go 1-7.  If he can find consistency in his offensive game, he can prove his worth and prove to be yet another essential player on this squad.  Cole Aldrich and Nazr Mohammed are the backup 5 men on this team.  Cole was the 11th overall pick in the 2010 draft and does have quite a bit of upside.  Nazr is a big body veteran presence who can fill the lane.  I love this team.  This team has youth, exuberance, sheer skill & limitless potential.  If they can somehow add one more piece to this puzzle; say a legit 5 man off the bench or a replacement 2 guard instead of Cook, they would easily be my pick to win the Western Conference.  They could still do it, but I suspect they will face a daunting challenge in the form of the defending champs.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 2012 PROJECTIONS - - - Very difficult to project their playoff success, this team has what it takes to succeed with ease in the regular season.  They have the youth factor combined with the luxury of a decent rotation.  They will be able to offset some of the fatigue factors a 66 game schedule can have.  They may take advantage of teams with age problems and a lack of roster depth.  I see them easily in the top 3 spots in the conference and home-court advantage for the first round.  In terms of playoffs success, it is difficult to ascertain at the moment.  I would want to say that this team is easily bound for the Western Conference Finals.  But I would really want to wait and see the progression of the Los Angeles Clippers as the season goes on.  I think OKC has what it takes to make this regular season their best ever, KD could win the MVP & Ibaka may win defensive player of the year.  The Thunder strike down vengeance on the NBA this year.

THURSDAY DECEMBER 29TH

DALLAS MAVERICKS @ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

PLAY: MAVERICKS + 6.0 -120

Despite Lamar Odom’s putrid play in the first two games of the season, I still believe he is the key to the Dallas Mavericks success this season.  Tonight I suspect he will want to be the difference maker and make up for his lack of service in Dallas’s first two games.  Tonight the Thunder will be on a 4 in 5 night situation and on a back to back facing a very hungry championship team on 2 days rest.  I doubt Dallas has any intention of starting off the season 0-3 as champions.  This is a very prideful team and most importantly a team that has tremendous swagger on the road.  In the past 2 seasons, the Mavs have been the best road team in the NBA.  There is no drop in intensity when this team is on the road, in fact their tenaciousness seems to increase on the road.  Much of their playoff success last season was due to the fact that they were able to overcome ruckus home crowds, keep their composure and execute on the road in big game situations.  I have no doubt that the real Dallas Mavericks will stand up tonight.  Westbrook was inept on the offensive end last night having his worst performance as an NBA player going 0-13 from the field.  He will want to create for himself and put up numbers tonight which in my opinion is yet another advantage for the Mavericks.  The more possessions away from Durant, the better for Dallas.  Thabo “the silent assassin” Sefolosha is the key to locking down premier two guards in the NBA, considering the Mavs don’t really have a premiere two guard who can win a game for them, this is also another advantage as it offsets the Thunder’s secret weapon.  The front court of Haywood, Dirk and Marion may struggle at times against Perk, Ibaka and Durant, but I suspect some of the Dallas role players to step up big tonight.  Jason Terry, Vince Carter, Delonte West, Lamar Odom & Beaubois all have to provide some offense in order for the Mavs to cover this spread.  Jason Kidd will have to limit his turnovers and be the catalyst for this team.  Defense will win this game and I suspect the team on 2 days rest to have the quicker legs on defense.  Dallas has won 4 straight games in Oklahoma City and I think they upset the Thunder tonight.

4 UNITS VINCE “HALF MAN, HALF-A-SEASON” CARTER - - -

LEANS

DENVER NUGGETS + 5.0 -110

ORLANDO MAGIC – 11.0 -110

good luck today mak. if you dont mind me asking, how many units is your starting bankroll? just so i get an idea of what percentage of your bankroll you are wagering with on each game, for instance today 4 units.  

I have 3 plays locked in...Denver +5.5, Orlando -11.5 and under Mavs 196.5.....Locked them in last night. Glad to see your leans and because I have action already on the Mavs game I will lay off the side. Could get an outright win by the Mavs here but I wanted to wait and see if they start playing a little better. BOL to your season sir and look forward to your posts daily

Another incredible work, I´m glad that you are back, I was really missing your insights ... many thanks buddy
Best of luck tonight

Good question and a fair one too.  I have actually never discussed my bankroll on Covers, I don't really believe in stating out in actuality monetary amounts, I just consider it bad luck, I know it's silly but in Africa there is some crazy shit that would make you a believer in the most phenomenal things, even skeptics like myself.  Witchcraft and all that craziness is quite prevalent.  One thing people believe in is the evil eye, an envious thought or feeling can bring you bad luck and misfortune. 

Nevertheless, I think it is fair I divulge the info to help covers brothers decipher the type of money management I am using.  So I really hope you are a mathematician because I don't plan on using any monetary amount to explain my bankroll, but it will be easy enough for anyone to understand.

One unit for me is not a g note, it is a hundo (simple enough slang I hope), my initial 7 unit bet on the Clippers on opening night was 1% of my initial bankroll.  Now that is my initial bankroll, I don't mind depositing more, this is just what I have scattered in 4 online sportsbooks.  As you can see by my wagering early on, nothing close to a high percentage and I doubt I will ever bet over 2.5% on any one game during the season.  You will however see me betting 2% of the opening bankroll on games as the season progresses.  Those would be considered high wager games.

I think betting tens of thousands of dollars on any sport, especially the NBA is ludicrous.  The competitive balance of sports these days equates to the motto, anything can happen, anyone can win.  I would never do this especially when banks in Kenya offer me 22% interest on my savings :)  I do this for enjoyment not employment, and I suggest to everyone who reads this to not bet on the NBA this season if you need to make money in order to pay rent, tuition or feed your family.  It is just not a good idea.  Best of luck to all this season. 

  

Those are three solid picks doliver, I think the depth and offensive power of Denver may bee too much for Portland tonight.  Denver is very confident in themselves at the moment and that could be a hindrance or a positive attribute.  The Magic have enough to blow out the Nets by 20+ tonight, the only reason it remains a lean is due to the fact that the depth of Orlando is not very enticing in terms of double digit spreads.  I don't suspect I will ever take them as double digit favorites at home this year, if I don't have confidence in taking them against the worst team in the NBA, I doubt I will ever have the confidence in taking them.  I wish you the best of luck on your plays buddy.

Dankeschön my German friend.  I appreciate the kind words buddy.  I am glad to be back as well.  I hope your German Dirk comes through with a big game tonight.  Best of luck my man.

very nice write up 

BOL this season Mak...

Man I know that Dallas is the right play here in terms of scheduling and buy low, sell high philosophy... but my god, I just do NOT want to bet them in this spot. Then again, I don't care how young you are, 4 days in 5 nights is an absolute grind, and you have to wonder how much OKC has left in the tank after their hard fought victory over a solid Memphis squad. Look at all the traveling OKC has done since Christmas -- home game vs. ORL, fly to MIN for a B2B, rest one day, fly to MEM for away game, then fly back to OKC for DAL.... that's an absolutely brutal travel stretch.

Who protects the rim for Dallas? How are their guards going to stop Westbrook from getting to the rim at will?

I know Dallas can't be as bad as they have looked so far, but they look to me like a flawed roster now. (I'd also argue from your season preview on DAL that DEN could argue they are a legit 12 deep team)

I have already locked in ORL and DEN, and seeing you lean that way makes me happy that we are on the same wavelength

Let's not forget Mak that POR has played two decent squads so far in PHI and SAC, but neither are particularly road warriors or top tier squads IMO.... DEN on the other hand is one of the top 5 teams in the league for my money.

Good luck mak,

I actually appreciate those 4 words a lot more than you know, thanks very much and best of luck with your picks.

My man OB, looking forward to sharing insights with you this season.  Thanks for the post and BOL to you as well.

First off my friend, CM Punk IS the best in the world.  Love him, only reason I watch that stupid thing is because of him.

Secondly, you make some very good points, the fatigue factory in a situational aspect like this is detrimental to any team no matter how young the legs are.  The mental fatigue and physicality of this league will grind you down.  I didn't realize how tumultuous the travel has been for OKC until you put it into straight words like that.  Appreciate it, makes me feel a bit better betting on a team that I think I may have pegged incorrectly in my season preview and betting against a team I think I pegged correctly.  Best of luck brother.  I hope you read what I wrote in my reply today in the "Return of The Mack" thread, I meant it bro.  You are basically the only one on covers.  

Really top 5 KP?  Don't get me wrong, read my team preview on the Nuggets, I am very very high on them.  They may even have a chance at home court advantage in the first round but top 5 overall?  I would think there are at least 5 overall I could name that I would predict to have a better overall record than the Nugs this season.

But you are 100% correct, the Nugs are 10 deep to be precise and what amazing depth they have.  Their 5 role player could beat a handfull of starters in this league.  They are very young, exuberant and extremely underrated.  I actually like the 76ers a lot and that is why I am refraining from a wager tonight on Denver, if Portland can beat Philly, they may be able to beat Denver, but in terms of the spread, and your opinions about the Nuggets, I may decide to take the 5 points and run with Denver as a wager. 



 

Hey mak, one thing to remember is dallas knocked out okc in the western finals last year so they may be looking for revenge.

Good to see you as well CT, to tell you the truth I actually miss Canada quite a bit, but stepping out on the beach in 35 Celsius degree temperatures, rather than stepping out for a smoke in -20 Celsius and freezing my man parts off...I think I miss it a bit less at this time of the year.  Best of luck my friend.

 

Excellent point there Introspect, I did equate for the revenge factor while capping this game I just forgot to mention it in the writeup.  I take the revenge factor very seriously.  It has proven to be quite successful so far this season, however, the fatigue factor overpowers that revenge factor.  Scheduling wise this just is not a good spot for the Thunder, they are perfect, Dallas is win-less, they are on 4 in 5 nights and Dallas is on 2 days rest, I take that fatigue factor into aspect over the revenge factor.  Good luck with your plays today bud.