Posted:
#1
This 4.5 line is the shortest against the Raptors in the 8 games since the Big 3 arrived. A little too low, imo. Too much weight being given to the acquisition of Rudy. The Heat are 8-0 SU and have won all the games by 6 points or more.
After the initial Rudy G. euphoria of Friday night, reality will likely set in today. The Clips played lethargically; Miami will not.
The Heat are a horrible rebounding team which is generally their weakest area, but the Raptors are no better. Losing Ed Davis doesn't help. Birdman will make a difference for the Heat, imo, especially against a mediocre Raps interior. Gray and Amir Johnson are not consistent.
Toronto is #1 in assist/turnover ratio, but that will surely change with Calderon gone. The Heat are ball hawks when they are focused and I expect them to be today, going into the All-Star break.
Bargnani is a strong possibility to play and I view that as a pure negative for the Raps offense. He is not the type of guy to come back off a long absence and shoot a high percentage. He also is the soft, non-aggressive type of Eurotrash the Heat tend to play better against.
Too many personnel changes over the last few days for me to believe the Raps can have a strong cohesion tonight against a better, more experienced and (hopefully, though no guarantee)motivated Heat team.
The Raps are not ready yet to deserve such a short line.
Spo also gets the All-Star coaching gig with a win. I wouldn't discount that as a factor, especially with Bosh maybe getting a spot if Spo goes.
Heat -4.5 for me. Good luck to all.
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