ML Favorites

Has anyone else notice how much ML favorites are winning this year in sports this year? Especially in the NFL and NBA? I have never seen this before in the 15 years I have been gambling.

Actually this season, NBA Favorites have won 68% of their games SU.

Last season, NBA Favorites won 68.96% of their games SU.

GL 

Since all star weekend, ml favorites are 42-11. Hitting at a 79.92% rate right now. 

@Jimmy_Cats

Ok thanks. I guess I just jumped in after all star weekend and couldn’t believe how much ML favorites are hitting. Dog spreads are hitting normally, but dog ml is low at the moment. In the NFL favorite ML hit extremely high. So from what I am seeing from after all star weekend, I am like what is going on? 

They don’t want the little man to have their come up and do well. It’s designed for the average Joe to stay broke and feed into it. It’s a psych-op. They know who they got hooked and bet the big dogs. They will hand the whales laying wood and no biggie but they clean up with average gambler betting big dog ml and it’s wipe out city often. They can’t let big dogs eat because then average Joe shite the rag man now has moneyzz 

@WaterBoy999

 OP.  I’ve noticed this since MLB a year ago.  Favorites in ALL sports have been winning at a clip that is unreal.  Not really sure how to define it.  There should be a come back but it has not been happening.  I’m a dog ML guy and the past year has been absolutely brutal in all sports.  Maybe it’ll turn around?  Vegas can’t keep letting Joe Blow winning dumb parlays they drop on a nightly basis.

@stevex01

 It’s easy to define lol. They want to turn the screws on the public because they know we are hooked especially now that gambling is legal and shoved down our throats anytime we watch a game. They know we want the big score. Pre Covid it still was behind the curtain and not so widely excepted so big dogs would come in often 

@stevex01

 And they dint mind Joe blow winning 75$-200$ on heavy parlay favorite. What they can’t have is the guy winning 5-10k off 50$ on big dog parlays 

preach brother preach

@NYG991

So since the average Joe knows about legalized sports betting they all win now lol?  That’s an absurd take.  If anything dogs should be winning MORE since Joe and Bob can bet their parlays and hope to win $500 on a $50.  The market is absolutely strange for the past year.  How does Joe Blow continue to have winning numbers?

@stevex01

 Exactly! It’s been going on for a while. I am dog spread kind of bettor, which has been normal, but it’s definitely more stressful than usual, because the dogs don’t win like they use to. Before I would bet a +5.5 or +4.5 and it would hit easily, because they would win SU. Now consistently it’s a nail bitter, because they are mostly losing. NBA they went 3-2 for ML favorites now making it 45-13 since all star break! ML favorites are literally hitting 78%. NFL this year was that high too. So yeah there are a lot of people hitting favorite ML parlays at this moment. 

@NYG991

I see what you are saying, but I don’t understand how that would work in Vegas favor? Because yeah someone could put $100 on two-three money line parlays at +1000. From what I have observed and Steve here too and I am sure other people out there are noticing this too, is ML favorites even at -150 are hitting at a high right. You bunch those -120 to -180 5 game parlay which would be +1300 you are going to turn it into a nice flip and do it consistently at this rate. I’m not a parlay bettor and I am sure as soon as I decide to try this it would fail, but I know there are people out there raking it in. Just take a look at the Games since all star weekend. 45-13 ML Favorites. Something is off. They must be making a lot of money off player props or something.

Moneyline parlays 

@Tailer187

Definitely tempted, but in my years of gambling that did not work out for me. Kudos though if you have been taking advantage of that. 

58-25 ML favorites hitting 70% since all star break. Something tells me Dogs might sweep the board tonight. 

64-26 ML favorites since all-star break. 71%. 

70-29 ML Favorites. Since NBA all-star weekend. Hitting at 70.7%. 

70-29 could easily still lose money depending on how many of those are -500...900...and higher favorites.....the thunder recently lost as -600 favs and the sixers as -550 favs.......be interesting what profit if any goes with that 70-29 mark.

@vinnyherbert

 Your absolutely right. Even with the favs holding down a 70 -29 record they prolly are still not profitable and In the red cuz down on units. Like  your example showed it is nothing for a -500 or 600 to go down a couple nights a week . Also those smaller favs laying 4 to 6ish but costing -200ish Wil hurt too as it takes 2 out of 3 winners to just break even . . And when you put the additional teams on there that were -400 or more juice and lost -where you would need to win 4 out of 5 just to break even -you definetly have a seasn in the red and down several units. Money lines are bad real bad in about 90 % of betting scenarios .  Interesting chalk info though .. good luck everyone 

@vinnyherbert

 So since the All-Star only ML teams at -300 or more have lost.  

2/19 Lakers -770

2/22 Philly -550 and Hou -325

2/24 OKC -620

3/3 Mem -325

out of 99 games since all star break only 5 big chalk games have lost.

Right now you would be in the green if you were to only do SU bets with the ML favorites.  All it would take though is 2 days to get in the red if ML dogs start hitting at a high rate.  If you been parlaying them, there is a great chance you are raking in the green and it would take a lot to fall out into the red, if you manage your money correctly.

@Pauly-P

As presented above teams at -300 or above have only lost 5 times since all star break. You are right if you are just betting those games su.  Right now if you were to do that you would be in the green right now, but like you said all it would take is one or two days of having a big dog day to get you in the red. Thing is most people are parlaying them. So if you were to do 2-3 game parlays at a time right now, you would be hitting at a high percentage which some people on this forum have shown they are hitting those consistently and on social media people are hitting 6-7 teamers them left and right. I noticed after the big dog win against the Lakers on 2/19 ML favorites are tearing it up.  With the NFL hitting ML favorites at 70% or even higher and so far NBA hitting ML favorites after all star break, people that parlay favorites are having a field year.  

Some maybe thinking well why not just start parlaying the favorites myself.  I am not going to start doing that.  I do not like to parlay.  Nothing like doing a 5 teamer to lose by one.  It is a good way to chase and I have messed up plenty of times chasing because losing a parlay by one.  I am sure as soon as I start parlaying ML favorites, that is the time where dog ML will hit at an all time high or something ridiculous like that.

ML favorites so far tonight are 5-0. 75-29 since all star break. Some dogs spread hit though, but I am telling you. I have never seen this happen. 72.10%

ML Favorites 77-30 since all star break. Hitting at 72%. Starting to regret not taking advantage of the ML favorite parlays. If you happen to be taking advantage that is nice. 

I use to hunt the NBA for high ML dogs that could win SU. It’s seems like they just haven’t been hitting this year. However, 1st half money line dogs are still hitting.

I miss those +400 ML dogs….

If you hit 2 in a parlay…..  it’s bank.