Posted:
#1
ATS All-Time: 10-3-0
My 2008-2009 NBA season betting debut is tonight. I've made a few small, personal bets that were primarily meant to get me re-acclimated to the new season, but tonight will be my first post because I think I've got a winner. Let's hope I can rekindle last year's magic...
The pick tonight is Miami -9.
This spread jumped out at me because, well, it's 9 points in favor of the Heat -- a team that bottomed out last season, and, despite early signs of a more confident team, still remains one of the public's least favorite teams to back. I think Vegas understands that it's going to take a few more weeks for bettors to pay Miami the respect they deserve (which isn't a lot, but it's definitely more than last season). Thus, 9 points is HUGE. This is a team that was getting 20+ points at home last season, and it's not like the team's been reworked so much since that point, at least not to the tune of... -9!
You're probably wondering why I would actually take them at -9 if I think that's such a big number for an average team. Well, I think Vegas doesn't want the public on the Heat tonight so they threw out a number big enough to get a 50/50 consensus split. It's an attempt by Vegas to save their asses from getting burned as the public begins to realize that the 2008 Nets, on the road, without Devin Harris, is an automatic fade, no matter the team. Vegas thinks that a 9 point spread will scare bettors away from taking the Heat, even though this game has blowout written all over it. Not to mention that the line has moved in favor of the Heat, despite 50/50 action, in an attempt to bait Nets-takers.
Vegas aside, the Heat dominate the match-up. On the road, they haven't been that impressive (1-3 SU, though a win against the Spurs is nothing to scoff at), but at home, they have both won and covered in their first 2 games, beating a potent Philadelphia team handily, and a Kings squad that's turned out to be not-so-bad as of late. But my pick is not so much an endorsement of the Heat as it is a damning of the Nets. Let's face it, the Nets are pretty awful on the road, even with Devin Harris. Without him, they are last year's Heat. In their 18 point loss to the Pacers a couple of nights ago, the Pacers missed 22 three-pointers. Yup, 22. The Pacers did not shoot well, yet won handily. The Nets are shooting just 40% from FG range and 30% from beyond the arc, against teams like the Suns, and the Warriors, not exactly defensive powerhouses, in their last 5 games (at home!). The Heat are shooting 45/35, respectively, against better defensive teams, in their last 5. With Harris out of the game both this year and last, the Nets have failed to score points. Vince Carter is simply not built to carry a team, especially if he struggles at all early on.
To sum it up: The Heat, based on early indicators, are a solid team at home this year. They are shooting significantly better than the Nets right now, and the Nets are without their spark. And finally, Vegas wants you to take the Nets.
Good luck, let's get the ball rolling.
My 2008-2009 NBA season betting debut is tonight. I've made a few small, personal bets that were primarily meant to get me re-acclimated to the new season, but tonight will be my first post because I think I've got a winner. Let's hope I can rekindle last year's magic...
The pick tonight is Miami -9.
This spread jumped out at me because, well, it's 9 points in favor of the Heat -- a team that bottomed out last season, and, despite early signs of a more confident team, still remains one of the public's least favorite teams to back. I think Vegas understands that it's going to take a few more weeks for bettors to pay Miami the respect they deserve (which isn't a lot, but it's definitely more than last season). Thus, 9 points is HUGE. This is a team that was getting 20+ points at home last season, and it's not like the team's been reworked so much since that point, at least not to the tune of... -9!
You're probably wondering why I would actually take them at -9 if I think that's such a big number for an average team. Well, I think Vegas doesn't want the public on the Heat tonight so they threw out a number big enough to get a 50/50 consensus split. It's an attempt by Vegas to save their asses from getting burned as the public begins to realize that the 2008 Nets, on the road, without Devin Harris, is an automatic fade, no matter the team. Vegas thinks that a 9 point spread will scare bettors away from taking the Heat, even though this game has blowout written all over it. Not to mention that the line has moved in favor of the Heat, despite 50/50 action, in an attempt to bait Nets-takers.
Vegas aside, the Heat dominate the match-up. On the road, they haven't been that impressive (1-3 SU, though a win against the Spurs is nothing to scoff at), but at home, they have both won and covered in their first 2 games, beating a potent Philadelphia team handily, and a Kings squad that's turned out to be not-so-bad as of late. But my pick is not so much an endorsement of the Heat as it is a damning of the Nets. Let's face it, the Nets are pretty awful on the road, even with Devin Harris. Without him, they are last year's Heat. In their 18 point loss to the Pacers a couple of nights ago, the Pacers missed 22 three-pointers. Yup, 22. The Pacers did not shoot well, yet won handily. The Nets are shooting just 40% from FG range and 30% from beyond the arc, against teams like the Suns, and the Warriors, not exactly defensive powerhouses, in their last 5 games (at home!). The Heat are shooting 45/35, respectively, against better defensive teams, in their last 5. With Harris out of the game both this year and last, the Nets have failed to score points. Vince Carter is simply not built to carry a team, especially if he struggles at all early on.
To sum it up: The Heat, based on early indicators, are a solid team at home this year. They are shooting significantly better than the Nets right now, and the Nets are without their spark. And finally, Vegas wants you to take the Nets.
Good luck, let's get the ball rolling.
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