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Money Line All in

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Posted: #1

Just to give you guys a brief summary.

My theory is simple, players don't care about the spread, all they care about is winning, this is why you'll see a couple of unexplainable plays at the end of games.

So I decided to roll with moneyline instead of spread and bet big money.

So far, the games I played are Boston vs Philly, Toronto vs Cavs, Philly vs Chicago, Pelicans vs Kings.

I know these are low odds but starting with 5000 and going all in, im up to 10 000. Good thing I know what teams to fade.

Never bet on losing teams no matter who they play (Cavs perfect example yesterday) always fade inconsistent teams (OKC, Detroit, Bucks, Wizards, Miami, Denver, Utah, Houston, Lakers)

Fav teams to bet on ( Toronto, Boston, Pacers (home games only), Pelicans, Portland) I like Philly, Houston, Clippers depends on the context. Keep in mind, I only bet on those teams when they are at home playing losing teams. 

Let me know what you guys think.
 
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Posted: #2
Today's Pick:

Toronto Moneyline : 3500 to win 4270.
 
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Posted: #3

I like your analysis even though I don't agree with all of it but I like the fact that you shared it and its definitely thought provoking. I would add Milwaukee to what you said  but I would remove Portland and the Clippers for this season.

Tonight's conservative ML parlay would be Toronto , Boston , Milwaukee and Utah.. Add the Warriors if your greedy..

 
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Posted: #4

This will never work out longterm...you are always just one random upset away from going on tilt and losing it all on your follow up chase wager.

OKC losing as a DD pt home fav to Sac is a perfect example.

Its your money, but just understand this wiill not end well for your bankroll.

Victory Belongs to the Most Tenacious
 
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Posted: #5
Yeah I only do Clippers versus teams that don't play hard because Clippers have a deep roster and intense players (avery, beverly, etc)
Portland really depends who they are playing.

As for today, I really debated Toronto or Bucks , Boston odds are way too low and don't trust them yet, they seem not to be clicking yet. Bucks odds are low but Bucks have disappointed me a few times last year. 

As when the Toronto game ends, Utah game will start, I will like into that, although I don't like to play teams with bad offense (Utah), I don't see them losing back to back games at home, specially versus Memphis where there's no 3 point shooting. Marc Gasol and Conley seemed to have checked out mentally.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

This will never work out longterm...you are always just one random upset away from going on tilt and losing it all on your follow up chase wager.

OKC losing as a DD pt home fav to Sac is a perfect example.

Its your money, but just understand this wiill not end well for your bankroll.


You're definitely right, I'm only doing this for 4-5 more games.

But that's my point, I've been watching basketball forever and had enough experience to see Kings beating OKC yesterday to make me not bet on the game.

Same thing for Cavs, Cavs moneyline seemed attractive but I never do teams that don't play for anything.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Yorky99:

I like your analysis even though I don't agree with all of it but I like the fact that you shared it and its definitely thought provoking. I would add Milwaukee to what you said  but I would remove Portland and the Clippers for this season.

Tonight's conservative ML parlay would be Toronto , Boston , Milwaukee and Utah.. Add the Warriors if your greedy..


I never combine ML's, only choose one, my bookie offers a payout right away if the lead hits 18 points if you do a single bet. All the ML's I did this year all hit 18 point lead, which is really assuring not having to worry about a comeback.
 
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Posted: #8
Never do all in ok Many chance for upset right?
 
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Posted: #9

Utah does not have a "bad offense" and the Pelicans are NOT a "consistent team"

 

Best of luck, sir, but please.....be careful

 
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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

This will never work out longterm...you are always just one random upset away from going on tilt and losing it all on your follow up chase wager. OKC losing as a DD pt home fav to Sac is a perfect example. Its your money, but just understand this wiill not end well for your bankroll.

Leather
 
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Posted: #11

Never works in the long haul. One bad beat and then we go on tilt chasing and next thing ya know there's a donut in the account. 

 
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Posted: #12

buying hooks and points is a much better strategy imo.

 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by AvidGuru:

Utah does not have a "bad offense" and the Pelicans are NOT a "consistent team"

 

Best of luck, sir, but please.....be careful


Yes Utah has bad offense, even though they play within a system, they rely on Ingles and Donovan playmaking, I can't trust that enough for an all in.

Pelicans will not lose to a bad team at home within the first 20 games. The pace they play at is unbelievable, scoring is too easy for them. With Randle off the bench it just keeps going, they will lose games but not to bad teams at home. 
 
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Posted: #14
Good win today, faded the right teams (don't trust Boston yet, no flow at all on offense. Also Utah offense sucks like I mentionned before, very inconsistent)

Also Bucks would've gave me a scare.
 
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Posted: #15
Tomorrow looks like a no bet kind of day. Leaning on Pelicans will see later tomorrow.

Pelicans Moneyline : 4200 to win 5900.

Will confirm tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #16
Ballz of steel but my friend but  I am fading u clippers ml +some change 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by MLdogs:

Ballz of steel but my friend but  I am fading u clippers ml +some change 

Love it, clippers lack offense, only way I seem them keeping this close is if Lou Will gives you 30. 

Gortat/Boban are gonna have big problems with AD and Randle.

Pelicans rely on offense to win games and most of the them that ends up costing you. But not tonight, not enough offense from Clippers to keep up.

BOL
 
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Posted: #18
Looks like no all in today, tomorrow is a better day.

Will be playing Detroit and Pelicans moneyline.

150 to win 400.

Philly no Simmons, they were already overrated with him. No guard play for sixers tonight. Detroit takes this one home.
 
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Posted: #19

an_cheersGood job Blake

 
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Posted: #20
Tomorrow sounds like a perfect day for an all in.

Looking at Toronto,Warriors or Bucks (if Simmons is out, also have a feeling Embid will rest). 
 
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Posted: #21
Hope you keep staying alive. GL!
 
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Posted: #22
damn thanks for the tip i took both ur nba and i added my college pick troy ml paid out pretty good whats ur picks for today can u give me a all in pick ;)
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Madmonster:

damn thanks for the tip i took both ur nba and i added my college pick troy ml paid out pretty good whats ur picks for today can u give me a all in pick ;)


 
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Posted: #24
Still waiting on injury reports. Mainly for Wiggins game time decision. Simmons will most likely be out and expect Embiid to rest (90% sure). Embiid has never played on a back to back OT game, let alone with Simmons already doubtful, I don't see the Sixers going for this one. 

Jump on the Bucks now before the line goes up, currently at -6, expect it to be at -9.5 without Embiid/Simmons.

Regardless of injury reports, Toronto and Warriors are winners tonight.

Will confirm later on.
 
 
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Posted: #25

Meanwhile adding a little parlay fun.

Toronto ML
Miami ML
Bucks ML
Warriors ML
Suns +9.5 (bought points)
Utah +9.5 (bought points)

 

120 to win 570.

 

 

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