NBA 1/27 PICKS + WRITEUP (53-38)

YTD 53-38 

Tonight...

Detroit O218.5 + TT O112.5 - Detroit keeps getting undervalued in the O/U category. Cleveland allows the 7th highest points on the road (115) and also has the 3rd worst DEff in the league. Detroit has hit O110 in 8 of their past 10 games. I see this one being a nailbiter with both teams summing up a good amount of points...

Heat -6 + TT O107.5 - The Heat lost to the Magic a few weeks ago. The Magic come into Miami, who are 20-2 at home, after a tough loss against the LAC. I think their defensive efforts slow down tonight and the south beach boys rain it on them. Really tough back to back spot against a rival who just lot only their 2nd game at home. The Heat at home have the 5th best EDiff and the 2nd best consistency rating. With the 3rd best home OEff and Orlando being the 5th worst scoring team in the league, the Heat should be able to take control tonight...

BOL...

For the Pistons, -7 is too high and the line dropping makes me feel confident in the TT. I cannot see the Pistons scoring like 90. I see them getting to at least 110 and then the Cavs are gonna be responsible for their part for the game over. 

My calculations had the Heat at -7.5 and it is at 6, so yes a little low. It is because Miami often struggles against true defensive teams, but Orlando on a back to back in a place where you have to hit shots, I think it will be rough for them. 

really good analysis of the orl @ heat game--thanks--gl

Heat open at -4.5 now its -6

Big chance some players wont be playing today

Bookies obviously are aware about it in advance 

Kendrick Nunn is out 

Goran Dragic is Active 

Jimmy a GTD...waiting on that. given that it fell from 6.5 to now 5.5 he could be out 

Detroit/Cleveland game goes under.... time for D!

Solid stuff as usual Phillip 

Jimmy Butler is playing, good stuff

Wow...Cavs/Pistons is down to 213.5.....Opened 223....I don't care who is not playing...Thats a pretty low total.....Under could hit but sheesh no value...Pistons games have gone over the total 8 of last 10 games...

Thank you guys 

and Dave yes I have seen mutliple times in the past few days that same thing happen and the game still go way over...

Jimmy (ankle) Butler is IN