NBA 2/28 PICKS + WRITEUP

YTD 82-65

55.8% 

Tonight...

Raptors TT O114.5 - After a big loss to the Bucks, I see the raps coming out at home swinging against a weaker team. The spread is a bit too much but I like for them to fill the scoreboard. They average 116 at home and have reached that number all but twice in their past 10. The Hornets and their defensive worries might be in big trouble tonight...

Heat O228.5 - This will be a great game. Miami has been struggling as of late (what I call natural decline) but it is on the defensive end and not the offensive. They still average 117 at home with the #1 home OEff. The over has also hit in their past 5 straight games. The Mavs are a dominant road team, with the #1 road OEff and an 18-11 O/U road record. I like for a close game tonight where both teams run up the score...

Bucks O228.5 - The two hottest teams in basketball. And the Bucks are still favored by 11. WOW. But it is expected and with that I will take the over for both teams to run up the score. The Bucks are 9-1 O/U with a similar line and average a stunning 121 PPG at home. With their #3 home OEff ranking and OKC feeling themselves in big games as of late, I will settle with another over...

Clippers -5.5 - When the Clips are fully healthy, they are almost unstoppable. A big game tonight will bring out the best from the stars and I see Denver being too slow in this one. The Clips are 17-12 ATS at home with the 6th best PtDiff and EDiff. I expect the team with the 3rd best Deff to be the stronger side in this big one...

BOL... 

Great writeup and like the overs.  GL

Thank you 

what worries me about that Dallas over is that dallas barely broke 100 away from home against Spurs and Hawks, both bottom defensive teams

their offense seems odd as of late

I think that is an interest issue. Also Doncic was out against the Hawks. In Miami against one of the best home teams I think Dallas should come out hot. 

Leaning towards taking the Dallas TT O111.5 as well. Miami has really struggled defensively as of late against teams with a main star running the scene. 

OKC I think covers tonight. They have won 14 of last 17, they are 9-0 ATS in 2nd night of back to back. 7-2 in last 9 when playing at Milwaukee. 

It crazy how the bucks can lay -12 to the Thunder who have WON 11 straight on the road and I know they are on on BTB.....Yet the Bucks only lay -8.5/9 to the 76ers who are atrocious on the road in 2 recent home games....

That's a great write-up on the Raptors. Good stuff there. Gonna tail.

Thanks dude

8-0 ATS, actually.  Please excuse the nitpick.  I've been looking over those eight games and the 8-0 ATS record is not as impressive after taking a closer look.  On three of those occasions they didn't have to travel.  They played consecutive home games in November against the Warriors and then the Bucks, to whom they narrowly lost 121-119 as 9-point home dogs.  A week later, they played two nights in a row at Staples Center, losing 112-107 to the Lakers on the second night as 11.5-point dogs.  Keep in mind that back in November, the Thunder had a losing record and nobody knew how good they were going to become.  That's why they were getting such big spreads against the Bucks and Lakers. Since that loss to the Lakers, which dropped them to 5-9, they have gone 32-13 yet the oddsmakers saw fit to let bettors take them +11.5 today.  Hmm...

The second night of back-to-back success also included a 104-102 overtime win against the pitiful Hornets in Charlotte.  Eleven days later, the Thunder defeated the Nets in Brooklyn 111-103, also in overtime.  The reeling Nets were in the midst of losing 12 out of 14 and that game was their seventh straight loss.

On January 17th and 18th, the Thunder again enjoyed consecutive home games.  On the second night, they got to face a very shorthanded Blazers team.  The Blazers had only 8 available players, and C.J. McCollum was not among them.  The Thunder took care of them 119-106.

Lastly, on January 24th the Thunder enjoyed a rocking chair 140-111 home win over the Hawks and then traveled to Minnesota for a game the next night.  The hideous T-Wolves were on an 8-game losing streak and promptly lost their ninth straight to the Thunder 113-104. The T-Wolves went on to lose 13 in a row.

Yeah....makes one suspect the Thunder are about to get mollywhopped.

Last time when  Milwaukee were at home on Friday laying 12 points to winning team from west conference .... they lost SU

Nuggets were B2B that time too

It is all matchup. The number is quite high but calculations showing the line should be somewhere there...

And hopefully that leads to a high scoring game... 

Do you like anyone today master bator

Raptors shots are not dropping here.

Need to pick up the pace big time 

Yeah I had their ML in a parlay as well. Really screwing everything up right now...

I took the ML live +105

I rarely make a live play but no way this continues. 

I hope......

I'm not sure why I doubted your research haha. I didn't do that much digging, still new to capping if I could even call my research "capping" haha. You were the clearcut winner on this one!