NBA AFTER 25 GAME REPORT...........................

Every year we get some unexpected teams doing well to start the season, but most times these teams fade and return to their normal expected level. Over the years I've found that reaching the 25 game mark seems to be key as if a team can sustain strong play for that many games generally they are for real.

Once teams get to 35 games that PR is about how they'll finish up the year.

And this year we do have 1 such team............some years back I called for the Warriors to win the title at about the 25 game mark which was their very first title with that group of players. Interesting but many did not think the Warriors could win the title as we heard how jump-shooting teams don't win NBA Titles amoung other reasons.

Generally these type teams that have not won yet with the same core of players has great odds as public loves to back proven winners although those proven winners get beat all the time but the public just feels comfortable with such plays.

I got Warriors at +750 around the 25 game mark  then again at +700 and again at +550 and +500, a steal of a price for the best team in the league at the time.

POWER RATING I.........................................................

1. Jazz 9.73

2. Lakers 7.8

3. Bucks 7.71

4. Clippers 7.66

5. Nets 5.77

Wow, Jazz well ahead of the rest of the field with 3 teams grouped close together in 2cd, 3rd, 4th.

Nets a little back but the 3 players missed many games so a little to early to properly judge the Nets. However, the early indications are not all that promising for winning the title. A weak rebounding team for 1 thing, no rebounds no rings,  and not that great interior defense. They look more like the offensive jugernaut KC Chiefs. 

POWER RATING II.........................................

1. Jazz 56.1

2. Bucks 55

3. Lakers 54.75

4. Clippers 54.55

5. Nets 51.98

Yep, once again the Jazz well ahead of the pack with 3 teams again grouped very tight for 2cd, 3rd, and 4th. Nets well back as PR II is based more on balance and Nets weak rebounding really shows up here.

The Jazz are doing what the Rockets did but only way better. They lead the league in 3 pt attempts and 3 pt rate, % of 3 pt shots VS all shots. They take about 48% of shots are 3 pts and they shoot lights out, much better then the Rockets and they are far better in 2 pt FG % Margin, outshooting opps by 4.9% in 2 pt shots.

Rockets were not good outshooting opps in 2 pt shots because of lack of defense something the Jazz excell at being no. 1.

Rockets had only 1 year they put up any kind of good margin in 2 pt shooting and that happen to be the year they took Warriors to 7 games but had injuries to I believe Chris Paul , but their best year in 2 pt shooting margin which was at championship levels, their only year at championship levels in 2 pt margin,  they were right there to advance to the finals, the closest they ever got losing a game 7.

FG % Margin has a high correlation to making the finals and winning the title. Warriors were out-played many years in overall FG % and once again their best year they lost in game 7, the closest they came to making the final.

Jazz outshoot opps by 2.8% which is well above what the Rockets Did. So even though they take many 3's which lowers overall FG % numbers they still outshoot opps by a championship level, this team has taken their game to a new level ofd very strong play.

And they hae been not just winning but dominating the boards, winning by 7.2 per game and 52.6% which is very, very strong. Lakers at 51.55, Clippers 51, Bucks 52.05, Nets 49 %. Complete balance by the Jazz, incredible to take so many 3's and outshoot opps by a good amount but still grab all those rebounds, just incredible.

This Jazz team is a far, far better version of the Rockets and a somewhat similar version of the Warriors having transformed their game to 3 pt shots .

Jazz to win the NBA Title +1200.....................1.5 units to win 18 units

Jazz to win the West +600.............................1.5 units to win 9 units

Unforetunately could of had +1600 yesterday and +700, bummer for sure, was to busy to get it done.

Bucks to win the East +260.....................................1 unit to win 2.6 units 

Hopefully Jazz can grab the no. 1 seed and avoid  having to beat both Clippers and Lakers, let those 2 teams battle it out and Jazz get home couirt only needing to beat one of them.  

Will be chimming in every now and again with updated plays as warranted , possibly after the 35 game mark.

BOL .................................................

Opps, should of read in the 4th paragraph in post 2 the rockets were out-played many years in FG %. NOT THE WARRIORS WHO EXCELL IN OUT-PLAYING OPPS IN FG % when they were winning titles.

Welcome back theclaw!

.............................What do you think about how the Jazz are playing ?? Worth a futures bet especially seeing how the odds are so good ???

@theclaw

 I had a suspicion this would be your team.... I got Utah +750 to win west a little over a week ago.  Will sprinkle some title action on them now 

Wowsa, Jazz keep on truck'in, they have actual played better then these ratings and have increased their lead in both PR's.

What's interesting is, their 3 pt shooting % dropped, they did have 5 guys shooting 41% or better which would almost certainly be a record, but even when they did not shoot 3's as well they won by double digits.

This indicates balance, being able to compensate and not rely on one aspect to beat the pants off other teams.  Wow this team is on another level.

If you saw the article on the front page of covers comparing the Jazz's historic ATS run to 2014-2015 Hawks, I looked up the Hawks, not comparable to this Jazz team. Small pt marghin below 6, SRS of 4.75 when factoring in SOS. Jazz pt margin 9.66 and SRS 10.3. 

Plus the Hawks a very weak rebounding team, 21.4 % off rebs good for a dreadful  30th and 73.4 % def rebs good for a very poor 22cd = 47.4 %, no rebounds, no rings.

So  in other words, don't use the Hawks teams results in the playoffs as a guide for how this team will perform in the playoffs as this Jazz teams is not only very efficient with shooting and def Against opp shooting but a dominate reb team, on a complete different level from that Hawks tream.

................................. I just missed the +750, still kicking myself for not going the day before I went, it was almost certain to drop if they continued to win big which they did. And missed the +1600 to win the title by a day, was planning on going to local book but was a bit worn-out from running errands and such last sat. 

Now with A Davis injury could very well be a lingering issue all season and into playoffs, LBJ has tapered-off some this season as has Davis, still early but might be the perfect season for a team like Utah to get it done.

Good read! thanks claw! 

wish i grabbed this at +2000 over a week ago, now just +500/600 today. with AD being sidelined for a month it makes things a little more interesting. 

homecourt advantage doesnt seem to be much of a deal with limited fans still, but i think grabbing that #1 does help the Jazz in that they'll likely wont have to face both Laker and Clipper. of course this depends on where the Clipper end up. if the Clip end up 4th seed then they'll have no choice but to face both teams.

Jazz to win the title. +1200 NBA to lose all their viewers, except in Utah, -1,000,000. 

@begginerboy

 I don't think the NBA lost any viewers with Stockton & Malone in the Finals....yes I know who they were playing in those Finals.  Those from The North won that title just 2 short years ago....its covid, you know anything is possible.  That said, when has Lebron NOT made a finals when he has been healthy and actually played....hint, it was 2 decades ago...  

Great read.  Once again, thanks for your time and effort, TC.

Good luck with your bets.

Some do say they are comparable to the 2014-2015 Hawks, but I think they are way better than them, plenty of cases to state, but probably the strongest of them is that Utah has a superstar potential in Donovan, where you could probably rely on coming to playoffs. I am not sure yet if its worth the shot as the West has plenty of elite teams, with the rise of Phoenix, resilience of Portland even in the absence of their 2nd and 3rd best players, and I can see Dallas crawling back to higher seed and still be competitive in playoffs. 

@theclaw

 Welcome back bol

Lebron has his lowest Player Efficieny rating since his rookie year this year, he has been dropping pretty much every year and has now drop to his lowest level since rookie year, he is no longer a dominate player the way he used to be.

Granted many times his teams did play better in playoffs then regular season but he was very strong in those regular seasons, this year he is not.

Will be interesting for sure.

Interesting view point, I don't see Portland, Mavs or Suns being much challenge for the Jazz, Jazz should cruise into the West Finals assuming both LA teams end up 2 and 3.

Suns have a very nice team but they are very weak reb team, send their opps to the line more then they get there, aren't good at winning the TO battle, they have very little balance of doing many things well. Jazz should beat this team easily in 7 game series.

...... thank you.  Any thoughts on the NBA Title contenders this season ?

Jazz keep on truck'in, they did pickup a couple losses, I wouldn't read much into those.

If you saw the Clippers game Lou W was on the bench telling guys, hey we just lost to this team and we ain't losing to them again, it just ain't going to happen. Was easy to see Jazz simply did not match the intensity of the Clippers.

But things like this are to be expected, a team is not likely to  play at such high levels game after game with out having lapses, and not only that but other very good teams put you on their radar screen and take aim at specificly beating you, this is one of the biggest motivators for NBA players. So I wouldn't read to much into a few losses along the way.

Jazz still playing at a very high level and still playing the best basketball of any team.

And yet he is still the front runner for MVP..

2021 NBA FUTURES PLAY....................... additional plays

Jazz to Win NBA Title +800 ..... 1 unit to win 8 units 

Jazz to Win the West +450........1 unit to win 4.5 units

Maybe, but that is in name only not performance on the court.  Embiid should win  and if things continue to playout the way they are going Embiid wins the MVP, especially so if 76ers win the East. Once Durant comes back Nets might get the 1 seed Embiid could still win the MVP though.

Interesting game today with Clippiers at the Bucks. Bucks have been struggling VS better teams but Holiday should be back and give the Buckas a good shot to win SU. THEY are 13-4 at home, it's on the road where they struggle and aren't very good this season.

Clippers are like 12-5 on the road, but would still lean Bucks if Holiday  is Back.

game starts in about 10 minutes.