NBA Algorithm Picks - Day 5 of 10 (20-11 so far)

 20-11 overall: (9-7 spreads, 11-4 O/U)

recap:

Day 1: 8-5 (4-3 spreads, 4-2 O/U)

Day 2: 3-1 (1-1 spreads, 2-0 O/U)

Day 3: 9-5 (4-3 spreads, 5-2 O/U)

Day 4: TBP

Coming into Day 4 of this project, we're sitting on a 65% win rate over 31 bets, which is obviously excellent results, probably slightly above expected (the sharpest sharps in the world only win at a 60% rate over the long term). If you're new to these threads, this is a 10 day project I'm doing, giving away the picks from the complex algorithm that I've spent the last 12 months building, and which is a proven winning system. And unlike the vast majority of these types of posts you see here, you don't need to take my word for it, I'm making all my picks public for games the day before the games are played, so there's no ability for me to move the goalposts later to make my record look better than it is. The numbers are the numbers and they're laid out transparently for all to see. If I'm full of shit, I won't be able to hide that. And if I'm legit, there won't be any doubt. As they say, money talks and bullshit walks, and the fact that 99% of the "experts" giving their picks on forums like this never do so in a way that is transparent is simply because 99% of these "experts" don't actually have winning systems, and would be exposed if they did. It's as simple as that.

And if anyone takes issue with that, by all means, prove me wrong. Do exactly as I'm doing: make your picks before the game, post them publicly in numbered, easy to follow threads, and keep a running tally of all your picks, both the wins and the losses. Let the chips fall where they may.

The forum doesn't allow me to post links, but for confirmation of the current W/L tally, all picks can be found on the thread for that day by clicking on my name and finding them in my posting history.

One final note just so we're all on the same page, I'm not giving these away out of the goodness of my heart. At the end of 10 days, when there can be no doubt that this is a winning system, I won't be posting these lines publicly anymore. If you'd like to continue getting these lines, you'll need to subscribe to my patreon account. More information about that in the "Website Promotions" forum. I've spent roughly 600 hours developing and finetuning this algorithm, and it has proven itself a legitimate market-beater over the long term, and only a fool would give away something that valuable for free.

Here are the lines for tomorrow's games, Nov 14 (Day 5), listed by favorites. The picks for the games tonight can be found on the 'Day 4' thread in the forum:

SA @ LAL  ------> LAL -1.5/218

MIL @ ATL ------> MIL -3/215

BKN @ OKC -----> BKN -1.5/211

GS @ CHA -------> GS -5/222

PHX @ HOU------> PHX -3.5/218

POR @ DEN------> DEN -2/208

CHI @ LAC-------> LAC -7/216

Picks will be posted on this thread tonight when the Vegas lines come out.

Now that the opening lines have been posted, we can make our picks.

Since I'm running into the same questions on every thread, and because this forum limits my ability to answer them b/c new users can only make 5 posts/day, I would strongly encourage anyone with questions to take the time to read back through the threads that we've made to date (i.e. Day 1-4 threads). 

To summarize: The algorithm generates its own independent lines, separate from Vegas. (note the difference between "lines" and "picks". "Lines" are the predicted scores of the games, "picks" are the bets you make when your lines disagree with the Vegas lines). I'll post the lines for a days games the day before the games, and hours before the Vegas lines come out. Picks can't be made at that time because we need two sets of lines before we make bets, our lines and the Vegas lines. Picks can only be made once the Vegas lines come out.

Almost every thread so far has someone saying "are you sure you didn't mean Team A at -4.5? You have them at -6.5"

No, that's not how it works. Since we already know our lines, the moment the Vegas lines come out and we can compare them to ours, we're in a position to make out bets. (For transparency sake, we'll use the opening lines at Vegas Insider dot com, so that you know I'm not shopping around for the best lines to make my picks looks better thatn they are). The reason we make our bets at the open is because that's when they are at their most inefficient. And because we make our bets so early, by the time the lines close later in the day, they're very often different than they were when we made our bets. Sometimes the lines move away from us, but more often than not they move towards our lines.  Let's say the algorithm predicts an O/U of 215 for a given game, and Vegas opens at 219. That's a bet signal for me and I'll bet the Under-219. If it moves towards my line later in the day to, say, 216, my original bet still stands, and I've locked in 3 pts of value, which is excellent. Of course, it's a double edged sword, and sometimes it moves away from me to, say, 221. In that case I've lost value. But just like in real life, I don't get to go back and change my bet just because the line moved against me. The whole point of this is to do it in a way as to take out any bullshit or padded stats.

So if you see a pick here that is at a different line than it is currently, go back and look at the opening line of that bet and you'll see why I have the bet where it is. This is done to prevent me from going back and changing my results to make them look better and to give an honest assessment of the performance of this system. The reason you almost never see that kind of openness and transparency regarding bets on forums like this is simply because the vast majority of these "experts" don't avtually know what they're doing and they're no more likely to win than you're Aunt Millie is, making her picks based on the her favorite uniform colors of the team.

With that, here are the picks for today:

Spreads

Mil +1

OKC +9.5

Hou +9

LAC -4

Over/Under

SAS/LAL: Under-223

MIL @ ATL: Under-219.5

PHX @ HOU: Under-223

POR @ DEN: Under 216

Who the hell is we, you have a frog in your pocket?

@robert4091

 "We" in this context is just me, its a writing habit I've picked up from years spent reading financial analyst reports, who never use non singular pronouns when referring to themselves, I assume for professionalism reasons. They'll always say "in our opinion, the price of oil will be......" Or "we think AAPL is a good buy at current price...." And never "in my opinion" or "I think" etc.

But in any case, which pronouns I use in posts seems much less important than the picks I'm making, which ar currently sitting around 65% win rate over almost 40 bets, and done in a way that doesn't allow me to bullshit or pad my stats. I can almost guarantee there's no habdicapper here with that kind of success rate, and if I'm wrong, by all means link me to their picks  (of course, it doesn't count if we just have to take on their word for it, their picks would have to be done in a way that makes their picks clear BEFORE any games start)

seriously your a Dick dude

guys killing it and your upset over his grammar get a life

that was for robert4091

I see a lot of unders today.

@PAZ

 lol yup I knew who you meant ??

Also, just wanted to add to something I said above regarding line moves.

So using the Por @ Den game, our line was 208. It opened at 216, which is why our bet was (and remains) under 216, which means we captured an outstanding 8 pts if value. But if you're just reading this now and wondering if you should bet, no, you shouldn't. Now that the Vegas line has come down to sit exactly on ours at 208, we can surmise that there's no more edge left to play. In other words, the Vegas line has become more efficient, and any line at its most theoretical efficient is just a 50/50 coin toss, which means there's no edge to play, because making a 50/50 bet with the vig is a losing proposition. However, if the line had only dropped to, say, 213, it's def not too late to take the under 213 as the model suggests there's still value to be found in that bet.

And just as a side note unrelated to my official picks on here, in real life i've already bet the over at 208 which locks in at least a push on this game, but also gives us a huge 8 pt window where we can win both the over AND under on the same bet, although for the purpose of this exercise, Ill only count the original bet at under-216

 @Ridemypwnie

Yup that's been a trend for the algorithm all year, and (not coincidentally) the 'under' bet has been my most profitable bet all season. My assumption is that the models the Vegas books are using factors in previous season data, which mine doesn't. Scoring is down across the board this year by almost 6 pts/game vs last season. That would mean that any model that factors in historical averages would assume that the low scores are anamolies and will eventually revert to the mean and will come in with high totals. This isn't a bad assumption, in general mean reversion is a core concept of any stats-based model, mine included. And if that mean reversion occurs, my model will factor that in. But if there's a specific reason for the low scoring, than mean reversion may never occur and so far Vegas assumption that it will has proved quite profitable

I applaud your effort TheBetGuy. There are actually a handful of long time posters here that have accurate, transparent record keeping, AussieDownUnder, McWestie, GTD to name a few. Good luck on your quest it's nice to read someone with good grammar and punctuation however NBA is an entirely different beast unto it's own where models and algorithms won't make a difference b/c it doesn't factor in when players or teams take the night off or referee trendencies. It's the biggest schill game going now that gambling is becoming legal everywhere. You have 3 days left to try and convince people to sign up for your magic elixir, after today's results that may be more difficult... best of luck.