NBA BREAKDOWN Sunday 03/27 (9 games)

The line is off since Love might play in this one tonight.  Either way, Celtics are similar to the Knicks right now:  the public is in love with them but they’re too inconsistent right now, and aren’t playing good team basketball.  I know first-hand as I had ‘em last game, when they blew a large 4th quarter lead to lose the game. Celtics are going on the road here for a 4 game trip, so maybe it will help them get their ‘mojo’ back.  I have this one at -7 Celtics, so I’d be very curious to see what this # opens up at.  Keep in mind that in the first meeting, Celts were -8 point favorites at home.  (SA = -2 on the road) They won that one by 3 points.  O/U in the first meeting was 204 (U).  With Celtics playing 9 straight to the UNDER, not sure how you can even consider the Over here, unless the opener is really low.  Leans:  Celtics (line pending of course) and the UNDER (due to the current trend in Boston games).

Blazers @ Thunder -5 O/U: 192.5

Both teams are 4-1 their last 5 games, both are playing some really good D right now, and both teams have made trades to improve their overall roster.  These 2 played very early in the season (November) with Okie City winning both by a total of 3 points.  Portland was -6 point home favorite (SA: PK on the road) in the first game and +2 point dog in the rematch in Oklahoma City.  Today the line is +5.  Hmm.  Are the Thunder 3 points better now than they were earlier in the season and/or are Portland worse?  No doubt Thunder improved after the trade for Perkins but so did Portland by adding G-Wall.  This is a ‘double-revenge’ game for the Trailblazers.  The O/U’s in those first 2 games were: 194 O and 193.5 O.  This total opened lower than the previous 2, even though both earlier games went OVER.  The bookies know that the public handicaps games by looking at the most current past results and assuming the same thing will happen again in the future, yet they still opened this one lower.  I do expect a low scoring, defensive battle in this one but was hoping for a few more points.  Leans:  Blazers and UNDER.

Wizards @ Warriors -10.5 O/U: 217

4th game of a 5-game roadie for the Wizards as the Warriors are playing their 2nd in a row at home.  This Warriors team is a completely different ‘animal’ on their own home-court and is usually very difficult to fade when they play in Oakland.  They dispatched Toronto 138-100 in their last game, who are similar to Washington in the fact that they play no defense and have a number of younger players contributing major minutes.  Wizards are on ‘revenge’ here as they lost at home to GSW earlier in March, by 4 points.  They were PK in that game.  With standard adjustment (SA) you’d expect them to be +6 point dogs on the road.  Not so.  I have them at +8.5 actually, so even by my numbers this line is way inflated.  Even so, can anyone really back Washington on the road right now?  The O/U was 212 in that first game and the UNDER came through by 4 points.  Obviously the bookmakers are expecting a higher scoring game in this one.  Leans:  Wizards (ONLY b/c Warriors are way over-valued here…Keep In Mind that I wouldn’t touch the Wiz on the road even if they were getting 20+ points in this one….well, 20+ I prob would actually, but you get the point!) and the OVER.

Hornets @ Lakers -8.5 O/U: 189

Playing their first game without David West, the Hornets beat the Suns on the road.  It was actually pretty impressive, and the ‘injured-star-angle’ at its finest.  Now they get to travel to LA to play the Champs in the 2nd game without West.  Won’t be easy to win this one and I don’t’ think they will.  The question is, will they stay within the number here?  Hornets have ‘triple-revenge’ angle in this one.  In addition, Lakers are hosting Dallas, but that game is 4 days away so not sure how big of a ‘look-ahead’ that really is. Last time these teams played in LA the line was -7.5 Lakers.  So now it’s only 1 point higher, accounting for the West injury.  The line is fairly accurate in this one.  The O/U’s in the first 3 meetings were:  190.5 O; 188.5 O; 188 O.  Actually 4 of the last 5 in LA between these 2 squads have gone over.  In addition, both teams are giving up over 100 points per game in their last 5.  Known as defensive juggernauts, neither is playing like one right now.  Leans: Lakers and OVER.

Mavericks @ Suns PK O/U: 208.5

After dispatching the Jazz in Utah, Mavs are playing their 2nd game of a 6-game road trip.  They are playing 2nd of a b2b and 3rd game in 4 nights.  Suns are coming off a home loss to an undermanned Hornets squad missing David West so will be looking to get back on a ‘winning’ track.  They do have ‘double-revenge’ angle here as they’ve lost to the Mavs both times this season.  Actually, Dallas is 7-2 SU and  6-3 ATS over Phoenix in the past couple of years.  O/U’s in the first 2 meetings were: 212.5 (U) and 205 (O).  The book-makers opened this one right in between of the previous 2.  With the way that Phoenix is playing D right now, and the fact that Dallas is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, OVER is worth a look.  Leans:  PASS on the side and OVER.

bodio, you use "revenge" pretty much in every game. do you have a statistic for revenge, double revenge and triple revenge. because pretty much every game "has revenge written on it for team X" -> usually there are not a lot of teams that sweep their series with any teams, so it is obvious that 80% are "revenge" games. do you think that wizards care about "revenge" tonight against the Warriors? I mean, wizards should play with "revenge" on their minds every game, but still they lost like 55 games or so...