NBA Bubble Playoffs.........................2020 Style

Bucks +6 over Heat --- 1.2 units

we add additional unit with the inflated line

I got +5.5....lets go claw

1-1 ATS, LOST 1.3 UNITS 

Bucks were right there at the end to cover the inflated line but could not make a shot, same ole story once the defense really crack-down on them , nobody could create off the dribble, at times they found it difficult just to pass the ball to a teammate.

Lakers did what they should of done, take control of the series. The line fell down to -4 , wow, would of added another unit as that made it a large line adjustment, unfortunately wasn't paying attention to it. Lakers likely headed for big showdown with the Clippers.

MY LINES.....................................

Raptors -.75 over Celtics

Clippers -4.15 over Nuggets

We don't use my lines in closeout games. Instead we back the closeout team "IF" they are clearly the better team, this series is evenly matched, in these cases we'd  look for the Raptors to stay alive tonight.

Clippers off 2 ATS losses, good spot for Clippers, even better since Clippers were in regression mode and now should be coming out of it. My line indicates the value is all on Nuggets, but here we'll back the Clippers in this spot with a small play, if we lose we'll up our play next game on Clippers. 

Raptors +3.5 over Celtics --- 1.1 units

Clippers -8 over Nuggets --- 1.1 units

Public are on other side    I like this

Bucks were dreadful, they were right there to cover that line at the end but couldn't buy a basket.

2-0 ATS, won 2 units

past 4 days since last update --- games ... 4-1 ATS, won 2.7 units...................losing only on the Bucks game 5.

Raptors/Celtics playout just like I thought they would as 2 evenly matched teams going to game 7. Will likely lean with Celtics game 7.

Clippers coming out of regression got the job done and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Clippers easily the better team.

MY LINES........................................

Lakers -3.98 over Rockets

Lakers off 2 ATS wins, not the best spot for Lakers, let's see how the public plays this game since Lakers are off 2 ATS wins, will they bite and drive the line up ?  my line indicates value on Rockets , "IF" they drive the line up we'll take the Rockets, "IF the line goes down we'll pass.

Starting to heat up....

Would be interested to hear your opinion on LAL vs Houston.

Have a feeling Houston might win...

Rockets +5.5 over Lakers --- 1.1 units

GL theclaw always a Good read mah man

0-1 ATS, lost 1.1 units

MY LINES.........................................

Raptors -.75 over Celtics

Clippers -4.15 over Nuggets

Game 7, teams up 2-0 go on to win series a high % of time, teams up 3-2 go on to win series a high % of time. Based on how the series has played out at this point says Celtics should get game 7. Celtics the better team in PR II which we don't use to make my line. These teams are so evenly matched when we use PR I & PR II.  If you did nothing more then just watch the games, Celtics seem the obvious choice, the obvious choice does result in wins many times but loses many times as well.

By watching games Heat were the obvious choice over the Bucks and won, so will obvious choice win again ? Shooting efficiency margin favors Raptors  3.68% to Celtics 2.56%, over 1% and that team  1% or better  wins series  far more often.  Celtics are borderline championship quality key stats, Raps although 2cd best in league in shooting efficiency margin, better then Clippers and Lakers BUT are a weak rebounding team and weak rebounding teams don't win series over teams with balance needed to obtain championship quality key stats as the Celtics are borderline to having.

Can only go one way here and it's the Celtics.

Clippers off just 1 ATS win, great spot for Clippers, generally the series winner will cover 2 straight at some point in series, teams like the Clippers are very good plays in closeout games, but game 5's are not as good since with many games left yet there may not be same sense of urgency we'd find in a game 6.

We''ll back Clippers with a small play, if we go to game 6 we'll come with our biggest play of playoffs thus far.

Celtics -2.5 over Raptors --- 1.1 units

Clippers -8 over Nuggets --- 1.1 units

In with both Letsgo!! BOL

1-1 ATS, lost .1 units

MY LINES.....................................

Lakers -3.98 over Rockets 

Lakers off 3 ATS wins, and a game 5 closeout game, not a good spot for the Lakers. 

In closeout games we back closeout team "IF" they are clearly the better team, Lakers clearly the better team, over 3 pts better  with both PR's, but game 5's are not the best closeout games to back them and coming off 3 ATS wins is not a good spot for Lakers.

Rockets +6.5 over Lakers --- 1.1 units

MY LINES......................................

Celtics -1.7 over Heat

Celtics off a game 7, Heat off a game 5 win over Bucks.

Teams off a game 7 not playing a top team with championship quality key stats are good plays to make in game 1, Heat are not championship quality.

Celtics better in both PR's by over 1.5 pts and Celtics are better in shooting efficiency by 1%, 2.56% to Heat's 1.56%, teams 1% or better in all 3 are high probability plays to win the series. Celtics also have borderline championship quality key stats and Heat do not, once again this produces high probability series wins.

Celtics should grab control of series in game 1. This series shouldn't be as close as series with Raptors.

Celtics -1.5 over Heat --- 2.2 units

I like the Celtics as well..Good Luck claw

0-1 ATS, lost 1.1 units

MY LINES ....................................

CLIPPERS -4.15 OVER NUGGETS

Clippers off a SU & ATS loss and in a 2cd closeout game in game 6. Great, great spot for Clippers, we are coming with our largest play of the playoffs thus far on Clippers.

Clippers -8.5 over Nuggets --- 4.4 units

should of gotten down on this earlier at -8, boy oh boy if a late long miracle 3 goes in and Clips win by 8 , that'd be brutal. Clips should roll by double digits in this game.