OKC -5 for 5 units
I wanted to back OKC in this game regardless, though I was a little surprised the veteran and NBA/Olympic champion players on Milwaukee not only didn't make them favorite (which I didn't expect either tbh) but made them a whopping 5 pt dog. With Giannis, and Dame Time, the wily vet Holliday?
But I'm basing this pick off a new stat based formula I'm using for 'big' games especially. I came upon this playing a different sport (college football) where i tried to pick the winners if the conf title games just based on defense (bc Defense wins championships, right?) it didn't work well at all, but i went back and found one that did work almost 100% and the one loss was by a last second FG. Unfortunately i had to figure it out after the scores were final. And it's actually so obvious but hey, I'll know it for NCAA title games next year, and I think it will be useful in bowls too (but not AS useful, because bowls are joke - even worse joke now with not only coaches but players moving all over the place. Title games that doesn't happen as much, plus there's less time off and this angle is some what momentum recent resutls based)
Anyway, without revealing the exact nature of this capping tool I am using going forward the play on it tonight is actually quite strong and there's no need to be uncomfortable laying a full 2.5 baskets tonight - hence the 5 uni5 play.
I know some guys will try and cap this based on who has young guys that need the cash, etc. that's not how i am looking at it, and tbh that's probably even enough anyway.
Hot Forum Topics
