NBA Finals Game 3 Winner = 2011 NBA Champion?

What a rousing, gutsy performance by the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2. If you didn’t believe this year’s NBA Playoffs may be the best ever, then I hope Thursday Night went a long way in making you a believer.

Over the next 48 hours, the media will reinforce this statistic: when the series is tied 1-1 roughly 74% of teams that win Game 3 go on to win the Series.

This year's results:

Round 1
-Orlando Magic/Atlanta Hawks 1-1. Atlanta Hawks won Game 3 and won the series.
-San Antonio Spurs/Memphis Grizzlies 1-1. Memphis Grizzlies won Game 3 and won the series.
-Los Angeles Lakers/New Orleans Hornets 1-1. Los Angeles Lakers won Game 3 and won the series.

Round 2
-Memphis Grizzlies/Oklahoma City Thunder 1-1. Oklahoma City Thunder lost Game 3 but won the series.
-Chicago Bulls/Atlanta Hawks 1-1. Chicago Bulls won Game 3 and won the series.

Round 3
-Dallas Mavericks/Oklahoma City Thunder 1-1. Dallas Mavericks won Game 3 and won the series.
-Miami Heat/Chicago Bulls 1-1. Miami Heat won Game 3 and won the series.

Round 4
-Miami Heat/Dallas Mavericks 1-1.  (Result: Pending)

So far in this year's playoffs, this trend is running at an 85.7% clip.

This trend presents a golden opportunity for bettors. If you believe the Miami Heat will win the NBA Championship, then according to this trend, the belief is that they will win Game 3. In terms of odds, there is better value with Miami set as a +135 underdog for Game 3 than there is with Miami being set as a -135 Series Future favorite if you believe Miami takes home the crown.

Obviously, the same is true if you believe Dallas will win the series. However, I would recommend taking Dallas as a +105 underdog for a Series Future if you believe they will be NBA Champs VS the -155 favorite they’ve been set at for Game 3.

The trend is not running at 100%, but this is a nice starting point if you’ve begun analyzing wagers for Game 3 of the NBA Finals.

Well I guess the MAVS will be the champions because there is NO WAY they lose SUNDAY. NO fricken way.

I'll go one step further, this will be closer to a blowout than a close contest. Mavs are gonna rub it in their classless punk ass faces. Besides after seeing them around town all weekend,  I assure the HEAT will be reminded why AMERICA hates them and their cocky asses

 Thanks SJP

@Crusher13

Best of luck.

This is the type of thinking that results in a lot of people losing their money and sportsbooks making a lot of money.  You may be right, but we see this way too often favoring the books.

@aggieaccountant

I agree. Miami has cost a lot of people money in the playoffs this year based entirely on their dislike for LeBron and Co.

Also, each game is an entity of its own. Miami collapsing in Game 2 does not necessarily equal a Game 3 loss.

Funny how 6 minutes can turn around a whole series...new found hope, confidence and a belief in winning. Everything up until that point for the Mavs was tough, real tough. If the Mavs wind up winning the whole thing Miami can simply look back to those 6 minutes cause instead of destroying their opponent they opened the door and gave new hope to a veteran team who was looking for any sign of it and now they have it and that is dangerous for Miami.  

@DJMakeitRain
It seems like most people think Dallas will win Game 3.

You know what that means . . .

Hate to add anything productive to this guys threads, but...

In the 2-3-2 series format (since 1985), when the NBA Finals is tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the series on all 10 occasions.

@TheVag

Good insight.

TheVag...good one.

"The Mavs/Heat line doesn't make sense to me"

 

Why, the line is the same as Game 1

 

"Cause of his hurt finger"

 

Dirk's finger

Sarah, hate to say but I think your math isn't quite right .... 

I believe that number is 11 out of 11.

@ZonaCats

I was going off of this year's data on that statement (roughly 86%). I should have been more clear on that.

it's homerism at its worst

I too, have been a victim of it

It's apparent now that the Heat is going to win this series. Well, I'm going to say it now - if Miami starts rolling off championships, I'm not going to watch the NBA anymore. I've never disliked any team more in any sport. There's too much hubris and douchebaggery for me to handle. I'd rather watch hockey than the a**hole Heat enjoy success.

from another post- hmmmmmm

You're correct it is 11 out of 11

 

11 out of 11 in the NBA Finals? Heat backers at +135 should lock it up. The line is dropping at the sportsbooks I've looked at.

I watched the sportscentre last nite & I think they said after the 2-3-2 format in the final starts, whoever won gm 3 won the championship everytime so far.

BOL to yr bets Sarah

@happyshine

Crazy, right?!

I already have guaranteed profits from this series (Miami In-Season Future hedged with Dallas To Win NBA Finals), but I think this is a great opportunity to win some money.

Best of luck!

Before making any wager on the COLD, I suggest you read this analysis

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101068940

@ZonaCats

After hearing the 11 out of 11 statistic for Game 3s, it only strengthens my theory on taking Miami in Game 3 (if you think Miami wins it all).