NBA Friday

1-0 last night
15-3 in 9 days



You all know what i'll be playing. No official line out yet but somebody posted:

MIA -3
Total: 194.5

Wade does seem very much affected by his whole messy divorce situation which now has him fighting for custody of his 2 sons. Wade was obviously not himself vs Detroit, a team he usually shows up for, only scoring 10 pts. Though it should be noted Miami have been something like 6-0 SU (not sure ATS)  when Wade scores below 20 pts. Which means his team mates have really stepped up and helped him out when he's needed them. Miami blew out Detroit by 17 pts.

Indiana have really stepped up in this stretch of the season only losing 3 games of their last 10 & have covered all but 2 games one of wich was a push. Miami have only lost 2 games of their last 10 covering all but 4 games one of wich was a push. Those non covers were against Orlando, Spurs, Raps and push against the Bobcats.

I think Miami may sweep Indiana here with Miami winning the last 3 meetings this season by an average of 26 pts but i have them winning by about 1-2 pts. Miami players have really improved, everybody now knows their roles and players such as Carlos Arroyo, Wright, Q-rich & J.O. are ballin'. Personally loving the way Arroyo has been playing as their PG, his setting up his team mates well, setting up their offense effectively and is nailing those jumpers. If Miami were rd dogs i may play them but if they are faves i may just lay off we'll see what the opening line is and check the movements.


What i am looking at is the total. Indiana has gone OVER only 3 times in their last 10. While Miami have only gone OVER 3 times with 1 push in their last 10 games. Miami O/U record for the season is 30-43-2  while Indiana are 32-41-2. Miami rd games O/U record is 13-22-2 while Indiana's O/U record @ home is 15-19-2. Indiana seem to be playing better defense of late only allowing an average of 92 ppg in their last 5 games which is about 8-9 pts lower than their average. While Miami are allowing an average of 82.4 ppg in their last 5 games which is about 12-13 pts lower than what they have allowed for the season.

Miami

• Under is 5-0-1 in Heat last 6 overall.
• Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
• Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Indiana

• Under is 7-0 in Pacers last 7 vs. NBA Southeast.
• Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Under is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 overall.

If the total is around 194 i'll be happy to bet the UNDER. The last 3 meetings have gone UNDER even though the last 2 meetings Miami scored well over 100 pts. Miami have only scored in triple digits in their last 10 games 3 times which includes an OT game against the Magic. I have this around 192 mark.

Miami 97 - Indiana 95

Good luck tonight will check in for final plays

Sucks have wade in my fantasy team and i am in the semis need big night out of him.

Head to Head

• Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
• Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Indiana.

TY Gennaro53! Wade usually has a good game vs Indiana averaging around 30 pts. Hopefully he can clear his head and focus.

Opened @:

IND -2
Total: 193.5

Well you were pretty dead on with the over under.

Down to -1.5 already? This may be pk in a few hrs.

Plays:

MIA +1.5

I said i would lay off if it opened Miami as rd faves since they are not i'm going to back my Heat team to continue their winning ways and Sweep this Pacers squad. Miami are hungrier with more at stake. Miami have been in playoff mode since Wade came back from his injury. Miami by 2 pts.

UNDER 193.5

A little too close/sharp and i should wait as i have a feeling the public will raise this total but i may not have the time to wait. Miami has been winning games not with their offense but with their Defense. Coach Spo preaches Defense & has continued this philosophy from Riley. Miami Heat players have finally committed to the philosophy & have been doing a great job executing it. As i stated Miami have been in playoff mode for some time now and they are fine tuning their Defense for the playoffs. I doubt we'll see any body score in triple digits here.

Good luck 3ball. had some bad picks last 2 nights. Looking to get back on track. Like the Miami pick. Under looks good too.

Cheers FlynPro

Always go with your own instincts. With a streak like this i'm due for a bad day so be cautious.

I'm cautious!  But thanks for you picks!

Looking at under 1st half also. What do u think, and do you have any info or stats on that? Thanks

Sorry i couldn't get this on time. There was a poster here who observed Miami goes Over in the 1stQ's that's all i know.

aarrgghh Miami down by 10. I knew i should have just stuck to playing the total.

PLEASE GET BEASLEY OFF. HE IS SINGLE HANDEDLY LOSING US THIS GAME.

2 mins left, c'mon Miami keep this lead gentlemen

OT will most prob kill my UNDER  aaarrggghhhhh

oh god why

The total was my strongest play here. you go on a streak, do everything right, instincts in tact about to go 2-0 and you get screwed like this. Frustrating.

I feel your pain 3Ball. I didnt have money on the total but still thought it was the right play...and it was. Cant always handicap a game going to OT. Sometimes, you just got to roll the dice and hope it ends in regulation. Dont let it get you too frustrated. If it happened all over again, I still would see it as the right play.

MIA +1.5
UNDER 193.5

1-1
16-4 in 10 days

Instead of 17-3 the OT spoiled the streak. So disappointed.