NBA Picks and Why

Haven't posted in a while - hopefully more data better results.    Let's look at some numbers:

-4  Minn    6

    Orl      26

Minn opens up as a 4 pt fav (madduxsports.com)  currently 5.5 .    I give Min a rating of 6 and Orlando 26 (lower the better on paper)  .    The ratings are a combination of a variety of factors (i.e, assists turnovers def, sched strength etc.)   When you have an opening line of 4 and these ratings often the home team covers and often wins it straight up.   My Plays:

1. Orlando   +5.5   

2. Ny - 12.5  

3. Tor  +4.5   

4. small Parlay   Orlando  + 175   to Tor +155   Pays 6 to 1

Good all

hey could you talk more on your rating system how you get the raiting 4 and 26 and pick the 26 rated

Great info. GL tonight 

@smellieflower

 It's looking and what I consider the key drivers of a game and rating things accordingly and coming up with a composite.   I find looking at just raw data doesn't always work out.

NBA you gotta be cautious if players are sitting out - I try to stay away from those games and make notes etc.    I have a spreadsheet where I record everything, over the years patterns develop and that's what your trying to pin point and exploit - more data better results hopefully.     

BOL to ya

@Fuse

 Thanks bud back at ya

i couldnt see them losing by 6 or like what happened tonight but my model picked the score prefectly magic under 100, is was like 84 to 107 wolves winning but the way the nba has been going, is a joke and me not trusting the model brutal.

@TheBuddah

@TheBuddah

I have always figured that you record data in various categories and then look for the patterns. 

I've enjoyed seeing you posting over the years, thank you for your service.

@TheBuddah

@smellieflower

 Good pick.   Sometimes it's dead wrong - so it's record and process improvement.  Glad Toronto and Ny came thru.  

@Yessss88, @Jerseyshore88, @Macwestie1

Thanks for the love I appreciate.

@digitaldude

Thanks bud.   It takes a lot of effort, but it's my passion - I appreciate your kind words.