NBA picks, Thursday, January 5, 2012

Wednesday: 2-2, -0.65 units
YTD: 30-24, +4.23 units

Moving on to Thursday, still chugging along at right around 55% YTD, hope to keep it going and finish around the 57% figure is my goal...

1. Portland Trailblazers -3.5 (-110), 2.2 to win 2

Really like this POR line here coming off of a big win on the road against OKC. Any NBA fan knows the Rose Garden is a very difficult place to play for opposing teams. POR has fresher legs (younger team on the whole plus they've only played 5 games to date in this season as opposed to LAL's 7 games. LAL is still searching for their first road win of the year, and POR is gonna be a tough place to get it. POR has covered this number at home in all three games this year and LAL has yet to cover this number on the road this year.

Let's look at recent season LAL games in POR:

4/8/11: LAL loss by 7
2/23/11: LAL wins by 5 in OT
2/6/10: LAL wins by 17
1/8/10: LAL loss by 9
4/10/09: LAL loss by 8
3/9/09: LAL loss by 17
4/8/08: LAL loss by 9
2/29/08: LAL loss by 8

Last 8 LAL games in POR: 6 losses by an average of 9.66 points with two wins by an average of 11 points. If you think that LAL can cover this number, might as well take them on the ML. I am not sold on LAL yet and think that POR matches up with them pretty well, especially underneath. Camby is always solid at protecting the rim and should be able to give Bynum some problems, while Pau will have his hands absolutely full with LaMarcus Aldridge, who is an absolute beast. Don't forget about old man Kurt Thomas off of the bench either. He believes that POR is a title contending team and I have no reason to doubt him. I imagine that Artest will be put on Wallace, but I'd definitely favor Wallace on both sides of the ball there. Wes Matthews will make Kobe work on the defensive end of the ball and Ray Felton is a far better PG and will eat Derek Fisher and Steve Blake alive. POR has the stronger bench as well. I think this number should be much closer to POR -5.5 but its a LAL game so they get a few extra points on their side due to perception.

Good luck to everyone

Blazers...My POD as well.. 

I will likely be adding a play on MIA when the number is released at bookmaker if the line is really ATL +3.5

GL, Like them plays

Are you still going to add Miami if LeBron or Dwayne sits out?

Probably will be on them if Wade sits out, unlikely to be on them if LeBron sits out. Would be a strong play if both do play.

Boy, how wrong was I about the Pacers last night? They got smashed.

I actually think Batum will draw Kobe for a majority of the game...and his length will cause some problems for Kobe. Bynum is going to abuse Camby. But other than that, I would favor Portland at the other three starting spots and really like Jamal Crawford providing instant offense off the bench

GL Kap...but I'm on the other side

Everyone is either going to be on the Blazers -3.5 or the Lakers ML

Vegas makes most money off a 2 point Blazer win

I can't believe I'm going back to this well... ugh....

2. Milwaukee Bucks -3 (-110), 1.65 to win 1.5

Horrific, horrific scheduling spot for SAC here, back to back to back and fifth game in sixth days. Their legs should be good and shot.  I backed MIL in a similar spot against a more talented DEN squad a few days ago, and now MIL gets another team in a similar situation. I am going to keep fading teams in SAC's scheduling spot this season.

Kapono, I like your break down and I think the blazers can match up with the lakers size . However are you at all concerned with Los Angeles coming off such a dominant second half performance that the blazers lack of Super star may come to haunt them late in the game?

Not really. I don't understand what your fascination is with "superstars" to be honest. Other teams without superstars (aka a team like DEN) can still beat a team with "superstars". Even so, I would argue that POR does have a superstar in LaMarcus Aldridge.

Let's see how LAL does on the road in one of the toughest arenas in the league where they have dropped 6 of their last 8 by an average of nearly 10 points. POR matches up well with LAL (much better than the HOU team they beat down in the 2H), I'll take my chances with them at home

The Lakers may well cover. But I have no idea how you can use the Rockets game as a reason to take them. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league, plays zero defense, and is a horrible matchup for any team with a post game. They gave up 113 to Memphis and 117 to the Clips last night

I've seen Miami -2.  Is Wade out? Lebron out?

BTW I agree with the portland play just asking..

Kaponofor, Bogut might be sitting out again, just a heads up.

Bol kap im liking rtland and mil too, i cant believe im asking for punishment w the bucks again.  Hope bynum doesnt go off tonight but i really like this blazers squad at home this yr.  

Yeah I saw that... doesn't effect my play because its more really a fade of this scheduling spot as opposed to anything else.

Portland at home

kaponofor3 i agree on milwaukee. bc i think their the better team. and they have a team that has played together awhile. and i like that early in this season. but i really think people are over-stating these scheduling issues back-to-back, 4games in 5nights etc.  def is factored in to coaching, but at this point these guys are still fresh enough/and hungry enough i thnk.