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NBA picks, Wednesday, January 26, 2011

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Legend
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Posted: #26
bol kap
 
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Posted: #28

gd lk kap!

 
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Kap,good thing we bet that game early yesterday,17.5 was perfect,lol I did take them sec half also getting +3.5 more,and sec half under.Should of done like you and made it the only game I played,lol.
 
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1. Detroit Pistons +2 (-105), 1.05 to win 1

Wednesday: 0-1, -1.05 units
YTD: 108-96-2, +11.41 units
 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



Sure.

Denver is a completely different squad on the road, especially against sub-par competition. Detroit is a surprisingly effective home squad as well as their 12-9 SU home record shows. Denver is on a road B2B and on their 3rd game in 4 days. DET has some momentum coming off of that road win against Orlando and has beaten some solid squads recently (ORL, PHX, DAL).

Some of the road trends for DEN are hysterically bad. 14-32-5 ATS in their last 51 games versus a team with a losing SU record, 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 road games, 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a road favorite, 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 road games versus a team with a winning home record, 10-27-6 ATS in their last 43 games following an ATS win, 6-17-5 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 10 points, 5-16 ATS in their last 21 as a small road favorite, and 1-6 in their last 7 games on the tail end of back to backs.

DET is 7-3 ATS in their  last 10 games versus a team with a winning SU record, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a small underdog, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as a home dog...

The numbers tell me this is a play on Detroit or a no play.

I've been against the Nuggets on their last two road outings as well (2 losses for me). I made a lot of cash betting this way earlier in the season but it seems they're starting to get their shit together and focus a bit more on their achilles heel (road games). Might be time to stay away from this betting strategy for a while.

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