NBA Player Props 3/27

HOU Brooks o13.5 P -129 PB

I believe the end of season weird minutes/rotations and team motives have been a big contributor to this strong downturn. Figuring out the team motive/game plan or minutes has been much tougher than choosing plays. Another classic yesterday getting Towns u28.5 in the morning and he closes 24.5/25.5, I'll take that bet every day all day. I can't do anything more than capture the best value/lines, in the players hands after that. We'll see how season concludes, I had 1 losing month last season which was April. I finished by picking up around 10u on playoffs where things were more "normal". I will try to launch a filter avoiding teams that are eliminated or tanking. 

SZN: 635-458 | +44.85u | +4.1% ROI 

OKC Dort u12.5 P -145 BV

@emoltzan

 Let's get 'em tonite 

This stuff isn't easy and only gets harder when motivation becomes a factor 

E 

@sportschat

Yep, going to be more selective till playoffs. There's a few plays I'd normally take but can't force with teams eliminated or teammates GTD. 

@Fuse

Gl e lines definitely seemed to have tightened up...still not seeing  much defense being played but totals seem down a bit as well

@D-Town

@dubz4dummyz

It's been a struggle, getting value daily but then schemes/game plans/minutes think differently. I've passed multiple plays today to avoid crap teams or variance outcomes. Going to be a lot more strict until playoffs. 

POR Clingan o18.5 PRA -135 BV

OKC SGA u33.5 P -134 PB

ORL KCP o7.5 P -145 BV

@emoltzan

 Ya certain teams are tanking for sure...some rotation 12-14 players deep vs the normal 8-10

Like the clingan pick...was looking at his and sabonis rebound props expecting them to battle it out on the glass

I follow your props everyday. Yesterday towns hurt me bad. Its my fault got greedy. Long story short keep up the good picks!!!

Thanks for the picks

@rollo123

Yes, that was a tough one to stomach. 28.5 wager down to 24.5/25.5 at close but still lose. I'll take that play every day all day but hard to stomach that one. I've been dealing with these type of losses past month or 2, just treading water barely. 

I should be able to turn it around come playoffs 

OKC Williams o15.5 P -145 BV

UTA Kessler 10+ R + TOR (NHL) ML +105 BV

I'd consider Utah a crap team...fyi..with multiple Williams on OKC, may be a good thing for those who do follow your stuff to designate which one

Yep, I avoided Kessler all day as I looked at his Reb in morning but then forced it in the end. The other Williams would never have a P line that high so it's intuitive.