NBA PLAYOFF TIME..........................................2021

Missed posting on Suns/Clippers game 6 but not surprised Suns won as strong teams can win just as easily at home or on the road when they need a win.

With Freak out Suns likely win the title.

Interesting that Bucks would have been benefited the most from all these injuries but now suffer the same fate.

Crazy the way everything has gone, I don't think we have ever seen so many injuries to top players as we've had this playoffs.

Definitely in my book takes away the title from being as meaningful.

If I was a top player I'd want to go through the best teams and best players on my way to winning the title, that would be far more meaningful to me as a player.

If I beat teams with best players out, well I'd enjoy winning the title but I'd know in my heart I didn't beat the best and it would be less meaningful to me personally as a top player.

My Lines .................

Bucks -7.33 over Hawks

Hawks off SU & ATS win badly needed a win without Superstar Young because being at home they cannot afford losing both home games and expect to win series. They brought a huge amount of focus and energy that Bucks didn't match. Plus players play better at home and they shot the ball very well, game 5 will be Bucks who cannot lose this game and will very likely shoot much better.

Bucks without the Freak, Hawks without Young, Freak is worth more pts but 5 more pts then Young, no possibility of that.

Freak worth maybe 1.5 or 2 more pts , if we say 3 at the most even exaggerating it, so Bucks should be -4.33 to -5.33, if Young  doesn't play the value is all on the Bucks.

That was with line at Bucks -2, but now line bet up to -4, -4.5 which is about right where it should be.

 A big line movement on the Bucks is very concerning for Bucks, to many thinking Bucks cover.

I'll pass on this game.

@theclaw 

with all due respect probably the best thing to do claw but hey it's the Playoffs so some of us are Degenerates you only live once 

MY LINES..............................................

Hawks -.67 over Bucks

Bucks off ATS win and in a close-out game. Very good spot for the Bucks. If both the Freak and Young are out again Hawks would gain about 1.5 pts or be -2.17 which is about where we see the line. But the spot is more important then the line in this situation, all Bucks tonight if Young does not play.

Bucks got the job done game 5. We can see how this team has really matured compared to the past 2 seasons when they looked lost in the clutch. This Bucks team has learned how to win, how to close out tight close games. Now they have more options, guys who can create off the dribble, it's not just the Freak-show driving to the basket anymore.

I'll be on the Bucks tonight to close-out this series if Young does not play which appears more likely he won't, but let's wait-out the line, seems it's more likely to go to 3 and check Youngs status before making a move.

Bucks could very well win even if Young plays but more risky.

Basically we have Bucks tonight for 2 units at  +260  futures play  winning the East but we have 2 shots to get the win.

We lost 5 units on the Jazz so a Bucks series win and we get back our losses on the Jazz with a Bucks title futures at +700 for 2 units still working.

Picks made during the regular season.

Looks like Young is playing tonight. Still like the Bucks to win the game SU, who knows whether he can be effective or not, how much he will play, crap shoot really. But he could go off so we need to respect that but the spot is very good for the Bucks and I think they should get it done tonight.

Will pass on the game.

NBA FINAL........................................Suns VS Bucks

PR I..............

Bucks 6.11

Suns 5.56

Bucks by .55

Teams 1.25 or better are 24-7 at winning the series

PR II............................

Bucks 53.65

Suns 52.77

Bucks by .88

Teams over .75 are 27-7 at winning the title since 1980....79.4%

MY LINES ......................game 1

Suns -3.45 over Bucks

Bucks off 2 ATS wins, not the best of spots but not the worst either. Bucks 0-3 ATS in game 1's this playoffs, good spot for the Bucks.

Suns of a big-blowout 27 pt win, off just 1 big win and ATS win is not a bad spot. Suns 3-0 ATS in game 1's this playoffs, not the best of spots for Suns.

Spot favors the Bucks.

Without the Freak my line should be around 6.5 to 7.5, with the line around 6 to 6.5 I don't see any value on Suns with the spot favoring the Bucks.

If the line goes to 7.5 I will grab the Bucks game 1 in the better spot. 

Bucks know they haven't played well in game 1's and know without the Freak they really have to bring a big game, Suns sitting around for quite some time might get complacent and think this game should be an easy win without the Freak and they have done well in other game 1's.

MY LINES.......................................game 2

Suns -3.45 over Bucks

Finals version of my lines....... Suns -1.45 over Bucks........... team down 1-0  receives 2 pts 

Suns off 2 ATS wins with a big blowout 27 pt win, bad spot for the Suns. Suns did survive 2 of these spots earlier in the playoffs but not very likely they can continue to survive this bad spot.

NBA Finals game 2 my line with a 1.5 difference to closing line from 1992 to 2015................................10-4 ATS------- play on Bucks if line goes to 5 or better

NBA Finals version GAME 2 with a 2.5 diff to closing line and team is off a SU & ATS loss and the team is better in both PR's ......... 8-2 ATS ------ Play is on the Bucks as long as closing line stays 4 or better 

Better rebounding team was 11-2 at covering one of the first 2 games,  haven't updated this recently but points to the Bucks

Rebounding........................

Bucks 51.5%

Suns 49.65%

And if the 2 teams are evenly matched in both PR's they generally will split games 1 & 2, Bucks better in both . The right play is on the Bucks tonight.

Bucks +4.5 over Suns --- 1.1 units

Bucks ML +170 --- 1 unit

0-1 ATS, lost 1.1 units

ML 0-1, lost 1 unit

MY LINES...........................................game 3

Bucks - 8.55 over Suns

NBA Finals Version of my lines...............same line

NBA Finals game 3 with a 2-0 series my line from 92-2020.........................

5-1-1 ATS with a 4.5 or better diff to closing line

5-5 Under a 4.5 diff

As of now we do have a 4.5 or better diff but line needs to stay Bucks -4 or lower

we won in this spot last year on the Heat with a huge 11.33 diff but with Bam and Goran out.

Suns off 3 ATS wins with a big blowout 27 pt win mixed in, bad, bad spot for the Suns. Bucks are a much better team at home then on the road. Bucks  the only play here. 

Let's wait out the line, hopefully it goes down but I wouldn't hold my breath.

I think the Bucks can still come back and win this series but starting to lose a little confidence in this as the Suns playing very well and seem to be the smarter team. But you'd be surprised how much making shots can change a teams results. The Bucks stars just didn't make shots, and that will almost certainly change back home and with the Suns role players not shooting as well on top of that, even Suns stars can have bad shooting games on the road.

Obviously bucks must win the next 2 games to have any shot at winning this series.

Line appears to be moving up to 4.5 which only gives us a 4.05 diff to my line. We need a 4.5 diff.  I still think the right play is on the Bucks with Suns in a bad spot and the Bucks playing much better at home and the Bucks being the better team in both PR's  I can't see Suns taking a commanding 3-0 lead in this series, history does not support this. 

Hopefully the Suns will pick up some support at +4.5 and drive the number back to 4 or even +3.5.

We'll see.

I’m on the Bucks and they very well may and probably will win this game but the series?  Really?  I’m always a big fan of your analytics but have you seen the coaching discrepancy in this series?  Suns in 5/6 imho 

Bucks -4.5 over Suns --- 1.1 units

Ya man, thanks for all your view points. Excellent wager!

1-0 ATS , won 1 unit

both Middleton and Holiday shot much better at home, surprising how things change when you shoot so much better, would expect that to be the same next game. Bucks have not been at their best yet, don't be surprised if they shoot lights out from 3 pt land coming sometime in the near future,

MY LINES...................................game 4

Bucks -4.55 over Suns

NBA Finals version........

Bucks -6.55 over Suns     as we give 2 pts for trailing by 1 game

NBA Finals version  with a 2-1 series and a  2.5 diff to closing line SINCE 92.....................9-4 ATS

when off a SU win ..................5-1 ATS................off a SU loss 4-3 ATS

WITH A 2-1 series and a  1.25 diff to 2.49 DIFF closing line  since 92...................... 2-1  ATS

off a SU win ......2-1 ATS...................off a SU loss .....0-0 ATS

Bucks off SU & ATS win with a big 20 win but not blowout win, good spot for the Bucks as the better teams in PR's do win 2 ATS in back-to-back games  at some point in the series.  Of course Bucks could win games 5 and 6 ATS and get the 2 wins or games 6 and 7, does not have to be games 3 and 4.

Play here is on the Bucks, especially if the line stays 4 or less.  I did see some 4.5's out there but 4's as well. With Bucks -4 we do have a 2.5 pt diff.

Bucks -4 over Suns --- 1.1 units

Possible but regardless of coaching, the Bucks played at a higher level in regular season then the Suns and the team playing at the higher level win the series far more often then not, and in some of those wins it was said the coach was no-where near as good, but in the end the team playing better won.

People like to say the coach is not good mostly when a team has not won with that coach, but many times they have not won because the team was never good enough to win but as soon as that coach that couldn't win has the better team he all of a sudden wins. 

Line still hanging at 4 with some 4.5 . As long as the line hangs at 4 we have a 2.5 pt diff between my line and books line.

What we saw and talked about VS both the Nets and Hawks was how the Bucks learned to gut-out close games in the clutch, something they lacked the past couple of years. If the Bucks are going to win this series they will need to gut-out at least 1 win and maybe 2, we'll likely see them do it at least once even if they lose the series, maybe even tonight. 

I would look for the Bucks to win again tonight and if they do they'll have 2 chances to win 1 road game and hold home court one more time in game 6 and they'll be the champs.

1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

Yep, Bucks gut-out the close, tight game in the clutch and pick-up the win and cover. As we seen VS Nets and Hawks this Bucks team is not the same team from the past 2 years.

Bucks did not shoot very well 40%, Suns shot 51%, a team out-shooting it's opp by over 10% would not lose very often but 17 TO's by the Suns to 5 for Bucks and 17 OFF REBS  for the Bucks to 5 for the Suns did the Suns in. Bucks scored 43 points off those 17 Suns TO's and their own 17 off rebs.

Not likely will the Bucks shoot this poorly the rest of this series. Now Bucks need to win 1 road game in 2 tries and hold home court in game 6 to be Champs.

It's going to be a barn-burner for either team to finish off this series.

MY LINES...........................................game 5

Suns -3.45 over Bucks

Bucks off 2 SU & ATS wins, not a good spot but not a bad spot either, not a spot we could make a play either way.

Line is about where it should be according to my lines. With a 2-2 tied series we don't use my lines but rather back the team to win the series as that team is the very likely game 5 winner.

According to both PR's and with PR II being by a large enough margin  the series winner is the Buck.

However, The Suns were better in the Playoff only PRI but Bucks better in PR II, but of the very key indicators that seem to be the most important, favors the Suns.

I think the Bucks will have a great shot to win this game SU and very well could get it done but we must respect the playoff only key indicators so I will pass on this game tonight.  But feel the Bucks will be in this game with a great shot at the end to win SU.