Posted:
#76
This from a great stats guy FWIW:
These teams have now had 3 meetings in Boston this season. Unfortunately LBJ missed the Dec. game so it's somehwat tainted as a guide, but not completely....
December meeting
148 shots at 35.1%
8 x 3-ptrs made
38 FTs made
32 TOs.
Pierce 2-7 FG - 7 pts
150 pt total
These teams have now had 3 meetings in Boston this season. Unfortunately LBJ missed the Dec. game so it's somehwat tainted as a guide, but not completely....
December meeting
148 shots at 35.1%
8 x 3-ptrs made
38 FTs made
32 TOs.
Pierce 2-7 FG - 7 pts
150 pt total
February meeting
146 shots at 44.5%
10 x 3-ptrs made
39 FTs made
34 TOs.
LBJ & Pierce 11-38 FG - 38 pts
179 pt total
146 shots at 44.5%
10 x 3-ptrs made
39 FTs made
34 TOs.
LBJ & Pierce 11-38 FG - 38 pts
179 pt total
Game 1
143 total shots at 36.3%
8 x 3-ptrs made
36 FTs made
38 TOs.
LBJ & Pierce 4-32 FG - 16 pts
148 pt total
143 total shots at 36.3%
8 x 3-ptrs made
36 FTs made
38 TOs.
LBJ & Pierce 4-32 FG - 16 pts
148 pt total
Shot attempts, FTs & 3s made, TOs commited are all essentially identical - what this speaks to is the pace-of-game comfort zone these 2 teams have when facing one another in Boston (in Cleveland, it's a different matter).
The highest scoring game is the only game to come close to reaching a 45.0% FG shooting number. These are 2 teams that play aggressive D, and the TO numbers witness it.
The highest scoring game is the only game to come close to reaching a 45.0% FG shooting number. These are 2 teams that play aggressive D, and the TO numbers witness it.
So the question for game 2 is - if the pace-of-game comfort zone these 2 teams have established gets repeated a 4th straight time, and the playoff atmosphere once again extends it's influence to "prevent" them coming near shooting 45%+, what's the attraction for taking Over here (even at 177.5)?
You're simply not going to get enough shots put up, shot at a significant enough % mark, to win your bet unless an ungodly amount of FT attempts are both given and made (about 48-50 made, requiring at least 62-65 attempts).
You're simply not going to get enough shots put up, shot at a significant enough % mark, to win your bet unless an ungodly amount of FT attempts are both given and made (about 48-50 made, requiring at least 62-65 attempts).
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