NBA Totals - Friday 2-10-12

YTD: 16-10 / 61.5% (+5.0)

Yesterday's thread: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101265687

Today (Leans):

Philadelphia vs. LA Clippers UNDER 188

Charlotte vs. Chicago OVER 182.5

Detroit vs. New Jersey OVER 187

New York vs. Los Angeles OVER 183.5

Utah vs. Oklahoma City UNDER 201

Would like to get some thoughts on these picks. These are the ones I've picked out, based on my numbers, to research. I will be back later for my final picks, but don't expect any other games outside of these. If anything, the list of final plays will shrink.

I THINK THAT CHICAGO GAME GOES UNDER AGAIN.

THE LAKERS JUST HAD AN OT GAME YESTERDAY SO THAT MAY BE A GOOD POINT TO CONSIDER THE UNDER

GOOD LUCK

Concerning the Lakers/Knicks game:

The Lakers are averaging nearly 93 PPG on back-to-backs with travel inbetween (whether it's home to away, away to home, or away to away). The Knicks are averaging over 97 PPG at home this season and, more specifically (because of injuries), 103 PPG over the last four home games. I don't imagine the Knicks making things too difficult for the Los Angeles offense. But you're correct in taking into account the OT game last night - I see this coming into play with the Laker defense who were battling against the Celtics all night for 4.5 quarters yesterday. The Knicks offense, one way or another, has been more than formidable even without Amare and/or Carmelo; I look for the legs of the Lakers to be worn out and unable to keep up with Lin and the boys.

I've not gotten a chance to look into any of the other games, but this is a lean that I really, really like.

I use several different pieces of information. As far as point totals go, I compare the home offense/defense against the away offense/defense (for example - the Knicks defense at home PPG vs. the Lakers PPG offense on the road). I also average in the average totals for the refs at the game, but the above team-by-team comparison weighs much more heavily on the number I get.

Along with that information, I also take several of what I feel are key offensive and defensive stats and compare them to one another. For example, I may take the Knicks Average Assists per Game versus the Lakers Average Assists per Game Given-up. I look at the difference and depending on how large it is, I either add or subtract a particular number of points from the total that I calculate above.

Outside of all of these pieces of information, I also sit back and try to just get a feel for the game; use my common-sense. For that Denver game last night, I knew that 192 wasn't a realistic total for the game, but it also told me that 211.5 wasn't either. Because Golden State couldn't hold onto a 20 POINT LEAD with FIVE MINUTES TO GO, it got much closer than it needed to be to that 211.5. However, that's just how Golden State is and I absolutely DESPITE betting on their games. If it were any other two teams, I think the total would have been closer to the 204 number that you got.

I've locked in LA Lakers vs. New York OVER 184; I see that the line is already up to 185, so I'm glad I got it when I did.

As for the other leans, the line for the Philadelphia/LA Clippers total is dropping so as of now, consider it removed from the list. I'm also removing the Utah/Oklahoma City lean; neither of these teams has any interest in playing defense and I don't trust them to keep eachother under 100 points.

Without having done much research, outside of the Lakers/Knicks game, I can say that Detroit vs. New Jersey OVER 186 is looking like a bet, especially if the line continues to drop (it is down one point since my original post today).

One other game that has jumped onto my radar based on line movement so far is the Toronto/Boston game. The line is down to 174 and the line I have is 181, so I will have to look into that.

For those interested, here are how all of my games look against the actual line (actual listed here):

Toronto/Boston: 181 (174)

Philadelphia/LA Clippers: 182 (186)

Washington/Miami: 196 (201)

Charlotte/Chicago: 190 (182.5)

Orlando/Atlanta: 183 (182)

Detroit/New Jersey: 200 (186)

Cleveland/Milwaukee: 194 (192)

New York/LA Lakers: 194 (184)

Memphis/Indiana: 185 (184)

New Orleans/Portland: 182 (180.5)

Minnesota/Dallas: 187 (192)

Utah/Oklahoma City: 192 (202.5)

I've locked in Detroit vs. New Jersey OVER 187. It had dropped initially, especially considering it opened at, I believe, 189.5, but has gone back up a point or two, so I'll just grab it now.

These two teams have met each other twice already this season and both games have gone over the posted total. Individually, the Nets have been over the total in six of their last nine games, while Detroit has been over seven out of nine. One particular stat I like about this match-up are the Assist/Turnover Ratios of each defense. Both of these teams give up a lot of assists and don't create many turnovers, allowing opposing offenses to become more efficient with the ball and get in rhythm quicker. It's the same with the eFG% for both defenses - while the offenses certainly aren't shooting the lights out of the ball, the defenses are putting up even less of a fight.

It may be too much trouble but if u cd post ur numbers against actual lines ea day it would be greatly appreciated,  Thx

That wouldn't be a problem at all; thanks for being interested.

GL tonight. I may be in here later to post another play or two.

I'm adding one more play to today's card: Boston vs. Toronto OVER 174.5. This is similar to the reasoning I have for the Lakers/Knicks game. While the Raptors offense is pretty bad, I look for them to take advantage of a tired (and old) Boston defense. However, I do think Boston will be motivated on the offensive end after the abymsal show it put on against the Lakers last night; the defense played well while the offense sputtered a majority of the time.

Considering there are thirteen games tonight, it doesn't make me nervous to have the overs in all three of my plays, especially seeing several unders my system displays (however, not strongly enough to be considered for action). Below is my final card:

LA Lakers vs. New York OVER 174.5

New Jersey vs. Detroit OVER 187

Boston vs. Toronto OVER 174.5

GL to all.

If you were to look strictly at PPG averages for both teams (home or away, as appropriate), your total would be at 195.5. Both teams are right around the 100 PPG mark on offense, while OKC is giving up 98.4 on the road and Utah is giving up just 92.9 at home. This play would be made if I felt I could rely on Utah to slow the game down. Can they do that? I don't know. I'm not a very good judge of what strategies teams like to play from night to night. But it does seem logical that Utah would do this. I mean, if you can't control the floor and the pace at home, where can you at all?

What I don't trust is the attitude of OKC tonight after losing to a bad Sacramento team. If OKC had cruised last night, I would say Utah had a better chance at controlling this game. But a young, hungry team like OKC is likely to come out fast and hard tonight. OKC is averaging 98.4 PPG after each of their losses this year. If you wanted to base your opinion on the total strictly from that, you'd then need to look at who you think will win the game. If you're counting on the Thunder to score 98-99 points, that means the Jazz win by a very small margin or that the Thunder can control the Utah offense (which is very good at home).

Something interesting I just found...

Oklahoma City, after a loss, has hit the UNDER four out of five times this season.

Take it or leave it; I thought it was interesting though.

That's just because it's Friday. Although I do suppose I could get some more feedback in my threads if I included that dirty four letter L-word in the title.

GL on your plays tonight. I like that Nets pick - they'll be wanting to return the favor for the other night, losing to Detroit at home.

LA Lakers vs. New York OVER 174.5  ??