All Forums | NBA Betting

NEW NBA TOTALS SYSTEM!

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 39659
Posts: 260
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2007
Posts: 148
Posted: #176
you need considerate when the home team have it favorite more than 8 and 180 - 195 point go to over
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 1065
Posted: #177
Quote Originally Posted by Shiek1995:

 Updated Card

YTD 18-12  + 6 UNITS

11/11

4 System # 2 plays

Philly @ NJ under  2 units

Den @ Mil under  2 units

Port @ Minn under 2 units

Dallas @ SA under 2 units

2 System # 3 Plays

Clev @ Orl under  3 units

Utah @ Bos under 3 units

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 1065
Posted: #178

11/12

No system plays

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 119
Posted: #179
I have done the research for the over/under system plays that fall under the 180-192, home favorite guidelines. So far this NBA season, it is 16-8, hitting at 67% and yielding 7.2 units. I used the numbers from the scores section of covers and tracked through each day of the season so far.
 
I have an excel spread sheet highlighting each game that fits these guidelines, as well as the record for each team that has played in games that fit this system. I used the IF function to highlight the HOT and COLD teams as well. For instance, games in which Milwaukee are involved in that fall under this system are 4-0. Same goes for Detroit, and Portland is 3-1.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 119
Posted: #180
TEAMAtlantaBostonCharlotteChicago
WIN LOSS % H/C
1 0 100% HOT
3 2 60% COLD
0 2 0% COLD
2 0 100% HOT
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 119
Posted: #181

Not sure why that didnt format correctly, but just put the team column at the front..... it should give you an idea of my spreadsheet.....I have this for each team, and will continue to monitor the progree of this system.

 

Sorry for filling up the thread, just thought it was relevant and useful.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 1065
Posted: #182
Quote Originally Posted by dannestor222:

TEAMAtlantaBostonCharlotteChicago
WIN LOSS % H/C
1 0 100% HOT
3 2 60% COLD
0 2 0% COLD
2 0 100% HOT

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2005
Posts: 41
Posted: #183

I use opening lines from scoresandodds.com

Boston 10.5    191.5 was the open. Thats what makes it a #3.\

Looks like you should take in consideration what the line is when you put your wager in...

I got lucky and did not bet the Orl/Cleveland game because orlando wasnt favored at ten minutes to game time from my book.

I also had the under in the OKC/LAC game which fits the 180-192 system play.. 

Get them tomorrow Shiek...

 

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 52
Posted: #184

Dan

 

Thanks for your work on the spreadsheet  and monitoring useful info

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2009
Posts: 180
Posted: #185
   I Like your system Shiek ,,, so far so good......

11/12   over Mia
under lakers

good luck............
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 724
Posted: #186
I have been following and betting very small on the 180-192 system for a little over a week (since 11-6-09) and this week the only loss that played into that system was orl/cle....and that almost made the under if it werent for junk baskets at the end of the game because cle was blowing them out..but..besides that you have to keep in mind "THE OPENING LINE"...not the line that you catch it at...The boston/utah game yesterday is a perfect example..if you saw the opening line opened at 10.5 or something and the over/und was at 189 or something...the play was the over not under...Since 11-6-09 the plays are 7-2..only 2 losses were okc/hou last friday and cle/orl yesterday...it has great potential if you follow it correctly and im not even one to believe in the system strategy...If I were playing normal units on these I would be up a serious amount but I just wanted to track and see how it does...
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 119
Posted: #187

smokin376....

On November 10th, Washington vs. Miami was also a system loss. Miami was a 8.5 point home favorite and the over/under was set at 185. Following the system, these figures tell you to take the over, but the game finished under with a final score of 90-76.

I am beginning to generate more numbers for the system, and I am liking it more. I understand the dynamic of opening and closing lines, but it is a rare occurence where this line movement ends up changing the wager if following the system guidelines. NBA lines are set a day before tip-off and rarely move more than a point or two...

I have the 180-192 system at 9-5 this month.

The book I use actually has the Heat as home favorites tonight (-1) with the o/u set at 180. If this o/u does not fall, I will be on the over as the system advises. I will update results unless the people running this show dont approve...

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 724
Posted: #188
Quote Originally Posted by dannestor222:

smokin376....

On November 10th, Washington vs. Miami was also a system loss. Miami was a 8.5 point home favorite and the over/under was set at 185. Following the system, these figures tell you to take the over, but the game finished under with a final score of 90-76.

I am beginning to generate more numbers for the system, and I am liking it more. I understand the dynamic of opening and closing lines, but it is a rare occurence where this line movement ends up changing the wager if following the system guidelines. NBA lines are set a day before tip-off and rarely move more than a point or two...

I have the 180-192 system at 9-5 this month.

The book I use actually has the Heat as home favorites tonight (-1) with the o/u set at 180. If this o/u does not fall, I will be on the over as the system advises. I will update results unless the people running this show dont approve...

My bad...you are right on that Mia/Wash game..I didnt acknowledge it because I didnt catch the line when it opened so I didnt play that one but like I said I have been playing it since last friday and I am at 7-2, but in reality the system is at 7-3 since last week. I think this has excellent potential as we move forward. Keep up the grind. I was also thinking of tweaking it just a tad when a home team is favored by more than 4 - 6 and the over/und is below 180 (normally never).to automatically take the over.

If you think about it..when a NBA team is favored at home, there is a reason for that and they will play to win in front of home crowds and attempt at a blowout..If they are to cover a 4-6 point spread in the NBA, they are more than likely putting up more than 90 points..If they are scoring more than 90 then the opponent will be fouling down the stretch if they are anywhere in the vacinity of covering or even winning. Its just a thought and a personal one at that, but I think it has some merit to it.  

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 119
Posted: #189

Nevermind.....the 180-192 system is bogus....here are my findings, in case anyone cares....

Oct 2008......2-6....-4.6 units

Nov 2008....32-26....+3.4 units

Dec 2008....25-18-1.....+5.2 units

Jan 2009....19-18-1.....-0.8 units

Feb 2009....6-20-1....-16 units

March 2009....15-18-2....-4.8 units

April 2009....14-22-2....-10.2 units

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 10
Posted: #190

Dan,

I am new to all this stuff, been betting sports a bit for years and have been a played poker for a living in the past.  Just found these forums and am very intrigued on the system concepts.  How do you get your data and how to you run it? 

Sorry for the noob question.  If you could post here or shoot me a PM I would be appreciative.

 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 1065
Posted: #191
Quote Originally Posted by dannestor222:

Nevermind.....the 180-192 system is bogus....here are my findings, in case anyone cares....

Oct 2008......2-6....-4.6 units

Nov 2008....32-26....+3.4 units

Dec 2008....25-18-1.....+5.2 units

Jan 2009....19-18-1.....-0.8 units

Feb 2009....6-20-1....-16 units

March 2009....15-18-2....-4.8 units

April 2009....14-22-2....-10.2 units

 I only play this system when it matches a system # 1 play making it a # 3 on the under.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 1065
Posted: #192
4 system plays for friday!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 1065
Posted: #193

YTD 20-16 UNITS = EVEN

 Hoping to get back on the plus side tonight with the 4 system plays on the board.

11/13   Friday the 13th

 

3 SYSTEM # 2 PLAYS

UTAH @ PHILLY UNDER 2 UNITS

PORT@ NO UNDER 2 UNITS

DALLAS @ MINN  2 UNITS

1 SYSTEM #1 PLAY

ATLANTA @ BOS UNDER 1 UNIT

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 980
Posted: #194
Systems are OK but they only work 50% of the time.

I think in NBA you need to know the following:

1. How many shots team take in a Game.
2. Ho many fouls/free throws they get per Game
3. Who is out? Is it a player that averages 20-25 points/game or someone who averages 3 points a game etc etc
4. Shooting percentages or turn overs per game
5. Days between games

Need to research this before you put money down as the Bookies do their research.

At the end of the day, it is all about tempo. Teams with fast tempo make them score quicker and allows the opponents to also score quicker as they don't get back on D. It also depends on opposition too whether they will play the tempo or not.

Teams to look at overs on:
GS Warriors
Phoenix
Dallas
Denver
Atlanta (at home)
Indiana (when Troy Murphy comes back)
New York

Teams for unders
Clippers (Eric Gordon out = Unders)
Charlotte (hardly shoot the ball - poor shooters)
Detroit (slow tempo Offense, good D)
Miami (50/50 really - depends on how open their shooters get)
New Orleans

I will get some further research done and post. So far I have underestimated Cleveland in past 2 games. Both Miami and Orlando let them get in the lane too much.




 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 980
Posted: #195
New Orleans vs Portland

These 2 Teams have both hit Overs in their past 2 Games.

It is misleading however. Portland played Timberwolves who allow opposition to shoot 48% FGs and 40% 3 Pointers. Allowed 146 points too against GSW.

New Orleans played Phoenix - nuff said!

Why this Game will be Under 190?

Because it will be a highly defensive game and New Orleans will be fired up given Byron Scott's sacking. I think they will defend well inside and out and pressure the Portland shooters better.

Under is 2/3 in Home Games. This should be 3/4 if New Orleans play smart and defend the paint. We know Portland are a good D team anyway so no problems there. It is all about how many points NO will concede.


 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 980
Posted: #196
Boston vs Atlanta

Boston is Number 1 in Opponent PPGs : 85

Atlanta concedes alot of points themselves but that is probably the quality of the opponents Defense.

It could go either way but i will rely on Boston D stepping up and Atlanta knowing this is an East Playoff rival to also step up on D. The rest these 2 teams have had may play a part in helping the Defense in this game.

I'm looking at sub 90s from both teams
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 980
Posted: #197
Denver vs LA Lakers

Take a look at last year!

Same schedule. :akers played Phoenix - won 132 - 106 and then travelled to Denver and lost 90-79.

LA will arrive in Denver at 4am.

Pick: Under 212 and Denver to win
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 980
Posted: #198
CLIPPERS v RAPTORS

Clippers are just a dumb team. Be aware I go for them but they fucking disgust me with their stupidity. How do you pay millions to fucking dumbassholes!

Eric Gordon isn't playing so no offense. Gordon at least makes plays and gets team mates involved. This is the X Factor to whether Clippers score and win or simply lose.

Baron Davis jacks up crap half the time.

Toronto may control this but 50/50 for UNDER as it depends on whether they play D and also how hot they shoot and how well Clippers defend the perimeter.

Turkoglu may not play if he is still suffering the side strain. This will help the UNDER score.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 1065
Posted: #199
Quote Originally Posted by Shiek1995:

YTD 20-16 UNITS = EVEN

 Hoping to get back on the plus side tonight with the 4 system plays on the board.

11/13   Friday the 13th

 

3 SYSTEM # 2 PLAYS

UTAH @ PHILLY UNDER 2 UNITS

PORT@ NO UNDER 2 UNITS

DALLAS @ MINN  2 UNITS

1 SYSTEM #1 PLAY

ATLANTA @ BOS UNDER 1 UNIT

+ 3 units

 
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 980
Posted: #200
New Orleans vs Portland 
Denver vs LA Lakers
CLIPPERS v RAPTORS
Boston vs Atlanta

Bookies are dumb when it comes to the totals. Look at Lakers game - HTF was it ever going to be over? Fair enough Lakers scored 23 in 2nd but the fatigue factor always plays a apart. It's not like they were getting it up for another team orgy session.

Fuck those Lakers

All Forums | NBA Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.