Posted:
#1
NBA: 26-12 (68.4%) > +13.91u
> 24-12 > 2-0
Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets
I don't understand this line. Granted, the Bucks won on the road against the Knicks and Miami, but are just +4 against a red hot team like Houston? Milwaukee lost it's first 8 (EIGHT) games on the road, now they've got one quality win on the road (@Miami when Chalmers and LeBron kept pilling up turnovers) and this line is just 0.5 or 1 point more than the Rockets' home court advantage against average teams?
Rockets have won 8 of their last 9 games, 7 in a row, and 12 in a row at home.
Some stats:
- Offensive efficiency: Houston 8th / Milwaukee 24th
- Defensive Efficiency: Houston 21st / Milwaukee 15th
- Pace: Houston 16th / Milwaukee 9th
- Effective FG%: Houston 11th / Milwaukee 22nd
- True Shooting %: Houston 12th / Milwaukee 24th
You would think that Milwaukee, beeing such a physical team, should own the boards, right? Guess again, as they are ranked 24th in rebounding, with 40.9 per game, while Houston is #6, with 43.6 per game. Altough Milwaukee has a better pace, they have an average off 92 possessions per game, in which they average 91.8 ppg. Houston averages the same amount of possessions per game, but are scoring 97.4 ppg, and that's a big difference. On the defensive end, it's not such a big difference as one would've thought, Milwaukee allows 96.1 ppg, while Houston allows 97.8 ppg.
The 2 Kevins in the Rockets' roster, Martin and Lowry, are averaging 23.6 ppg and 18.1 ppg during the 7 win stretch. Even though Milwaukee won its last two games on the road, there are big differences between this two teams depending where they play. Houston is averaging 99.6 ppg at home with 46.3 FG%, 83.2 FT% and 46 rebounds, while Bucks on the road is averaging 88.2 ppg, 40.8 FG%, 40.4 boards.
The Rockets in their last 5 games: OFF: 102.6 ppg, 47.5 FG%, 85.7 FT%, 42.2 boards / DEF: 93.6 points allowed per game, 42.9 FG% allowed, 42 boards allowed.
Milwaukee in its last 5 games: OFF: 92 ppg, 42.1 FG%, 26.4 3p% / DEF: 92.8 papg, 41.6 FG%, 37.6 3p%.
Milwaukee is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Houston.
There is no look ahead angle for Houston, as they'll host
Washington Wizards two days from now. Milwaukee will travel after this game to Chicago to play against the Bulls, so this might be a factor tonight. I know Jennings is having a great season, but Lowry is in my opinion in top 3 of the PGs that can actually play defense. He is aggresive and he is willing to take charges.
This might be very well a trap as I can't understand this line at all. It should've been -5.5 at least. I'm going to take it and hope Vegas doesn't know something big that I don't.
Pick: Rockets -4 @ -105
Stake: 1 unit
0
...im liking this play 2.. any other plays for tomorrows game?
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