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One Play A Day for the Season...

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Posted: #1
Well here we are gentlemen with a new NBA season...lets see what we can do with it...my record...0-0...

Dallas at Denver -5...O/U 213...

Denver's first 3 games...total points scored in the games...

195 vs Kings
215 vs Suns
208 vs Trailblazers

Dallas's first 3 games...total points scored...

240 vs Trailblazers
239 vs Pelicans
208 vs Wizards

Dallas has made no secret of their goal to become the most prolific 3 point shooting team in the NBA this year...you could almost make an argument for betting every game they play in the first month as an OVER game...

Very easy play going against the public and taking the OVER 213 here...if Dallas has anything to say about it, this will be an over game and Denver could easily just play along and still win this game...

First month of the season I play a standard 2 units per game unless something very strange presents itself as an opportunity....

Best of luck..

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Posted: #2
Went to put in my wager after posting...line dropped to 212.5...I'm going to wait until near tip off to see what this does...like it at 213 so I won't be disappointed if it pops up but if the public wants to drive this down to 212 or 211...I won't mind at all...

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Posted: #3
By the way, my standard juice on these games is -105 unless otherwise noted...

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Posted: #4
On this as well, best of luck. 
 
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Posted: #5
But I'm showing 60% + of the public on the over????

Sharps are on the under, GL though
 
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Posted: #6

Right... "One" play a day.. an_wink Good luck with that...

an_roll_laugh

As usual, we'll be on the opposite of this total. I locked in the U216.5 last night with my local casino book app. 

BOL brotha.. thumbs_up

"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
 
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Posted: #7
62% of the degens at covers actually on the overs with a 1000 person sample size. Whale's moving the line down in my opinion. 


https://contests.covers.com/Consensus/MatchupConsensusDetails/94a5c983-5315-4713-b9c0-aad700636cb1?showExperts=False
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Bodiddly:

62% of the degens at covers actually on the overs with a 1000 person sample size. Whale's moving the line down in my opinion. 


https://contests.covers.com/Consensus/MatchupConsensusDetails/94a5c983-5315-4713-b9c0-aad700636cb1?showExperts=False

Like I said...the PUBLIC is moving the line down...

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Posted: #9
Seriously contemplating the OVER team totals in this same game...

Dallas 104... -115
Denver 109... -115

These seems like very reasonable numbers...especially if you believe the game is going over and you believe Dallas will be competitive...which I do...

Will wait until near tip off for possible action on these as well...

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Posted: #10

Bud... For the past 3 games, Dallas has scored 108, 123 and 119. For tonight's game, the odds makers have set the Dallas team total at a measly 104!? confused Alarm bells should be going off in your head, not cash register sounds.. an_drunksick

Ultimately, it's your money and its up to you. After all, odds makers DO mistakes make from time to time..

"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

Bud... For the past 3 games, Dallas has scored 108, 123 and 119. For tonight's game, the odds makers have set the Dallas team total at a measly 104!? confused Alarm bells should be going off in your head, not cash register sounds.. an_drunksick

Ultimately, it's your money and its up to you. After all, odds makers DO mistakes make from time to time..


Yep...pretty obvious...almost TOO obvious...but this is the classic...

"I know you know but you know I know that you know so I know that you knew I would have known that you knew or should have known that the line is set to fool you..."

PSYCHE 1 2 3~~~~!!......

It is so early in the season...the books don't have their numbers right yet...just look at that Clippers/GSW game...Clips were -1 faves...won by what...20+...?

Books will be making mistakes in this first month until their number solidify...

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Posted: #12
Dallas 101-  Denver 107

UNDER IS THE BET!! 

Best defense in Nba (Nuggets)

Dallas can get 100 pts tonight??? 
 
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Posted: #13
I will just say this...at Dallas +5...the books believe the game will be competitive...

It will not be competitive based on Dallas's defense...to put it mildly, they suck on defense because Rick Carlisle has not figured out his rotations yet...not even close...he has another 2-3 weeks before he settles in...

If it is competitive, it will be so because of a lot of scoring going on by both teams...

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Posted: #14
I like under 213
 
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Posted: #15

hawks not contributing to the over 213 

 
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Posted: #16
Kuz has his POD set at Dallas OVER 53 in the 1H...if that happens, the full game TT of OVER 104 has a high probability of hitting...

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Posted: #17
O/U numbers...

Dallas 1H OVER 53... -115
Denver 1H OVER 56... -115
Dallas FG OVER 104... -115
Denver FG OVER 109... -115

Game OVER 56... 1H... -105
Game OVER 212.5... -105

I don't think its going any lower...locked in 2 units on the full game OVER 212.5...

And...

1 unit each on the other OVERS...

Damnit...one play per day didn't make it past day ONE...

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Posted: #18

no way they score more than 55 for miami game for the over :( 

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by ayashifx55:

no way they score more than 55 for miami game for the over :( 


Sorry about your Miami over brutha...

Meanwhile, this Dallas/Detroit OVER is looking very good...

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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:


Sorry about your Miami over brutha...

Meanwhile, this Dallas/Detroit OVER is looking very good...


Looking good Smacks. It's been a while, but decided to tail. First NBA bet of the year. NFL hasn't fared to well for me. Thought these plays look good.
 
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Posted: #21
Dallas 1H OVER 53... -115..................WINNER
Denver 1H OVER 56... -115.................WINNER
Dallas FG OVER 104... -115.................
Denver FG OVER 109... -115...............

Game OVER 56... 1H... -105................WINNER
Game OVER 212.5... -105...................

3 winners with 3 more to go...and looking good bois!...


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Posted: #22

Good start! Let’s keep this up 

 
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Posted: #23
Adding a 2H play...

Dallas/Denver OVER 103... -105...1 unit

I think both teams are very comfortable with the pace tonight...Dallas is playing what it wants and Denver has decided to just play along it seems...

Don't see anything changing here..

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Posted: #24
Ok..ok..jeez....adding again...2H...

Dallas TT OVER 50... 1 unit... -115

Denver TT OVER 53... 1 unit... -115

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Posted: #25
Dallas 1H OVER 53... -115..................WINNER
Denver 1H OVER 56... -115.................WINNER
Dallas FG OVER 104... -115.................WINNER
Denver FG OVER 109... -115...............LOSER

Game OVER 56... 1H... -105................WINNER
Game OVER 212.5... -105...................WINNER

2H Plays...Pretty sick as 2 of 3 of these should have easily covered if Luka can make a few free throws.......

Dallas/Denver OVER 103... -105...1 unit...LOSER
Dallas TT OVER 50... 1 unit... -115............LOSER
Denver TT OVER 53... 1 unit... -115...........LOSER

Why is Luka so bad at free throws?.......
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