Picking flat spots

Quote Originally Posted by Chase_Beaverman:

Something that's intruiged me about the really good h'cappers out there is their knack for predicting when certain teams are susceptible to flat spots or letdown spots.

 

I just wanted to open up the floor, so to speak, and get some opinions on what sorts of factors you look out for when trying to pick up on these situational occurrences.

 

I know there are plenty that get tossed around, ie look ahead spots, first game back home after x number of games on the road ect.

 

I'd be interested to hear from totals guys too, infact one of the main reasons I wanted to start this thread was a game I bet (and lost) today.

 

Had a good win on an early game, and decided to bet half the winnings on the Lakers game to go over 212.

 

A nagging thought in the back on my mind questioned whether the Lakers would be up for this game against a lowly opponent having just run a couple of marathons with the Warriors a couple of days earlier.

 

BUT, I didn't really cap the game with the usual thoroughness, just opted for some late night "square" action on the over.

 

Sure enough, the Lakers were flat (they lost SU), the total went under and my bet (albeit small) lost

 

I felt like a real dummy after this one, having virtually given myself a reason to lay off the play i eventually made.

 

Anyway, this thing is a constant learning process, so please feel free to contribute

 

 

 

 

 

You hit the nail on the head there ChaseBeaverman.thats the exact angle for last nights game that if using it would give everyone the winner.

What most handicappers forget is 100% of games have a angle that will lead you to the right answer.Only thing is you have to figure out what angle is the right angle.

Its like being in school and writing a "thesis" then just wait till the game is over to see if your "thesis" was right or wrong.

Quote Originally Posted by JamaicanMeCrazy:

 

 

 

  but i really dont know what to make of what you said about above.

you played a total, lost it, and you want advice on how to cap a game

 

is this a UES revival thread???? HELL YEAH--. UES FOR LIFE

that's because you're an idiot

bye bye

Quote Originally Posted by oyeboy:

what particular game are you interest with?

maybe to avoid trap games. and i always laugh about my pick when i lose with my predicting leans. but im always watching each games. did i answer your question right? i hope so.

no right or wrong answers here, just interested to hear people's theories

figure a thread like this might be more useful than the usual "WHO'S THE BETS GUY TO TAIL" bullshite  

it feels like 4 people have posted in this thread

nice above post chosen beaverman

chase, just wondering with "flat spots"  are

once i find out, i can go to bed. thanks sir

i can already tell you're going to be a real asset to 'covers'  

Quote Originally Posted by beavers666:

beaverman u sorry ass, just because u lost, u have to create this forum! Get a life mr. wise guy its normal to lose and there is no other person to blame but yourself and your stupid decisions!!!

Its so frustrating ain't it??? Well its to late to regret and stop acting that everyone likes u, listens to u, rides along with u and last but not the least being impressed by your betting/capping skills!!!

There are must people out there better than u sorry just for your lost

this f**king moron is a living example of what the covers hoops forum has degenerated into

it's unfortunate for the 40% or so of posters who are decent individuals and contributors

this is the final straw as far as i'm concerned, to start a thread that merely asks for a bit of thought and insight and to instead get responses like the one above, well fcuk it, i'm not wasting my time here anymore

best of luck to everyone on covers who ISN'T a dick head

1. I watch games as much as I could to get a feel on most teams.
2. I usually don't play teams with a missing key player (or a key player coming back from an injury to play).
3. I'd check out the matchup stats over covers and try to look at angles.
4. I try to go over the past 5 games as they are more relevant than a few month's back.
5. I try to gauge the team I'm capping by checking how they do on teams with similar style of play
6. I checkout ATS records/days rests/home record/away record
7. I try to see any patterns (e.i. coming from 2 home lose/back to back road game/playing 5 games in 6 nights)
8. Check out referees (www.nba.com/news/referee.html)
9. I try to guage which team needs this win the most