Playoff Recorded Record 23-14 Friday X Picks/Write-Ups!

Recorded Playoff Record
23-14 62%

 Before I get to my plays I wanted to take a second to apologize. I am new to posting my plays here on covers and someone pointed out I was doing a few things wrong.

 I wasn't aware that posting live plays that were not posted immediately after making them was frowned upon. I normally waited till the end of the game to tally everything up and pasted my tickets. I will not be doing it that way any more. Instead I will try to use half time bets more and if I absolutely need to use a live bet, I will post it IMMEDIATELY after i make it.. while the game is still on and the scores can still go either way.

  I apologize to anyone that I offended by this. I am very thankful to you guys for pointing it out so I don't continue to look dumb lol. I also wanted to thank Kaponofor3 for taking the time to help me with my questions about this.

 Oh and I took off the part of my record that talked about my playoff numbers I had before posting.. I also scratched the live bets from yesterday from my record since I didnt post them right away. Hopefully everything is by the book now.

Anyways.. On with the Plays!

Mavs -2

My god have the Mavs been on fire. They are on an 11-0-1 ATS run and I don't see it stopping.. At least not Friday night. They are just entirely too deep and have too many strengths for the Lakers to contain. They have tall players, they have fast guards that are amazing at cutting the the basket, and they can shoot with a high % accuracy from anywhere on the court. Not to mention they have the best clutch shooter left in the playoffs (in my opinion).

 I talked about this in my last write up about this series but I still think it still really applies. In my opinion the Lakers biggest weakness is being able to deffend small/fast/agile guards. The first reason this gives them so much trouble is that those type of guards are able to easily get around LA's slower moving bigs. Which allows them to create space and make shots. The second reason is that for some reason fast guards completely throw Fisher off of his game. Then the Lakers resort to using Kobe to defend them and they lose a huge part of their offense (La/Hornets game 2). It was because of these weaknesses that Chris Paul was such a nightmare for them. The same reason Barea will be able to cause them so much trouble.

 Watching the last game between these 2 clubs made me realize something too. Due to LA's giant ego, they weren't embarrassed to to keep throwing up 3 pointers even though they were all bricking. They needed to realize that the 3 pointer just wasn't working for them and they needed to change plans... but instead they thew up a bunch of bricks and let the mavs easily get the win. I normally think confidence is great but in this case I think it hurt them. Recognize your shortcomings and fix them.

Lastly, The Lakers have yet to figure out a way to contain Dirk. Im sure it must be hard considering how tall he is and the fact that his one legged fade away is nearly un-blockable BUT... if the Lakers want to stay alive, they need to figure it out and quick.

If the Lakers had a tough time at home, its about to get a lot harder. Dirk has experienced going 2-0 and then losing in game 7. He will not want to make the same mistake. They smell blood and will want to end it now, while they can. Oh and not to mention their fans will be smelling blood too. Mavs are the play here.


Hawks +3 (should read 4 by game time)

I absolutely love the way the Hawks have played at home during this years playoffs. Their crowed is in my opinion the loudest and craziest of the remaining teams. They have a way of instilling a tremendous amount of energy and confidence into their team. As a matter of fact Atlanta has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS as 3 point underdogs at home this season. 3 of those 6 include their wins over the magic during round 1.

 Now while I think they can pull this off, I dont think it will be easy. Atlanta has shown that they can control the paint and even out rebound the bulls (game 1). If they want to do it again they will need big nights from Johnson and Crawford. They had a huge night in game 1 combining for 56 points but the Bulls were able to contain them in game 2 and only allowing 27 combined points. I really think that with the fans lifting them up, they will go all out and put on a show during this game.

The other edge I think Atlanta has on the Bulls is the heart the play with. You can tell that the Hawks have fun while they are playing. They are all friends and have been playing like a team lately. They always had a lot of talent but never had the confidence required to compete at their full potential. Well they have all the confidence in the world and are finally able to utilize the talent they all have. If Atlanta is able to win another game in this series, this will be the game. You will see them use their athleticism/swagger to constantly hustle the court. They play at full speed and get as physical as it takes. Normally the Bulls take the physical route but I think the Hawks will own that side of the game tomorrow and it will throw the Bulls defense off their game.

The Hawks are 6-2 in these playoffs compared to the Bulls 3-5 and I think Hawks +3 is the play here.

Let me know what you guys think! Take care everyone!

LOVE ATL TOMORROW. Playing the ML myself. GL  

ooops i meant to say that you have more balls than me lol not value haha

I enjoyed reading those writeups, CloserX.  I agree wholeheartedly with both plays.  Home teams this Friday night.

 

 

 

 

NOWAY ATL's crowd is better than OKC's....nice write up tho

Am i the only one who remembers when they were "caught" using fake crowd noise a few years back?!

Excellent write-ups, CloserX. Your reasoning is well thought out and compelling.

To tell you the truth, the type of wager I'm making is somewhat different than the usual. In essence, I'm trying to pick games that will end within a 5-point window. The winner is unimportant in terms of cashing a ticket. Whoever triumphs must do so by 5 points or less.

The Lakers' lackadaisical performance in Game 2 really gives me pause. Beyond their inability to nail timely 3-pointers, their overall play struck me as very ordinary. Don't know what the cause would be, but at no time did I feel a sense of urgency coming from anybody wearing a Laker uniform.

Now, I don't expect that to continue. But losing the first two games at home is exactly what they didn't need. I'm looking for something to convince me that Game 3 will finish within 5. If anyone can provide evidence that L.A. can see the game down to the wire, I'll be surprised ... and delighted!

I feel better about the Chicago @ Atlanta game, though. Top to bottom, I believe the Bulls are the better team. But not THAT MUCH better! Back at home, I'm expecting the Hawks to play with a greater self-assurance with the home crowd's support. And the coach ain't stupid ... he and the team know that playing to their greatest potential gives them their only real chance at prolonging the series. Lose, and a 3-0 Chicago lead would be fatal.

So, to CloserX and anyone else who takes the time to write informative posts, I thank you. Your thoughts are welcome and appreciation.

Thanks man, Im glad you enjoyed the write-ups. Hopefully we have a good night tomorrow. I did a lot of research on these games and I also really think the home teams have the most value. GL

haha, you know whats funny... As I was writing that, I actually thought of the OKC crowd and started second guessing myself for a second lol. Then I thought about this interview. Check it out, its pretty interesting.
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Thanks for the kind words, it means a lot. I was wondering if I should continue these write-ups. So reading replies like yours and hearing that you guys like them/find them helpful makes it worth it.

I was thinking about the way you are doing your wagers. That would require a whole new set of factors while determining value. How has your success rate been so far with it? What variables are you currently taking into consideration while doing your handicapping? I am always interested in hearing new methods people are using to make a profit in this field.

Just off the top of my head though... Without looking at any numbers/patterns/percentages... I would say that predicting a game that would result in a 5 point differential between the 2 teams would be harder than just predicting sides. On the other hand, I haven't looked into it.

Please give me some of the calculations/data you use and I would gladly use some of my stuff as well to see what I can come up with.

Either way, Thanks again. Stop by anytime and let me know what you think about my write-ups. I am all about bouncing info/ideas off of people to better our skills. Take care friend.

how can you back ATL when they literally had no passion in game 2. Did you not see Joe Johnson tank that game? The body language tells you everything.

I hope the public is all over ATL on this one, CHI will come out ahead. Joe Johnson will choke and tank another one.

I just wanted to clear this up before it comes up.

I know Hinrich is out. At first I was worried about it but after watching the results of the first 2 games, I actually think its for the best. As much as I like Hinrich, his replacement Teague has been the reason Atlanta has been able to keep Rose in check. Teague is extremely fast and able to keep Rose from being able to make all of his crazy drives to the basket. Instead rose has been forced to take all of those jumpers that he has been missing.

2-0 night pop them bottles tomorrow

awsome writeups man im felling the same thing lets make some money!!! 

Neither team played great ball that night. Everything was rather choppy. The rebounding is what won that game for the bulls. Also, you are correct about the body language. Johnson was frustrated because he was getting double teamed and couldn't rely on the other guys to do their thing. Everyone's Chemistry was off that night.

 The difference tomorrow will be the fact that they are playing at home. The hawks have HUGE talent but REALLY rely on confidence to use it. When they hear their crazy home crowd roaring and screaming, they will have all the confidence/swagger in the world. Trust me, they will be feeling it and speaking of body language... their swagger will be written all over them lol.

***oh and my play isn't solely based on this. Its just I'm not going to re-write everything I already wrote in my write-ups.

Ill be here with 2 bottles ready!

Thanks man! and yeah, lets have a great night and make some money!

Something is wrong with the line of -2 Mavs. Be careful, this line should be at least -5. Ron Artest out and dominated the Lakers @ their own house? What only -2? Ok!

Please do!!! 

loving dallas but have to go with the bulls in the other game!....anyways, gl to ya friday!