Posted:
#126
spurs to score close to 30 in the 3rd
playoff time...
Posted:
#129
Spurs +2 (***** 5 STARS *****) 
Spurs Over 190.5 (***** 5 STARS *****) - POD
2nd Half Spurs -2.5 (***** 10 STARS *****) 
2nd Half Over 95.5 (***** 5 STARS *****)
Portland 2nd Half Over 91.5 (*** 3 STARS ***)
Portland Under 187 (**** 4 STARS ****)
1st Half Portland Under 95 (*** 3 STARS ***)
Portland -4 (*** 3 STARS ***)
2nd Half Portland -4 (***** 5 STARS *****) Push
Chicago Over 187.5 (*** 3 STARS ***)
Chicago -4.5 (*** 3 STARS ***)
1st Half Chicago -2.5 (**** 4 STARS ****)
4-7-1... [-12] yup
Posted:
#132
Correction of last night's debacle:
1st Half Bulls -2.5 (**** 4 STARS ****)
Bulls -4.5 (*** 3 STARS ***)
Over 187.5 (*** 3 STARS ***)
(forgot) 2nd Half Under 95 (*** 3 STARS ***)
Portland -4 (**** 4 STARS ****)
1st Half Under 95 (*** 3 STARS ***)
Under 187 (**** 4 STARS ****)
2nd Half Portland -4 (***** 5 STARS *****) Push
2nd Half Over 91.5 (*** 3 STARS ***)
Spurs +2 (***** 5 STARS *****) - POD
Spurs Over 190.5 (***** 5 STARS *****) - POD
2nd Half Over 95.5 (***** 5 STARS *****)
2nd Half Spurs -2.5 (***** 10 STARS *****)
5-7-1 overall [-6]
Posted:
#133
Full Updated Record:
29-27-1 (52%)
[+23]
Week 1:
Day 1: 2-2 (50%) --- [-1]
Day 2: 3-3 (50%) --- [+3]
Day 3: 7-1 (87%) --- [+25]
Day 4: 3-2 (60%) --- [+7]
Day 5: 6-3 (67%) --- [+13]
Day 6: 3-9 (25%) --- [-18]
Day 7: 5-7-1 (42%) --- [-6]
3 stars: 9 for 17 (53%)
4 stars: 11 for 21 (52%)
5 stars: 8 for 13 (61%)
10 stars: 1 for 1 (100%)
POD: 3 for 6 (50%)
Posted:
#135
Today's Card: 04.24.2011
Game #1: Philly vs. Miami
1st Half Over 95 (**** 4 STARS ****)
Philadelphia +6 (**** 4 STARS ****)
Game #2: New York vs. Boston
1st Half Over 97.5 (***** 5 STARS *****)
Over 195 (**** 4 STARS ****)
1st Half Knicks +2 (**** 4 STARS ****)
Knicks +4 (*** 3 STARS ***)
Game #3: Atlanta vs. Orlando
PASS for now
Game #4: New Orleans vs. Lakers
Lakers -5.5 (*** 3 STARS ***)
Posted:
#141
Quote Originally Posted by trehoops:
"THE BOOKS KEEP ADJUSTING THEIR SPREADS". WHAT?!!
"THE BOOKS KEEP ADJUSTING THEIR SPREADS". WHAT?!!
I clearly didnt explain myself well, so let me try to clarify my point. there is something called "line movement". if you are serious about trying to predict the outcome of games, then you will usually look at a variety of factors to help confirm your bias. One of things I take into consideration is line movement. This "line movement" however, does not, and should not be the only determining factor when choosing a side - this is where I seem to have messed up recently, as i put too much focus on them.
from what i understand, a line will move, more or less, for two reasons: (1) heavy money/action is on one particular side and so the books attempt to balance the action by adjusting the spread. this is how life works, when there's more pressure on one side, the market will try to reach equilibrium. Unfortunately, in this industry, not only is it not that simple or efficient, it's very possible that games are tampered with. Either way, books "try" to balance the action - they will not always reach 50% on each side but they "try". It's the same notion as a "buyer/seller" market where a price will move and adjust to a point where an even amount are on both sides - except it almost rarely actually moves so drastically to fit the 50/50 equation in this industry. (2) [and this is where i think I have fallen victim/what I was referring to in my post] the line will just move for the sake of making people - like me - read into it more than I should. Since it's evident that a line will usually move if heavy money is placed on one side, they take advantage of that fact, and i guess you could say "fake" heavy action by moving a spread/total. What I was referring to was movement that would, for example, go up 1 point, then down half a point etc... my confession is that i got away from just picking sides based on my real intuition, and just using other indicators as confirmation. I allowed all this "fix" talk to really get to my head. A large majority of my most recent plays haven't necessarily been picked by going "against the public" per say, which people claim is the right way to go (it isnt), but rather, I would stupidly try to anticipate what the books really wanted out of games, who they preferred to be up at half time for example so that they could get additional action on a losing side. This is ludicrous of me, no need to come here and reiterate that. I was wrong in that thought process, I am aware. I have gone through these stretches before and have adjusted my approach. Alright, I hope that explains it. If you don't understand, then I'm sorry, but that's all i can say.
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