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Professor MJ's daily NBA projections (statistical models)

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Professor-MJ

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Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: May. 15, 2017 - 10:02 AM ET #101

Nothing beats a Game 7, especially when the two teams hate each other. This game should be a lot of fun to watch. From a betting perspective, we’ve got a 1-star play:

| Bookie | PROF MJ | Bookie | PROF MJ

----------|--------|---------|---------|---------

Wizards | +191 | +254 | 2.91 | 3.54

Celtics | -213 | -254 | 1.47 | 1.39

| Bookie | PROF MJ | |

Wizards | +5 | +6.3 | |

Celtics | -5 | -6.3 | |

Tip: Bet the Celtics.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m betting the Celtics -5 against the Wizards. One of the arguments in favor of Boston is pretty unusual and I don’t think I’ve ever used that kind of justification since posting my picks online several months ago: referees. It could be the X factor. First of all, the league admitted the Celtics should have benefited from an additional second towards the end of the 92-91 loss in Game 6 so they might consciously/unconsciously try to make up for that call. Secondly, the league definitely wants the Celtics to win tonight’s match: bigger market, franchised history, the unfortunate death of Isaiah Thomas’ sister, you name it. I’m not saying the game is rigged, but I would expect Boston to get more favorable calls.

The home team has won all 10 meetings in 2016-17. All five home wins by the Celtics against Washington this year were by more than 5 points (though three of them came by a margin lying between 8 and 10 points).

Over the past 9 seasons, the home team is 18-12 against the spread (ATS) in Game 7s, which also suggests taking Boston. However, the team that lost Game 6 ATS is 19-11 ATS in Game 7. Since Washington lost Game 6 ATS (they were favored by 5 but only won by a single point), that points in the Wizards’ direction, so we have conflicting arguments when looking at the above Game 7 numbers. Be aware that are discussing trends with small sample sizes so you may not want to put too much emphasis on them (but still good to know).

Enjoy the game!

Professor MJ

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 10:13 AM ET #102

After squandering a 25-point lead in Game 1 and losing their star player to an injury, the Spurs must try to find a way to bounce back tonight. Will they be able to do it? Let’s have a look at today’s projections:

SPURS-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 14, Prof MJ = Warriors by 12.8)

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m betting the Spurs +14 at the Warriors. For those of you who have been following me for a while, you know I prefer to go against the grain. So I wondered “if I asked someone on the street what he thinks of the Spurs-Warriors game, what is he most likely to respond?” I believe that person would mainly talk about Kawhi Leonard being injured and the nice Golden State comeback. That makes me lean towards San Antonio; it feels uncomfortable to bet them.

It is also interesting to note that the Spurs were 6-2 against the spread this season with Leonard on the sidelines. Sure, they were badly outplayed when he left Game 1. But San Antonio did not have time to gameplan for his absence; now they do and who better than coach Gregg Popovich to do it? Plus he is very mad about how the injury occurred (“…makes me very, very angry.”, he said) so he will figure out a way to motivate his players.

It’s unclear whether Andre Iguodala can play tonight for the Warriors. He is dealing with a left knee injury and is considered a 50/50 call.

Enjoy the game!

Professor MJ

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: May. 17, 2017 - 11:09 AM ET #103

After sweeping Indiana and Toronto, the Cavaliers travel to Boston for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Can LeBron James reach the NBA Finals for a record-high seventh time in a row?

CAVALIERS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Cavaliers by 4, Prof MJ = Cavaliers by 4.1)

I’m going to stay away from that game, despite being tempted to bet Cleveland. Over the past 9 playoffs, teams coming off a sweep are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in Game 1 of their next series when facing an opponent that needed seven games to move on. That includes the Warriors not being able to beat the 13-point spread in Game 1 against the Jazz this postseason after winning by 12 points (they were close from doing it, though!). However, a sample size of 11 is small and I’m not convinced the line is still offering value after opening at 3 before jumping to 4 following heavy action on Cleveland (80% of the bets are going their way). But there is no doubt the Cavaliers have flipped the playoff switch.

The season series went 3-1 in favor of Cleveland; their only loss occurred in Boston by a 4-point margin. The Cavs are 5-3-1 ATS against the Celtics over the last 9 matchups.

Have a nice Wednesday!

Professor MJ

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: May. 19, 2017 - 10:34 AM ET #104

The Cavaliers are still unbeaten in the playoffs (9-0): they have been very impressive thus far. Can they keep it up tonight in Game 2 at the TD Garden?

CAVALIERS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Cavaliers by 5.5, Prof MJ = Cavaliers by 4.3)

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m betting the Celtics +5.5 against the Cavaliers. I am fully aware how much Cleveland has been playing at a high level (including LeBron James who has looked unstoppable!). But let’s step back a little bit. In Game 1 the line closed at 4 points in most books. In other words, the line has now increased by 1.5 points simply because of the outcome of Game 1. As far as I know, there aren’t any new injuries. So basically we had the opportunity to watch both teams play around 90 games this season, but just a single game was enough to make the line shift by 1.5 points? It may not look that big of a move on the surface, but it’s a big one. It is telling us that instead of having a 37% chance of winning the game, Boston now has a 32% chance (approximately). Quite a difference.

To put things in perspective, I went back to find regular season games in March where the road team was a 5, 5.5 or 6-point favorite. Here are four that I found:

- Boston Celtics -5 at Philadelphia 76ers (March 19)

- Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 at Sacramento Kings (March 22)

- Oklahoma City Thunder -5 at Orlando Magic (March 29)

- Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 at Chicago Bulls without Dwayne Wade (March 30)

Think about the difference in team strength between today’s Cavaliers and the Celtics. Is it really as big as the difference in team strength between, say, the Bucks and the Kings? No way! Or simply look at the last example above where those same Cavaliers were playing the Bulls without Wade. Sure, I agree that Cleveland is now playing at a higher level, but Boston is much better than the Wade-less Chicago Bulls (they finished 12 games ahead of them, and it would have been worse had Wade been out for the entire season).

The Cavaliers have now won 12 straight playoff games. Wow! In the 2016-17 playoffs, they are 6-2-1 against the spread as their only two losses occurred in Games 1 and 2 of the first-round series versus Indiana (Cleveland was a 9-point favorite in both games, but won by 1 and 6 points). Meanwhile, after dropping their first two home playoff games against Chicago, the Celtics had won five consecutive games at the TD Garden before Game 1’s loss versus the Cavaliers.

We might see a lot more from rookie Jaylen Brown who played amazingly well defensively against King James. Coach Brad Stevens obviously needs to make changes, and this could be one. Why not give it a try?

Good Friday all!

Professor MJ

The Cavaliers are still unbeaten in the playoffs (9-0): they have been very impressive thus far. Can they keep it up tonight in Game 2 at the TD Garden?

CAVALIERS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Cavaliers by 5.5, Prof MJ = Cavaliers by 4.3)

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

To put things in perspective, I went back to find regular season games in March where the road team was a 5, 5.5 or 6-point favorite. Here are four that I found:

- Boston Celtics -5 at Philadelphia 76ers (March 19)

- Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 at Sacramento Kings (March 22)

- Oklahoma City Thunder -5 at Orlando Magic (March 29)

- Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 at Chicago Bulls without Dwayne Wade (March 30)

Good Friday all!

Professor MJ

Derp-Sippin

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 152

Posted: May. 19, 2017 - 11:48 AM ET #105

I don't think you can compare those 4 games in march to playoff games in may. I see your point but the Bulls match up better against the Cavs than the Celtics do. Also I think lines ranging from -5 to -6 in the playoffs so far the favorite has blown the dog out almost every time.

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: May. 19, 2017 - 11:52 AM ET #106

Quote Originally Posted by Derp-Sippin:

I don't think you can compare those 4 games in march to playoff games in may. I see your point but the Bulls match up better against the Cavs than the Celtics do. Also I think lines ranging from -5 to -6 in the playoffs so far the favorite has blown the dog out almost every time.

I see your point. We can't all agree or else things would be boring! ;-) It should be a fun game to watch. Thanks for your input my friend!

JeffFromFuture

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 2071

Posted: May. 19, 2017 - 11:52 AM ET #107

true, playoffs is whole new ball game ...sports knowledge will get you far in playoffs...im killing it.

JeffFromFuture

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 2071

Posted: May. 19, 2017 - 11:54 AM ET #108

my only discrepancy with your models is that they highly match the sportsbooks numbers...to win you need to take in account factors that the sportsbooks dont....just a tip.

JeffFromFuture

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 2071

Posted: May. 19, 2017 - 11:56 AM ET #109

but i see you are trying something different now, not those calculated spread like you did earlier in the season...BOL

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: May. 19, 2017 - 12:03 PM ET #110

This story made me chuckle: a Spurs fan has filed a lawsuit against Zaza Pachulia for the Kawhi Leonard injury. As if it wasn’t ridiculous enough, the fan also went on to ask for a restraining order against the Warriors to prevent them from going to San Antonio. What is more likely to happen: this fan winning his case, or me becoming the next president of the United States? Hard to tell.

WARRIORS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 6, Prof MJ = Warriors by 5.6)

I’m staying away from this game, but I read an interesting story on Covers about the first half line. It goes like this: during the 2017 postseason, teams that have lost the first two games of the series have covered the first-half pointspread 9 times out of 9! The reasoning behind the trend makes sense: the team that is up 2-0 in the series might take its foot off the pedal, hoping to win Game 3 without having to work too hard, whereas the other team plays very desperately. Adjustments are made at halftime, where the team up 2-0 in the series may wake up and realize they will have to put more effort in order to win the game.

That being said, I’m not necessarily advocating betting your house on the Spurs for the first half (even though they do meet the criterion). The main reason is Golden State is a 6-point favorite for the entire game, but the first-half line is Warriors -2. In normal circumstances, they should be favorites by 3 or 3.5 points. Did the general public catch on with this angle? I figured I would let you know about that trend and leave it up to you to make your own decision.

In injury news, Kawhi Leonard is questionable to play Game 3. He basically sat out the entire practice on Thursday. We’ll see how he progresses on Friday (I wrote this report Friday morning), but I don’t believe we’ll get more details until Saturday.

On the Warriors’ side, Zaza Pachulia has a bruised heel and previously had trouble with his right Achilles. Considering he’s enemy number one in San Antonio and Golden State is up 2-0 in the series, it might be wise to sit him out unless he’s 100%. Andre Iguodala is also questionable, but he looks more likely to play after going through practice Thursday.

Let me end this write up by mentioning that 77% of the spread bets have gone on the Warriors.

I’m anxious to see if the Spurs can get back in this series!

Professor MJ

WARRIORS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 6, Prof MJ = Warriors by 5.6)

Let me end this write up by mentioning that 77% of the spread bets have gone on the Warriors.

I’m anxious to see if the Spurs can get back in this series!

Professor MJ

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: May. 19, 2017 - 12:04 PM ET #111

Quote Originally Posted by JeffFromFuture:

my only discrepancy with your models is that they highly match the sportsbooks numbers...to win you need to take in account factors that the sportsbooks dont....just a tip.

You are teasing me, my friend!! I'm really open to listening to your ideas, or more specifically things you take into account that sportsbooks don't. I'd love to hear your input!

Derp-Sippin

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 152

Posted: May. 19, 2017 - 12:23 PM ET #112

Quote Originally Posted by Professor-MJ:

I see your point. We can't all agree or else things would be boring! ;-) It should be a fun game to watch. Thanks for your input my friend!

No doubt! Totally agree. The best part about covers is the discussions and disagreements. Thanks for all you do friend and I love your posts!

Derp-Sippin

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 152

Posted: May. 19, 2017 - 12:40 PM ET #113

Quote Originally Posted by JeffFromFuture:

true, playoffs is whole new ball game ...sports knowledge will get you far in playoffs...im killing it.

Yup I love seeing cappers models/systems but I think especially in the playoffs you have to factor in the details they can't.

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: May. 20, 2017 - 11:03 AM ET #114

WARRIORS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 6, Prof MJ = Warriors by 5.6)

I’m staying away from this game, but I read an interesting story on Covers.com about the first half line. It goes like this: during the 2017 postseason, teams that have lost the first two games of the series have covered the first-half pointspread 9 times out of 9! The reasoning behind the trend makes sense: the team that is up 2-0 in the series might take its foot off the pedal, hoping to win Game 3 without having to work too hard, whereas the other team plays very desperately. Adjustments are made at halftime, where the team up 2-0 in the series may wake up and realize they will have to put more effort in order to win the game.

Let me end this write up by mentioning that 77% of the spread bets have gone on the Warriors.

I’m anxious to see if the Spurs can get back in this series!

Professor MJ

WARRIORS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 6, Prof MJ = Warriors by 5.6)

Let me end this write up by mentioning that 77% of the spread bets have gone on the Warriors.

I’m anxious to see if the Spurs can get back in this series!

Professor MJ

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