Thanks Peter and Ich. Best of luck to you guys as well. Still tweaking this NBA model but it's 9/14 so far this year in the NBA regular season so I am encouraged.
Still trying to tweak some things. I really hate the last few minutes of an NBA game. If you have the over 185 and it's 100 to 84, the last 30 seconds they just dribble and hug. No shots. Or if you have -4.5 and you are up 9 with a minute to go, your team misses a shot, they get 2, then a quick turnover and a 3, and you lost! All because the last minute your team eased up.
So going to work out a money line vs. spread calculator on certain end game scenarios. Hopefully come up with something that can help absorb some crazy last minute variance.
GL!
0
Thanks Peter and Ich. Best of luck to you guys as well. Still tweaking this NBA model but it's 9/14 so far this year in the NBA regular season so I am encouraged.
Still trying to tweak some things. I really hate the last few minutes of an NBA game. If you have the over 185 and it's 100 to 84, the last 30 seconds they just dribble and hug. No shots. Or if you have -4.5 and you are up 9 with a minute to go, your team misses a shot, they get 2, then a quick turnover and a 3, and you lost! All because the last minute your team eased up.
So going to work out a money line vs. spread calculator on certain end game scenarios. Hopefully come up with something that can help absorb some crazy last minute variance.
Great picks Ich, suprised they had a lot of jump on a b2b night.
Dogs didn't bite, 6 units spent but won back 2.53 on Pitts, and 1.97 on Orlando, so overall only lost 1.5 units even thou went 2/5 singles, and 1 3 game parlay. So lots of good value and ended up only down 1.5u.
Buf @ Hou - Buf ml @ 5.08:1 (+408) - 1 unit - Lost 1 unit
Pit @ NYG - Pit ml @ 2.53:1 (+153) - 1 unit - Won 2.53 units, 1.53 profit
Dal @ Atl - Dal ml @ 2.71:1 (+173) - 1 unit. Lost 1 unit
3 Game parlay - 1 unit - Lost 1 unit
Buf +10.5
Pit +3.5
Dal +3.5
MINN @ TOR - Min +3 - Lose 1 unit
PHX @ ORL - ORL ml @ 1.97:1 - Won 1.97, +0.97 units profit
Overall for Sunday Nov 4th: 2/5 singles, 0/1 3 game parlay
-6u bet + 2.53u + 1.97u = -1.5
OVERALL RECORD: +24.72 UNITS, +$2472
2012 NBA Regular Season Singles Record: 13/19 - 68.4%
Overall Singles Record (MLB, NFL, NBA) 50/89 - 56.2%
Parlays:
0/2 for 2 game parlays - 0%
2/3 for 3 game parlays - 66.6%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%
0/1 for a 7 game Teaser (5/7) - 0%
0
Great picks Ich, suprised they had a lot of jump on a b2b night.
Dogs didn't bite, 6 units spent but won back 2.53 on Pitts, and 1.97 on Orlando, so overall only lost 1.5 units even thou went 2/5 singles, and 1 3 game parlay. So lots of good value and ended up only down 1.5u.
Buf @ Hou - Buf ml @ 5.08:1 (+408) - 1 unit - Lost 1 unit
Pit @ NYG - Pit ml @ 2.53:1 (+153) - 1 unit - Won 2.53 units, 1.53 profit
Dal @ Atl - Dal ml @ 2.71:1 (+173) - 1 unit. Lost 1 unit
3 Game parlay - 1 unit - Lost 1 unit
Buf +10.5
Pit +3.5
Dal +3.5
MINN @ TOR - Min +3 - Lose 1 unit
PHX @ ORL - ORL ml @ 1.97:1 - Won 1.97, +0.97 units profit
Overall for Sunday Nov 4th: 2/5 singles, 0/1 3 game parlay
-6u bet + 2.53u + 1.97u = -1.5
OVERALL RECORD: +24.72 UNITS, +$2472
2012 NBA Regular Season Singles Record: 13/19 - 68.4%
Overall Singles Record (MLB, NFL, NBA) 50/89 - 56.2%
Just to recap and answer a few PMs, there is nothing wrong with parlays. As long as you get a payout greater or equal to the true odds. If you play a 3 teamer, with the odds being picking 3 correct 7:1, and you only get paid 6:1, you are losing. Now, the books make more money on parlays that increase in games. A 4 game parlay true odds (picking 4 right on a 50/50) is 15:1 odds roughly, where a book only pays 10-12:1 on average. So it's best to stick to 2-3 game parlays max where the house edge is small. As well, if you can pick 55% winners, then your true odds of winning plus a 6.5:1 or 7:1 payout at some books with bonus, will give you a positive expectation (+EV).
I have found the best overall +EV bet is picking a correlated double. So the same game, but either the dog to cover and under, or the favorite and over. Obviously this is because if the favorite wins, they usually score a lot and it goes over. Don't pick a big mismatch, but an example is GB vs. ARI. You know GB will put up 30-40pts, and if ARI can get in a few TDs with GB less than stellar D, it will go over and you will get a +265 payout on betting GB+Over.
So always look for value. Vary your bets and bet more on a sport where you have a greater edge that you have been able to quantify over the years. Personally i am good at hockey. Much better then picking winners at NFL. So naturally my unit sizes are greater when i bet NHL money lines then NFL.
0
Just to recap and answer a few PMs, there is nothing wrong with parlays. As long as you get a payout greater or equal to the true odds. If you play a 3 teamer, with the odds being picking 3 correct 7:1, and you only get paid 6:1, you are losing. Now, the books make more money on parlays that increase in games. A 4 game parlay true odds (picking 4 right on a 50/50) is 15:1 odds roughly, where a book only pays 10-12:1 on average. So it's best to stick to 2-3 game parlays max where the house edge is small. As well, if you can pick 55% winners, then your true odds of winning plus a 6.5:1 or 7:1 payout at some books with bonus, will give you a positive expectation (+EV).
I have found the best overall +EV bet is picking a correlated double. So the same game, but either the dog to cover and under, or the favorite and over. Obviously this is because if the favorite wins, they usually score a lot and it goes over. Don't pick a big mismatch, but an example is GB vs. ARI. You know GB will put up 30-40pts, and if ARI can get in a few TDs with GB less than stellar D, it will go over and you will get a +265 payout on betting GB+Over.
So always look for value. Vary your bets and bet more on a sport where you have a greater edge that you have been able to quantify over the years. Personally i am good at hockey. Much better then picking winners at NFL. So naturally my unit sizes are greater when i bet NHL money lines then NFL.
Interesting stuff, I followed you a bit in MLB just to see what you were thinking, didn't really bet though. I wish you luck with NBA and I suggest you stay on your singles because that's where you seem to make your money.
0
Interesting stuff, I followed you a bit in MLB just to see what you were thinking, didn't really bet though. I wish you luck with NBA and I suggest you stay on your singles because that's where you seem to make your money.
You get get 7:1 on a 3 teamer if you have a book that gives a bonus. Bet365 gives +7.5% bonus on 3 teams, or you can take 3 money lines. For example if I find 2 bets at -110 and a money line at +150, but the true odds are +110 (a inflated public team line vs. a sharp dog) then you can get 7:1 on a 3 teamer.
It's not black and white, 1 or 0, the key is just locating value. So if it's a correlated double, a sharp dog, a soft line, or beating the closing line by 10 cents, the point is there is value everywhere you just have to find it and grind it out.
Tonight NBA:
PHX +13.5 @ 1.925
MINN + 7.5 @1.97
INDY + 8.5 @ 1.93
POR DAL OVER 198.5 @ 2.0
1 unit each
GL guys
0
You get get 7:1 on a 3 teamer if you have a book that gives a bonus. Bet365 gives +7.5% bonus on 3 teams, or you can take 3 money lines. For example if I find 2 bets at -110 and a money line at +150, but the true odds are +110 (a inflated public team line vs. a sharp dog) then you can get 7:1 on a 3 teamer.
It's not black and white, 1 or 0, the key is just locating value. So if it's a correlated double, a sharp dog, a soft line, or beating the closing line by 10 cents, the point is there is value everywhere you just have to find it and grind it out.
Good morning guys, 2/4 last night. The Heat are frustrating to bet. They remind me of some of my students. One day they decide to work really hard and put in the effort, and the next, decide to sleep in and coast for a few weeks.
PHX +13.5 @ 1.925 - Lose 1 unit
MINN + 7.5 @1.97 - Win 1.97, 0.97 profit
INDY + 8.5 @ 1.93 - Lose 1 unit
POR DAL OVER 198.5 @ 2.0 - win 2 units, 1 profit
OVERALL RECORD: +24.69 UNITS, +$2469
2012 NBA Regular Season Singles Record: 15/23 - 65.2%
Overall Singles Record (MLB, NFL, NBA) 52/93 - 55.9%
Parlays:
0/2 for 2 game parlays - 0%
2/3 for 3 game parlays - 66.6%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%
0/1 for a 7 game Teaser (5/7) - 0%
0
Good morning guys, 2/4 last night. The Heat are frustrating to bet. They remind me of some of my students. One day they decide to work really hard and put in the effort, and the next, decide to sleep in and coast for a few weeks.
PHX +13.5 @ 1.925 - Lose 1 unit
MINN + 7.5 @1.97 - Win 1.97, 0.97 profit
INDY + 8.5 @ 1.93 - Lose 1 unit
POR DAL OVER 198.5 @ 2.0 - win 2 units, 1 profit
OVERALL RECORD: +24.69 UNITS, +$2469
2012 NBA Regular Season Singles Record: 15/23 - 65.2%
Overall Singles Record (MLB, NFL, NBA) 52/93 - 55.9%
TOR + 8.5 parlayed with under 197 @ 3.60:1 - 1 unit
*Most people reduce the size of their bets if the odds are greater, i.e. taking a big dog. This is OK if you are trying to reduce variance and keep a bankroll stable. However, when I find an edge, I tend to keep my unit sizes the same. Simply being that is exactly why we do this, to find an edge/value. I may not win the ML on the raps, but they should cover, and if they do, it's most likely going to be because of their defending, this should keep it under.
In any case, gl guys
0
Just love the numbers in Raps game:
TOR OKC under 197 @ 1.94 - 1 unit
TOR ML @ 5:1 - 1 unit
TOR + 8.5 parlayed with under 197 @ 3.60:1 - 1 unit
*Most people reduce the size of their bets if the odds are greater, i.e. taking a big dog. This is OK if you are trying to reduce variance and keep a bankroll stable. However, when I find an edge, I tend to keep my unit sizes the same. Simply being that is exactly why we do this, to find an edge/value. I may not win the ML on the raps, but they should cover, and if they do, it's most likely going to be because of their defending, this should keep it under.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
