RazorSharps NBA playoff POY 6/7/2012

14-9 Playoffs (+money)

1-0 Series bets OKC +170

Hello gentleman,

I took a few bad beats a few days ago but I got right back on track yesterday with OKC and the OVER.  Sometimess as a gambler when you lose you have to take a step back and recourse your actions and figure out if what you are doing is working or not and if the situations are being capped correctly. 

I am a stern and fierce believer of situational handicapping.  And by that I mean exactly what is says.....the situation....current events as opposed to past events (although current situations you must also consider the past that got you to that current situation).  All bettors must understand that losing and winning comes with dicipline, you are either disciplined to lose/fail or disciplined to win/succeed.  It has taken me years to beome disciplined at this craft and i still find that I have to pull mysefl back and not get emotional over wins or losses.  This is an investment....A long term investment that one day I will retire from.  But for now as with any other investment careful consideration and calculations must be made.  But every now and then comes along an investment opportunity that cannot and should not be neglected.

This current Heat/Boston Matchup is one I consider to be a situational masterpiece,  two teams one hot and the other on the brink of collapse and failure yet again to it's fans that so highly rated them.  I am reffering to none other than the Miami Heat.

I have capped this situation and it is a fat juicy prime rib of a bet.  One that I foresee going my way rather easily.  It's hard for me to get emotional over betting anymore but this game confounds my inner strengths to stay poised.  As soon as I started capping it I realized it was much like an NFL game I capped 3 years ago agaisnt the Giants and Redskins.  Not to be missed.

Fellow bettors, if you have not bet or are planning to bet tonight please find comfort in my words that the team that will win you your fortune tonight is none other than the Miami Heat.

Boston has been playing smash mouth BB and have made the Heat look real vulnerable these past few games, and now facing elimination must try yo rally behind themselves and a coach that gets no respect from it's players.  But beyond that have had no production from it's bench.  Boston has really played above its level these past few games, as i really dont see them beating the Het in this series, they are not the better team.  Lebron does have pride,and he knows that his talents in South Beach will be yet another joke as he struggles to emulate the great Mike Jordan in trying to win his first Championship.  He has along with Wade been touted and overvalued due to the sheer strength they impose at will on other teams.  I know in my heart andd in this situation that Miami is indeed the play here.  I was actually hoping Boston would win last game in Miami to make this situation exactly how I wanted it  to go, a serious Heat victory.  Boston's level of play has sprouted since the  Sixers series, but they have not faced a Heat team yet IMO capable of dismantling them,  They without a doubt will face that team tonight as Lebron and Wade turn on Beast mode with back against the wall to propel over Boston,  I actually think they prefer this role as they alway seem to pull out all the stops when they are cornered.   Make no doubt about it guys that Boston is in deep shit tonight.  Miami will not fail in it's quest to make it to the Championship game, where a Durant vs Lebron matchup is certainly in the Cards.

I have for the 2nd time this year thrown out financial discipline and will wager significantly more then my normal wager based on this situation, which comes around once in a blue moon.

HEAT ML (-125) 25 Dimes

HEAT -2 (-104) 20 Dimes

I will be in Vegas for the weekend with some buddies for the inevitable game 7. 

GLTA

Quote Originally Posted by monterreymexico:

Is that a pinnochio emeticon??? Aww how cute lol

nice write . razor.but i am on thr other siDe.

G-L-

That just cracks me up for some reason

Have to say, I agree with the majority of your writeup, and really think a wager on Miami boils down to some simple buy-low, sell-high reasoning and the fact that they will surely be better with Bosh playing more of a significant role, and with their backs against the wall trying to avoid the backward sweep, a la SA (must have been an eye-opener for them I would think seeing the Spurs go down).

I could be wrong, but I also believe this is the first playoff game in Boston where the away team (Mia) OPENED as a favorite... possibly meaningless but I am always wary of a line flip (such as in gm 4 where Boston opened as a fave and closed as a dog)... Vegas tipped their hand, IMO, in that case; much harder to say this time around.

Nonetheless, I made the mistake of throwing out my financial discipline on the last game, which I thought they would at least win, and though I killed it last night with OKC from every angle, I am still down on the week and consequently reluctant to hammer this play as you seem willing to.  GL, will definitely be rooting against Boston no matter what.

Incorrect. Gm 4 in Boston, they opened as a favorite.

More importantly, are we all on agreement that tonight's game opened as Mia -1.5? That's all I saw anywhere.

Wow... 45 grand on a hunch is a lot of dough.

I respect the write up but aren't you concernred that this entire series has seen the offence run through either Wade or James and they still lost 3 of 5 so far?  It seemed the entire second half of the last game Miami's offence was all through Wade and Lebron but they still couldn't crack the nut.

Boston has shown an ability to defend those two, and remember they beat them in 3 of the 4 regular season meetings. 

I thin the Heat are two dimensional ... if you defend Wade and James then you essentially have shut them down whereas the celtics have more weapons, better coaching and better discipline in short selection.

I'm passing on the game and look to make some in game bets once I get a feel for the flow and pace.... good luck though ... that is a significant sum of change ... I wish you well.