ROCKETS @ SPURS: GAME 5!!! 10-4 Playoff Run. Write-Up And Pick!

Record: 29-29

2017 Playoffs: 10-4 (Easily my best ever and I'm going for more)

The Pick:

Spurs -5.5 over Rockets

1. Line Reading

I said in the past we can use this to cap a game. And here we will use it as an angle that makes up a piece of the angle puzzle.

Remember I said that the home/road switch for the spread is -6.5 at the low end and -10 at the high end.

Well, I can't even recall when the switch was this high, and that has certainly raised my eyebrows to a side without even capping the two participants.

Last game the Rockets opened at -5.5 pt favorites.

Yesterday, the Spurs opened on 5Dimes as -6 point favorites.

That exceeds the upper bound of the home road switch by 1.5 points!

That, I haven't seen in a long time. Perhaps there are some examples but I don't recall them.

The fact of the matter is here, who in the world is clamoring to take the Spurs with an WHOPPING ELEVEN AND A HALF POINT line swing??? Even if the casual bettor does not know what I am talking about, they sense that is extreme. Too much to hand to the Spurs after last game. 

That tells me, and this is conjecture but standard line reading, that Vegas is asking you to take Houston, JUST as they asked you to take the Bucks +6 in game 5, a game they got thumped. And the Rockets can get thumped here. Because +6 in a playoff game is a big line and Vegas has to have the balls to lay that number knowing squares should be on Houston...

Why?

That leads to Point 2

2. Sharp is the "New Square"

Squares in 2017 know our betting patterns: we look to bet dogs because Vegas traditionally wipes the felt clean when the dog not only covers, but sends all the ML's up in flames with an outright win.

So Squares, in theory, actually bet "Sharp" in spots like this (i.e., Dogs).

So the Sharp side per se, reverts to the old Square side, the favorite. So we actually want to bet "square" (Favorite) which is now "sharp". Got it?

By betting the Spurs, you are actually betting Sharp.

Conjecture, but a fun topic and one I enjoy debating.

And if you don't believe any of this in terms of what the Square sees, defer to the "Recency Effect". What square after seeing the Rockets destroy the Spurs (The most recent game) is clamoring to take the Spurs SU or worse -6!?

Conclusion: Take the Spurs now at, -5.5.

3. The Beverly Boost with Honoring the Deceased Angle.

Beverly's Grandfather passed away hours before the game.

This not only IMPROVES Beverly's performance but rallies the team around him in solidarity. How long this lasts is anyone's guess (For Isaiah Thomas it lasted several games in and out of funeral/wake services).

But Beverly is no Thomas. Thomas is that teams star. As was Favre when his father died and Favre threw for 300+ on Monday Night Football.

Beverly and the team got their boost and have moved on to concentrating on the series IMO. Not necessarily Beverly who can have another good performance, but he can't pour in 53 if need be. The guy defers to scorers, he is not the one scoring.

Worse, Beverly missed all of today's practices at services flying home today and will miss some tomorrow. That matters. Why?

Point 4.

4. The Rockets are going small and have announced it too.

This is a bad thing.

It was a good thing because the Rockets went small after Nene when down last game, surprisingly playing Ryan Anderson at the 5 and Harden on one of the two Spurs bigs.

It completely confused them for moments, and in those moments where they didn't adjust, Harden and Anderson and Gordon were bombing from downtown and hitting everything ballooning the lead to 19 at times in the second half. Game over.

BUT D'Antoni has unwisely told the media he wants stay small, shoot close to 50 threes and not in so many words, use the same gameplan that won them the last game.

This is a problem. A big one. Why? Point 5

5. You don't show your hand to the Mad Genius

Popovic loves situations like this. Coming home and lambasting his team for a horrid performance. Not only will he have the Spurs adjust on the perimeter to limit the 3's in Game 5, he KNOWS Anderson will get increased minutes, as will Wiltjer, as will Montrell Harrell, as will Dekker!

Why does he know? D'Antoni said they'd play small again. Not like they have a choice after Nene went down.

And Nene going down is point 6.

6. The Nene boost

Not only did the Rockets get a boost from Beverly and the Honoring the Deceased Angle, but they got a boost from Nene going down in the same way the Jazz got a boost when Gobert went down in Game 1 vs. the Clippers and they won on a JJ shot at the buzzer; in the same way the Clippers won Game 4 when Blake went down.

Translation: Your Big goes down. You go small. The other team can't adjust fast enough. They didn't gameplan for it. You win. Potentially big. But that big win is more of a mirage than substantive.

The Spurs will be prepared now because they know exactly what Mikey D will do. He said as much. And they'll have the Mad Genius, the best of the best, to prepare them.

Now to the final point.

7. You need to lean on the following players as a Rockets backer:

Capela

Dekker with increased minutes

Wiltjer with increased minutes

Montrell Harrell who may get minutes for Nene

And remember the Spurs rendered other bench small players like Gordon and Lou useless in a Game 4 win. It can happen again.

You do not want to depend on the list above, even GETTING 6.

7 REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS. I have more if necessary.

I was told I was square taking the Bucks +6 in Game 5 so its all conjecture. I said as much.

And I argued that the square play is actually the Rockets for the reasons above. Reread. It's all there.

10 minutes.

Effectively it opened at 6 and doesn't defeat the point.

I just saw he said that: OR BETTER!

Everyone is hitting at 70%+ in the playoffs.

But I won't stop there, OR BETTER.

We're all doing it! That's why YOU'RE here clicking on threads looking for PICKS.